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NWST

Northwestern State 14 at North Texas 44

UNT
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadNWST aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreNWST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG+1.7UNT 97.6%Ethan Mooney 48 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 34 · Q3 7:03
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:03 · Ethan Mooney 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Pregame prior+19.5Home team on offense+24.6Score differential+18.2Garbage-time factor+8.7Blowout margin−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:24: Kaleb Fletcher pass complete to Kendrick Price for 65 yds for a TD, (Eddie Goldina KICK) — NWST win probability +2.7 pts (now 13%) (top driver: NWST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:22: DeAndre Torrey run for 32 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +1.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:30: Scooter Adams run for 36 yds for a TD, (Eddie Goldina KICK) — NWST win probability +4.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q2 3:57: DeAndre Torrey run for 31 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +3.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:47: Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 23 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +5.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5NWST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:44UNT 4th & 4 at NWST 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.2%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:22NWST 4th & 1 at UNT 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:32NWST 4th & 4 at NWST 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:48UNT 4th & 17 at NWST 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:12UNT 4th & 5 at NWST 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:47NWST 4th & 21 at NWST 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:03UNT 4th & 8 at NWST 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:20NWST 4th & 9 at NWST 40, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00NWST 4th & 1 at NWST 34, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:28NWST 4th & 11 at UNT 43, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:48UNT 4th & 5 at NWST 5, up 27
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NWST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:30UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:24NWST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:22UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:30NWST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:57UNT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:47UNT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:05UNT Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NWSTDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 41 yds · 1:278% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
92.2%
Kaleb Fletcher pass complete to Scooter Adams for a loss of 4 yards to the NWSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+43
92.2%
Jay Griffin IV run for 43 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
91.7%
Scooter Adams run for 2 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2MISSED FG
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:4992% → 91%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
91.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 11 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
91.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 4
50
+10
91.9%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Tommy Bush for 10 yds to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
91.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NWSt 39Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
91.9%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+51
91.4%
Ethan Mooney 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 52 yds · 4:419% → 11%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
91.1%
Kaleb Fletcher pass complete to Scooter Adams for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 31Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+8
91.1%
Kaleb Fletcher run for 8 yds to the NWSt 39Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+15
91.0%
Kaleb Fletcher pass complete to Scooter Adams for 15 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
91.0%
Scooter Adams run for 15 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
90.9%
Kaleb Fletcher sacked by Gabriel Murphy for 0 yards to the NoTex 38Similar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
90.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 5 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+2
91.0%
Kaleb Fletcher run for 2 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 1
OPP 11
-3
89.5%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 1:5290% → 91%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+32
89.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 32 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
90.0%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
89.9%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 15 yds to the NWSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
90.1%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+13
90.0%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 13 yds to the NWSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
91.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 24 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:589% → 9%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
90.6%
Kaleb Fletcher pass complete to Gavin Landry for 6 yds to the NWSt 14Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 4
OWN 14
0
90.6%
Kaleb Fletcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 4
OWN 14
0
90.7%
Kaleb Fletcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 4
OWN 14
0
90.7%
Scotty Roblow punt for 48 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Torrey at the NoTex 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:4491% → 90%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
90.7%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+17
90.6%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 17 yds to the NWSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
90.9%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 9 yds to the NWSt 36Similar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
90.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 1 yd to the NWSt 31Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 17
OPP 39
0
90.5%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 17
OPP 39
0
89.6%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 7TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:3610% → 13%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
89.6%
Kaleb Fletcher run for no gain to the NWSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+12
89.8%
Kaleb Fletcher pass complete to Scooter Adams for 12 yds to the NWSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.4%
Kaleb Fletcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+65
86.8%
Kaleb Fletcher pass complete to Kendrick Price for 65 yds for a TD, (Eddie Goldina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:5287% → 90%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
87.4%
Jace Ruder run for 1 yd to the NoTex 33Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
87.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+12
87.2%
Jace Ruder pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 12 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
87.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the NWSt 46Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+14
88.0%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 14 yds to the NWSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
89.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 32 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0090% → 90%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
89.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NWSt 24Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+3
89.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NWSt 21Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
89.7%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:12
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
89.7%
Ethan Mooney 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:2111% → 10%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.4%
Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the NWSt 25Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.5%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the NWSt 26Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
89.7%
#2 K.Fletcher pass to the left incomplete intended for #1 K.Price Jr. thrown to the NSU45, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on #1 K.Davis enforced 15 yards from the NSU26 to the NSU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
89.1%
Scooter Adams run for 4 yds to the NWSt 45Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
88.9%
Kaleb Fletcher sacked by KD Davis for 0 yards to the NWSt 37Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
89.7%
Kaleb Fletcher sacked by KD Davis for 0 yards to the NWSt 30Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 21
OWN 30
0
90.0%
Scotty Roblow punt for 53 yds, downed at the NoTex 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:2889% → 89%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
89.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
89.4%
Jace Ruder pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 12TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 0:4911% → 16%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
88.7%
Kaleb Fletcher pass complete to Gavin Landry for 4 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
88.6%
Kaleb Fletcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+11
88.7%
#2 K.Fletcher pass to the right incomplete intended for #1 K.Price Jr. thrown to the UNT40, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on #7 U.Stout enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards from the UNT36 to the UNT36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
88.5%
Kaleb Fletcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
83.8%
Scooter Adams run for 36 yds for a TD, (Eddie Goldina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3385% → 90%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
85.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 7 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
85.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 7 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+10
86.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 10 yds to the NWSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
86.6%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+14
86.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 14 yds to the NWSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
86.9%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the NWSt 31Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+31
89.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 31 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 14END OF HALF
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:1811% → 13%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.1%
Kaleb Fletcher pass complete to Scooter Adams for 4 yds to the NWSt 29Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
88.8%
Kaleb Fletcher run for 4 yds to the NWSt 33Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
88.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds to the NWSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
88.8%
Scooter Adams run for 8 yds to the NWSt 43Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
88.3%
Kaleb Fletcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
88.5%
Kaleb Fletcher pass complete to LC Greenwood for 4 yds to the NWSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
88.3%
Kaleb Fletcher run for 7 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
87.9%
Scooter Adams run for no gain to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+6
88.3%
Scooter Adams run for 6 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
88.1%
Scooter Adams run for 2 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-1
87.4%
Kaleb Fletcher pass complete to Scooter Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
89.4%
Jace Ruder pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3812% → 12%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
87.8%
Scooter Adams run for 4 yds to the NWSt 48Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+13
87.6%
Kaleb Fletcher pass complete to Scooter Adams for 13 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
87.4%
Scooter Adams run for 11 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
86.7%
#2 K.Fletcher sacked for a loss of 4 yards at the UNT32 (#1 K.Davis;#9 G.Murphy), score nullified by penalty. PENALTY NSU Chop Block on #15 K.Perkins enforced 15 yards from the UNT28 to the UNT43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 25
OPP 43
+5
87.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 5 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 20
OPP 38
-5
87.9%
#2 K.Fletcher pass to the left incomplete intended for #18 J.Griffin thrown to the UNT6, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY Before the snap, NSU Illegal Shift on #18 J.Griffin enforced 5 yards from the UNT38 to the UNT43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 25
OPP 43
+2
88.4%
Scooter Adams run for 2 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:2490% → 96%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
89.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 11 yds to the NWSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
90.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NWSt 45Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
90.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the NWSt 39Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
89.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NWSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
90.1%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the NWSt 36Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+11
90.1%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Tommy Bush for 11 yds to the NWSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
90.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NWSt 22Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-1
90.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 23Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+23
95.7%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 23 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 18INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:316% → 6%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.3%
Kevin Perkins run for 4 yds to the NWSt 29Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
94.2%
Kaleb Fletcher pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19FG
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1396% → 98%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
96.0%
#25 I.Ragsdale rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the NSU31 (#49 R.Moser), score nullified by penalty. PENALTY UNT Holding on #72 M.Mose enforced 10 yards from the NSU33 to the NSU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+3
95.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NWSt 40Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 17
OPP 40
+9
95.9%
Jace Ruder run for 9 yds to the NWSt 31Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
95.9%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+48
97.6%
Ethan Mooney 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:373% → 2%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
97.5%
Curtis Williams run for 12 yds to the NWSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
97.4%
Kaleb Fletcher pass complete to Jacob Logan for 1 yd to the NWSt 40Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
97.4%
Kaleb Fletcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
97.5%
Kaleb Fletcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
97.7%
Scotty Roblow punt for 52 yds, downed at the NoTex 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 5:1598% → 100%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
97.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 14 yds to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
97.9%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
97.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+13
97.9%
Jace Ruder run for 13 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 39Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+17
98.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 17 yds to the NWSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
98.0%
Isaiah Johnson run for 8 yds to the NWSt 36Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+1
98.0%
Isaiah Johnson run for 1 yd to the NWSt 35Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
97.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NWSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
98.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the NWSt 30Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
98.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the NWSt 27Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+7
97.9%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jake Roberts for 7 yds to the NWSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.8%
Isaiah Johnson run for 20 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:320% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Scooter Adams run for 2 yds to the NWSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
99.9%
Kaleb Fletcher run for 5 yds to the NWSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Zachary Clement run for 2 yds to the NWSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Zachary Clement run for 3 yds to the NWSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
99.9%
Zachary Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+8
99.9%
Curtis Williams run for 8 yds to the NWSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+14
99.9%
Zachary Clement run for 14 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Zachary Clement pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Curtis Williams run for 3 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Zachary Clement sacked by Kameron Hill for 0 yards to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Scotty Roblow punt for 27 yds, downed at the NoTex 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23FG
14 plays · 79 yds · 4:40100% → 100%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
99.9%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 14Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 12
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+45
99.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 45 yds to the NWSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
99.9%
#2 A.Aune pass up the middle incomplete intended for #11 D.Brown broken up by #23 K.Leachman at the NSU11, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY NSU Pass Interference on #23 K.Leachman enforced 15 yards from the NSU41 to the NSU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
99.9%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 7 yds to the NWSt 19Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+4
99.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the NWSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for no gain to the NWSt 15Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+6
99.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 6 yds to the NWSt 9Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 4
OPP 9
0
99.9%
#0 E.Mooney field goal attempt from 26 yards NO GOOD (wide left) [kick was spotted at NSU16], score nullified by penalty. PENALTY NSU Offsides on #7 W.Hooper enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the NSU9 to the NSU5 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.9%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the NWSt 3Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
99.9%
Austin Aune run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 5Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
99.9%
Ethan Mooney 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 74 yds · 5:480% → 0%
Q4 5:48
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-10
99.9%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 20Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+12
100.0%
Trevor Morgan run for 12 yds to the NoTex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:47
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 23 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q2 6:30
Scooter Adams run for 36 yds for a TD, (Eddie Goldina KICK)
-4.7
TD · Q2 3:57
DeAndre Torrey run for 31 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com