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WKU

Western Kentucky 41 at UTSA 49

UTSA
2021 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2021 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Lucas Dean punt for 47 yds , Jerreth Sterns returns for no gain to the WKent 14 Jerreth Sterns fumbled, recovered by TexSA Donyai Taylor
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Home team on offense+13.3Score differential+6.2Garbage-time factor+4.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Pregame prior+1.6Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:13: Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 14 yds for a TD WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside (Jeremy Darvin) declined, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +9.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:01: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 13 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WKU win probability +9.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:01: Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bailey Zappe pass to Jerreth Sterns for Two-Point Conversion) — WKU win probability +11.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:18: Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 28 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +9.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:58: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 34 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +11.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:07WKU 4th & 6 at UTSA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:00UTSA 4th & 1 at WKU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.9%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:21WKU 4th & 8 at UTSA 35, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:54WKU 4th & 11 at WKU 47, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:09UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 48, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:07WKU 4th & 6 at UTSA 35, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 37, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:17WKU 4th & 6 at UTSA 12, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:17UTSA 4th & 1 at WKU 47, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.9%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:11UTSA 4th & 11 at WKU 29, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:01UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.0%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:18WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 32, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:00UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 38, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:05WKU 4th & 8 at WKU 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 14:04WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:49UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:59UTSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:50UTSA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:10UTSA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:13UTSA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:16UTSA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:17WKU Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:01WKU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:01WKU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:18UTSA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:58WKU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.7%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 0:5647% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
53.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
53.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Joey BeljanSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+10
53.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 10 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
53.3%
Bailey Zappe run for 8 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+60
53.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 60 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1553% → 54%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
53.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
53.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
53.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 14 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
53.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+23
53.2%
Frank Harris run for 23 yds to the WKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
53.2%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 24Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+24
54.2%
Frank Harris run for 24 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:4246% → 47%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
53.6%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+45
53.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 45 yds to the TexSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
53.1%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
53.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Noah Whittington for 4 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
53.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
53.3%
Brayden Narveson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:0853% → 57%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
53.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 16 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
53.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
53.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
53.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+13
53.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 13 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
54.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
54.0%
Brenden Brady run for 5 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+4
53.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the WKent 22Similar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+2
53.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the WKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
54.4%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
54.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 8 yds to the WKent 12Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+10
53.9%
Joshua Cephus pass complete to Frank Harris for 10 yds to the WKent 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
54.4%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the WKent 2Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5FG
18 plays · 59 yds · 5:0243% → 45%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
56.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 9 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
56.0%
Jerreth Sterns run for 2 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
56.2%
Noah Whittington run for 8 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+13
55.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 13 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
55.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
55.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-5
55.9%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Daewood Davis) to the TexSA 48Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 15
OPP 48
+16
56.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 16 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
55.0%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+4
54.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 4 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
54.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 19 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
54.9%
Bailey Zappe run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 4Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
54.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the TexSA 16 TEAM fumbled, recovered by WKent Bailey ZappeSimilar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
55.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 0
OPP 16
0
55.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+34
54.7%
Brayden Narveson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0756% → 63%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.8%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+21
55.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 21 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
57.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
57.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian ClarkSimilar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+7
57.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
57.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 6 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+24
57.9%
Brenden Brady pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 24 yds to the WKent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
63.1%
Brenden Brady run for 6 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7MISSED FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:2937% → 36%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
62.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 38 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
60.7%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 42Similar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 15
OPP 42
0
61.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley, broken up by Tariq WoolenSimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 15
OPP 42
-8
61.8%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Clarence Hicks for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 23
50
+15
62.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 15 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+53
64.0%
Brayden Narveson 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
72.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 65 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:1631% → 26%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
69.3%
TEAM run for no gain to the WKent 25 TEAM fumbled, recovered by WKent Bailey ZappeSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 33
OWN 25
+10
70.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 10 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 23
OWN 35
+12
71.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 12 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
74.1%
John Haggerty III punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 4:3776% → 82%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
75.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+14
75.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 14 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
76.4%
HARRIS, Frank crossing pass complete to FRANKLIN, Z. for 14 yards to the WKU48 (Edwards, Miguel), PENALTY UTSA ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, PENALTY WKU roughing passer off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
76.4%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-2
76.3%
Brenden Brady run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+11
75.5%
Frank Harris run for 11 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
76.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the WKent 48Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+6
76.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 6 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-15
75.8%
HARRIS, Frank sideline pass complete to CARDENAS, Oscar for 5 yards to the WKU37, out-of-bounds (Kincade, Antwon), PENALTY UTSA pass interference (FRANKLIN, Z.) 15 yards to the UTSA43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 18
OWN 43
+10
82.8%
Frank Harris run for 10 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 8
OPP 47
-5
82.1%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 48Similar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
82.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterns at the WKent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 1:0316% → 18%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+16
84.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 16 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
84.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 18 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
83.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 14 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
79.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi Corley, broken up by Jahmal SamSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
82.2%
Bailey Zappe run for 4 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
78.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+53
81.8%
Brayden Narveson 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
82.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 6 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
80.8%
Frank Harris run for 5 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
81.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-2
81.3%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
80.3%
Frank Harris run for no gain to the TexSA 37Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
79.3%
Lucas Dean punt for 47 yds , Jerreth Sterns returns for no gain to the WKent 14 Jerreth Sterns fumbled, recovered by TexSA Donyai TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:4584% → 94%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
83.9%
Frank Harris run for no gain to the WKent 14Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
93.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 14 yds for a TD WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside (Jeremy Darvin) declined, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.4%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the WKent 20Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
92.5%
Bailey Zappe pass intercepted Antonio Parks return for 10 yds to the WKent 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
98.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 17 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
98.4%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Sincere McCormick) to the TexSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 1:591% → 7%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
98.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 1 yd to the WKent 35Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
98.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+14
98.7%
Bailey Zappe run for 14 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+35
98.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 35 yds to the TexSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
98.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 4 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
98.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Joey BeljanSimilar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
98.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns, broken up by Tariq WoolenSimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+12
92.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 12 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.6%
Brenden Brady run for 9 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
94.7%
Brenden Brady run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
94.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 11 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
95.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
95.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+7
94.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 7 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
94.7%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the WKent 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:175% → 15%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
94.9%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Daewood Davis) to the WKent 41Similar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+9
95.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 6
50
+2
94.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+15
94.9%
Zappe, Bailey sideline pass incomplete to Corley, Malachi (WISDOM, Rashad), PENALTY UTSA targeting (WISDOM, Rashad) 15 yards to the UTSA33, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
94.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
94.1%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Noah WhittingtonSimilar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+16
94.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 16 yds to the TexSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
94.1%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
84.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 13 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20MISSED FG
15 plays · 46 yds · 5:5091% → 95%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 9 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
91.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
91.6%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
91.8%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian Clark, broken up by Darius ShippSimilar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
91.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 8 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
91.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
91.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Leroy Watson for 11 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
92.0%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the WKent 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
93.3%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+14
93.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 14 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
93.3%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the WKent 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-5
93.3%
Frank Harris sacked by Brodric Martin and DeAngelo Malone for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+4
93.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q4 12:11
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+46
94.6%
Hunter Duplessis 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:109% → 23%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
90.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh Sterns, broken up by Kelechi NwachukuSimilar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+50
91.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 50 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
88.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Noah Whittington for 7 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+13
88.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 13 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.7%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bailey Zappe pass to Jerreth Sterns for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4385% → 97%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.8%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.4%
Frank Harris run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
83.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 16 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
86.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-1
86.7%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 43Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+6
85.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 6 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+10
85.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 10 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
87.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+4
87.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
96.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 28 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 2:205% → 16%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
94.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-5
95.1%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Charles Wiley for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 23Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+4
95.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 11
OWN 27
+5
95.4%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Defensive offside (Charles Wiley) to the WKent 32Similar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 6
OWN 32
-7
95.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 8 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Corey Mayfield Jr.) to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
94.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
50
+16
95.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 16 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley, broken up by Corey Mayfield Jr.Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
83.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 34 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24PUNT
13 plays · 13 yds · 1:5893% → 96%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
93.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
93.1%
HARRIS, Frank deep pass incomplete to FRANKLIN, Z., PENALTY WKU offside defense (Brathwaite, Jr.) 5 yards to the UTSA36, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
93.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 1
OWN 45
-5
95.6%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Jalyn Galmore) to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-1
95.5%
Frank Harris run for 9 yds to the TexSA 49 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive holding (Joshua Cephus) to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
95.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-3
96.5%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
95.8%
Lucas Dean punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25INT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:585% → 6%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
95.1%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
95.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 7 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-5
94.9%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Clarence Hicks for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 24Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+19
95.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 19 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
94.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 10 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
93.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
94.1%
Bailey Zappe pass intercepted Jahmal Sam return for no gain to the TexSA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:01
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bailey Zappe pass to Jerreth Sterns for Two-Point Conversion)
-11.7
TD · Q4 3:58
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 34 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q3 11:13
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 14 yds for a TD WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside (Jeremy Darvin) declined, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com