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VAN

Vanderbilt 21 at Tennessee 45

TENN
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jaylen Wright run for 11 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:22: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 24 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 56 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — VAN win probability +2.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:27: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 46 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +2.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:28: Rocko Griffin run for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — VAN win probability +2.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:28: Timeout TENNESSEE, clock 06:28 — TENN win probability +2.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5VAN made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 10:41VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:25TENN 4th & 2 at VAN 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:20VAN 4th & 9 at TENN 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:47TENN 4th & 13 at VAN 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:15VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:15TENN 4th & 1 at VAN 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:28VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:28TENN 4th & 2 at VAN 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:07VAN 4th & 20 at VAN 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:42TENN 4th & 8 at VAN 14, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:27VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 47, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00VAN 4th & 5 at TENN 28, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00VAN 4th & 1 at TENN 34, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:12VAN 4th & 1 at TENN 6, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:08VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 25, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:55VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q2 9:05TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:22TENN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:00VAN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:27TENN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:28VAN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:12TENN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:17VAN Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:12TENN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1INT TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:404% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.4%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
96.4%
Cam Johnson run for no gain to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
96.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 14 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
96.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 2
50
0
96.1%
Mike Wright pass intercepted for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:394% → 4%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.1%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the Vandy 24Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
96.1%
Mike Wright run for no gain to the Vandy 24Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
96.1%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:41
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+50
95.9%
Harrison Smith punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 21 , Velus Jones Jr. returns for 50 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1696% → 96%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
96.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 5 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+1
96.0%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Vandy 15Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+2
96.0%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+1
95.8%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Vandy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 45 yds · 5:054% → 5%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
95.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 8 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+6
95.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 6 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
95.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+9
95.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 9 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.7%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Devin Boddie Jr.Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+17
95.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 17 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
95.6%
James Ziglor III run for 4 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-5
95.6%
PENALTY VAN False Start (Hernandez,Julian) 5 yards from TEN40 to TEN45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+2
95.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 2 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
95.7%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
94.9%
Harrison Smith punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 2:3395% → 94%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
95.0%
Hendon Hooker run for 1 yd to the Tenn 15Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+7
95.0%
Jabari Small run for 7 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+14
95.0%
Jabari Small run for 14 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
95.1%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+14
95.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 14 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
95.3%
PENALTY TEN Encroachment (Payton,JaVonta) 5 yards from VAN46 to TEN49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+3
95.1%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+1
95.2%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 13
OPP 49
0
95.1%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jacob WarrenSimilar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
94.3%
Paxton Brooks punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:326% → 6%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
94.5%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the Vandy 7Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+4
94.5%
Mike Wright run for 4 yds to the Vandy 11Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+1
94.3%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the Vandy 12Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 12
+3
94.3%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
94.1%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
94.1%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Devin Boddie Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
94.3%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
94.0%
Harrison Smith punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7TD
14 plays · 59 yds · 4:1095% → 96%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
95.1%
Hendon Hooker run for 7 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+8
95.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 8 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
95.1%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
95.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 12 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.1%
Hendon Hooker run for no gain to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
95.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 7 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+2
94.9%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+3
94.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
95.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 4 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+10
95.0%
Hendon Hooker run for 10 yds to the Vandy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.0%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.3%
Jabari Small run for 6 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:375% → 5%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.2%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
95.2%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
95.2%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr.Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
95.2%
Harrison Smith punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:0697% → 98%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.5%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
96.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 5 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+3
96.4%
Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+6
96.2%
Hendon Hooker run for 6 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
96.6%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+14
96.5%
Jabari Small run for 14 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
96.2%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+1
96.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the Vandy 24Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+24
98.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 24 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 2:152% → 2%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.6%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
97.5%
Mike Wright sacked by Jaylen McCollough for a loss of 10 yards to the Vandy 18Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+3
97.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to James Ziglor III for 3 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
97.8%
Harrison Smith punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Velus Jones Jr. at the Tenn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:2599% → 98%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
98.5%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric Tillman for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Personal Foul (Anfernee Orji) to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
98.5%
Hendon Hooker run for 13 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
98.5%
Jabari Small run for 15 yds to the Vandy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
98.4%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
98.4%
Jabari Small run for no gain to the Vandy 14Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
98.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
98.3%
Chase McGrath 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:422% → 4%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.8%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
97.8%
Rocko Griffin run for 15 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
95.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 56 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3396% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
95.8%
Hendon Hooker run for 29 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
98.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 46 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:593% → 5%
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.5%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
97.4%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
97.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 9 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
97.4%
Rocko Griffin run for 6 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
97.3%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
97.2%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the Vandy 47Similar
Q3 14:27
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+3
97.3%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
50
0
97.2%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 10
50
+12
97.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 12 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
97.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 6 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+1
96.9%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the Tenn 31Similar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-5
97.1%
Griffin,Rocko rush for 10 yards gain to the TEN21, End Of Play PENALTY VAN Illegal Shift 5 yards from TEN31 to TEN36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+23
97.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 23 yds to the Tenn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
95.1%
Rocko Griffin run for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:1698% → 100%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
97.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 3 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+14
97.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 14 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
97.7%
Jabari Small run for 14 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+23
97.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Princeton Fant for 23 yds to the Vandy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.5%
Jabari Small run for 11 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16TD
23 plays · 75 yds · 10:552% → 3%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.8%
Mike Wright run for 8 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
97.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
97.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 4 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
97.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+16
97.5%
Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Jeremy Banks) to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
97.7%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
97.7%
Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the Tenn 42Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+8
98.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 8 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.3%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+13
98.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 13 yds to the Tenn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
98.2%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+1
98.4%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
98.3%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+5
98.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 5 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+11
98.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 11 yds to the Tenn 6Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
98.7%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the Tenn 6Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+4
98.5%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the Tenn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
98.3%
PENALTY VAN False Start 5 yards from TEN02 to TEN07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
98.5%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the Tenn 4Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.8%
Mike Wright run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17FUMBLE
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:3499% → 99%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+15
99.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 15 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.3%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete pass complete to for 4 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
99.3%
Jabari Small run for 12 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
99.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 13 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
99.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 10 yds to the Vandy 10 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Ollie Lane) to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
99.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 9 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
99.2%
Jaylen Wright run for no gain to the Vandy 16Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+5
99.4%
Joe Milton III run for 5 yds to the Vandy 21 Joe Milton III fumbled, forced by Anfernee Orji, recovered by Vandy Christian JamesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:352% → 2%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
98.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 4 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Justin BallSimilar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr.Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 6
OWN 25
-9
98.5%
Mike Wright sacked by Byron Young for a loss of 9 yards to the Vandy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:5699% → 100%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
99.4%
Jaylen Wright run for 11 yds to the Vandy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
99.3%
PENALTY TEN False Start (Mays,Cooper) 5 yards from VAN05 to VAN10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 10 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 17 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.6%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
99.6%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Gavin SchoenwaldSimilar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+2
99.6%
Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
99.6%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 28 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
99.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 7 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+10
99.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 10 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
99.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 11 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:28
Timeout TENNESSEE, clock 06:28
+2.4
TD · Q3 14:27
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 46 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 4:22
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 24 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com