2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:11 · Kai Kroeger punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:10: Kobe Pace run for 34 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +6.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 3:17: D.J. Uiagalelei run for 5 yds to the Clem 6 — CLEM win probability +3.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:19: Jason Brown pass incomplete to Dakereon Joyner — SC win probability +4.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:05: B.T. Potter 47 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +6.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:24: B.T. Potter 49 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 6 of 13CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 9:44SC 4th & 13 at SC 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snapGo for it24.4%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.7%average punt
- Q1 7:11SC 4th & 8 at SC 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snapGo for it24.7%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.9%average punt
- Q1 5:00CLEM 4th & 8 at SC 38, up 7Close callPunted · 74.9% before the snapGo for it74.9%35% to convertField goal74.8%−0.138% to makePuntTheir call74.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:40CLEM 4th & 9 at SC 12, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snapGo for it74.1%−0.327% to convertField goalTheir call74.4%86% to makePunt72.2%−2.2average punt
- Q1 0:18SC 4th & 2 at SC 33, down 10Close callPunted · 24.2% before the snapGo for it24.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 10:19SC 4th & 7 at CLEM 42, down 17Close callPunted · 19.3% before the snapGo for it19.3%37% to convertField goal18.6%−0.630% to makePuntTheir call19.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:19SC 4th & 7 at CLEM 42, down 17Close callPunted · 19.3% before the snapGo for it19.3%37% to convertField goal18.6%−0.630% to makePuntTheir call19.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:54CLEM 4th & 1 at SC 36, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.9%71% to convertField goal82.0%−1.942% to makePunt81.6%−2.3average punt
- Q2 0:19CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 31, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snapGo for it84.7%−0.852% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.5%average punt
- Q3 13:10SC 4th & 5 at SC 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snapGo for it14.5%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.8%average punt
- Q3 9:05CLEM 4th & 7 at SC 32, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snapGo for it87.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call87.3%51% to makePunt86.3%−1.0average punt
- Q3 5:13SC 4th & 10 at SC 40, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%average punt
- Q3 3:22CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 5, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snapGo for it94.5%−1.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.6%average punt
- Q3 1:05SC 4th & 14 at CLEM 41, down 20Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.1%−0.719% to convertField goal4.4%−0.432% to makePunt4.8%average punt
- Q4 12:24CLEM 4th & 9 at SC 32, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.6%−0.232% to convertField goalTheir call96.8%51% to makePunt96.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 12:16SC 4th & 1 at CLEM 44, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%70% to convertField goal1.7%−0.827% to makePunt2.0%−0.6average punt
- Q4 6:45SC 4th & 5 at CLEM 33, down 23Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%−<0.142% to convertField goal1.3%49% to makePunt1.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 6:10CLEM 4th & 14 at CLEM 36, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.318% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q4 5:43SC 4th & 10 at SC 25, down 23Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.0%average punt
- Q4 5:43SC 4th & 10 at SC 25, down 23Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.0%average punt
- Q4 2:30CLEM 4th & 2 at SC 6, up 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.2%52% to convertField goal99.1%−0.191% to makePunt98.7%−0.6average punt
- Q4 2:30SC 4th & 2 at CLEM 40, down 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%57% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.134% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 11:44CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.1%97% to makeGo for two75.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:10CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.2%97% to makeGo for two80.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:30CLEM Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD8 plays · 73 yds · 3:1179% → 78%
SCDrive 2PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 2:0022% → 22%
CLEMDrive 3INT2 plays · 9 yds · 0:5078% → 78%
SCDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4322% → 23%
Q1 8:54
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
22.2%
Jason Brown pass complete to Jaheim Bell for no gain to the SCaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 2:1178% → 77%
Q1 7:11
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-5
22.1%
Uiagalelei,DJ rush for 3 yards gain to the USC30 (Pickens,Zacch; Roderick,R.J.) PENALTY CLE Illegal Formation 5 yards from USC33 to USC38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
23.0%
Will Spiers punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Josh Vann at the SCaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:5823% → 23%
CLEMDrive 7FG4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2277% → 77%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:2223% → 23%
CLEMDrive 9TD7 plays · 79 yds · 2:5077% → 84%
SCDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 38 yds · 1:5118% → 18%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
17.6%
Jason Brown pass complete to E.J. Jenkins for 30 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
17.9%
Kai Kroeger punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Will Brown at the Clem 10Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
17.9%
Kai Kroeger punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Will Brown at the Clem 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11DOWNS9 plays · 59 yds · 4:2584% → 86%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+37
15.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Dacari Collins for 37 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12INT5 plays · 12 yds · 2:3717% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 2:5886% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14END OF HALF3 plays · 18 yds · 0:1916% → 15%
SCDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3914% → 14%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
14.4%
Jason Brown pass complete to ZaQuandre White for 7 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
14.9%
Jason Brown pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 2 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
13.7%
Kai Kroeger punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Will Brown at the Clem 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16FG9 plays · 34 yds · 4:0587% → 94%
SCDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 3:439% → 7%
CLEMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5196% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19DOWNS5 plays · -4 yds · 2:175% → 4%
Q3 3:22
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-10
5.6%
Harris,Kevin rush for 9 yards gain to the CLE20 (Turner,Nolan), out of bounds PENALTY USC Holding (Lee,Vershon) 10 yards from CLE29 to CLE39. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20FG7 plays · 27 yds · 3:4197% → 98%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+26
3.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Brown for 26 yds to the SCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
2.7%
Shipley,Will rush for 11 yards gain to the USC22 (Dial,Marcellas), out of bounds PENALTY CLE Holding (Ennis,Sage) 10 yards from USC33 to USC43. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21DOWNS14 plays · 41 yds · 5:312% → 1%
Q4 12:16
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+6
2.2%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Josh Vann for 6 yds to the SCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
2.2%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Josh Vann for 16 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
2.5%
PENALTY USC False Start (Nichols,Jaylen) 5 yards from CLE38 to CLE43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+3
2.4%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 3 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 5
OPP 33
-7
1.3%
Zeb Noland sacked by K.J. Henry for a loss of 7 yards to the Clem 40 Zeb Noland fumbled, recovered by SCaro Zeb Noland , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
Q4 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
1.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Swinney for 5 yds to the Clem 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23DOWNS5 plays · 0 yds · 0:271% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24TD7 plays · 25 yds · 3:1399% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 25END OF GAME11 plays · 72 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.1%
Noland,Zeb pass incomplete to Muse,Nick QB hurried by Capehart,DeMonte PENALTY CLE Personal Foul (Swint,Kevin) 15 yards from USC25 to USC40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
0.0%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 12 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
0.0%
Zeb Noland pass complete to ZaQuandre White for 9 yds to the Clem 39Similar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
0.1%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Nick Muse for 22 yds to the Clem 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:10
Kobe Pace run for 34 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
-6.4
FG · Q3 9:05
B.T. Potter 47 yd FG GOOD
-6.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:19
Jason Brown pass incomplete to Dakereon Joyner
+4.3