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MISS

Ole Miss 31 at Mississippi State 21

MSST
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2021 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.6MSST 53.7%Cale Nation 25 Yd Field GoalAWAY 3 - HOME 3 · Q1 7:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:07 · Cale Nation 25 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Pregame prior+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:21: Snoop Conner 1 Yd Run (Cale Nation Kick) — MISS win probability +10.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:24: Snoop Conner 1 Yd Run (Cale Nation Kick) — MISS win probability +12.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:17: Matt Corral 4 Yd Run (Cale Nation Kick) — MISS win probability +11.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:20: Jaden Walley 11 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick) — MSST win probability +12.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:27: Jo'quavious Marks 11 Yd Run (Will Rogers Pass to Makai Polk for Two-Point Conversion) — MSST win probability +7.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:01MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:46MSST 4th & 5 at MISS 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:07MISS 4th & 8 at MSST 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:55MSST 4th & 11 at MISS 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:03MISS 4th & 8 at MSST 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:46MSST 4th & 6 at MISS 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:59MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:20MSST 4th & 16 at MSST 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−3.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:03MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:16MSST 4th & 7 at MISS 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    25.0%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:50MISS 4th & 4 at MSST 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    77.1%−0.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:20MSST 4th & 5 at midfield, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:43MSST 4th & 1 at MISS 20, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:19MISS 4th & 2 at MSST 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−1.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:05MSST 4th & 1 at MISS 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%−0.9
    89% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 2:21MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:24MISS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:17MISS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:20MSST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:35MISS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:27MSST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5147% → 47%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
53.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
53.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 11 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-1
53.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5954% → 54%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
53.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 8 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+4
53.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
54.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
54.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 7
OPP 18
-5
54.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Scott Lashley) to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+7
54.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
54.2%
Nolan McCord 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:1746% → 46%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+29
54.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 29 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
53.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 6 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+11
53.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 11 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
53.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+3
53.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 3 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+11
54.2%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Nathaniel Watson) to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
54.0%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the MisSt 5Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
53.9%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the MisSt 3Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-5
54.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Jeremy James) to the MisSt 8Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
54.3%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the MisSt 8Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
53.7%
Cale Nation 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 5:4754% → 56%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
54.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 11 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
55.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
55.2%
J.J. Jernighan run for 4 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
55.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
55.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 5 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
55.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+6
55.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
56.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+20
56.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 20 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
56.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q1 2:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-8
56.5%
Will Rogers sacked by Mark Robinson for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 15Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+4
55.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q1 0:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
56.0%
Nolan McCord 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 2:4244% → 43%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
56.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
56.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 9 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
55.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
55.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Eli Acker) to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+6
56.4%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+12
56.1%
Matt Corral run for 12 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
54.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
55.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 2 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
55.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
56.8%
Mac Brown punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6MISSED FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 5:1156% → 59%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
56.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 12 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
56.8%
Johnson, Dillon rush for 1 yard to the MISSSTATE33, PENALTY OLEMISS offside 5 yards to the MISSSTATE37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+5
58.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
58.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
58.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
58.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
59.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+23
58.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 23 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
60.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
61.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for no gain to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
60.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
58.9%
Nolan McCord 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
16 plays · 78 yds · 5:1942% → 55%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
57.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
58.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+9
58.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 9 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-12
57.5%
Matt Corral sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 12 yards to the Miss 22 OLE MISS Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 22
OWN 22
+26
58.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 26 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
56.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+16
55.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 16 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
54.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 3 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-1
55.0%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+16
56.4%
Snoop Conner run for 16 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
55.0%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
55.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 5 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
56.0%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
54.8%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
54.8%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.7%
Snoop Conner 1 Yd Run (Cale Nation Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8MISSED FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 1:5949% → 50%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
48.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
48.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+19
47.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 19 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
50.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+32
49.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 32 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
53.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 12 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
53.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 11 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
53.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 0
OPP 5
-10
54.9%
Rogers, Will pass incomplete, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Cross, Charles) 10 yards to the OLEMISS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
52.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
49.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 0
OPP 15
+33
49.5%
Nolan McCord 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
46.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:4648% → 46%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
48.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
48.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
48.4%
J.J. Jernighan run for 5 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
49.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
45.7%
Archer Trafford punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:1154% → 71%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
46.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 9 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+5
44.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 5 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
45.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 11 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+34
43.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 34 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
41.6%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+15
41.4%
Matt Corral run for 15 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.0%
Snoop Conner 1 Yd Run (Cale Nation Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:5030% → 27%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
30.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamond Gordon) to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
31.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
30.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-6
29.4%
Will Rogers sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
27.4%
Archer Trafford punt for 46 yds, downed at the Miss 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5571% → 71%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
29.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 1 yd to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-5
29.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Nick Broeker) to the Miss 18Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 14
OWN 18
-9
29.1%
Corral, Matt rush for 42 yards to the MISSSTATE40, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Ealy, Jerrion) 9 yards to the OLEMISS9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 23
OWN 9
+4
29.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 4 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 19
OWN 13
+12
29.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 12 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
29.2%
Mac Brown punt for 45 yds , Austin Williams returns for no gain to the MisSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:1428% → 25%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
28.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+7
29.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
29.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 18 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
29.2%
Will Rogers run for 2 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-2
30.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the Miss 26 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 36Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-10
28.8%
Rogers, Will pass incomplete, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding 10 yards to the OLEMISS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 20
OPP 46
+8
27.5%
Will Rogers run for 8 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+5
26.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 5 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 7
OPP 33
-6
24.5%
Will Rogers sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
14 plays · 61 yds · 5:4177% → 96%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
23.2%
Snoop Conner run for 10 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
22.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
22.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 4 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+11
22.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
20.1%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+2
19.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
-1
19.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+11
21.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 11 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
17.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 6 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+2
17.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 2 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
17.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
16.5%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the MisSt 7Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
15.5%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.4%
Matt Corral 4 Yd Run (Cale Nation Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:456% → 6%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
5.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 5 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down. Mark Robinson ejected for targeting.Similar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
6.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 5
50
0
5.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 5
50
0
5.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 5
50
0
5.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:1696% → 97%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
50
+1
4.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+11
3.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 11 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
3.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+5
3.5%
Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-48
3.5%
Matt Corral pass intercepted Jett Johnson return for 48 yds to the Miss 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:346% → 19%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
5.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (KD Hill) to the Miss 17Similar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 5
OPP 17
+5
5.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (KD Hill) to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
5.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the Miss 11Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
18.5%
Jaden Walley 11 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
10 plays · 42 yds · 1:2091% → 98%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
9.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 2
OPP 34
0
9.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+4
8.9%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
8.1%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
7.7%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+15
8.0%
Corral, Matt pass incomplete to Drummond, Dontario, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Duncan, Collin) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
2.0%
Jerrion Ealy 15 Yd pass from Matt Corral (Cale Nation Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 2:463% → 10%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
2.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 12 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
2.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+6
2.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
2.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+4
3.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
2.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
2.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
2.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+9
2.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the Miss 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
9.8%
Jo'quavious Marks 11 Yd Run (Will Rogers Pass to Makai Polk for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:0195% → 97%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
5.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
4.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+1
3.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
3.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22END OF GAME
13 plays · 56 yds · 1:083% → 5%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
3.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 11 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
3.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 17 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
4.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
4.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
4.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
4.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+9
3.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+4
3.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
5.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 0
OPP 5
+3
6.6%
Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Griffin, Lideatrick, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Springer, Jake) 3 yards to the OLEMISS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-15
7.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Miss 17Similar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 0
OPP 17
+14
5.2%
Will Rogers run for 14 yds to the Miss 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:20
Jaden Walley 11 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick)
+12.6
TD · Q3 10:24
Snoop Conner 1 Yd Run (Cale Nation Kick)
-12.5
TD · Q4 11:17
Matt Corral 4 Yd Run (Cale Nation Kick)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com