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TA&M

Texas A&M 24 at LSU 27

LSU
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-5.8LSU 61.9%Seth Small 33 Yd Field GoalAWAY 10 - HOME 17 · Q3 8:09
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Q3 8:09 · Seth Small 33 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Pregame prior−6.5Home team on offense+5.5Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score differential+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:31: Moose Muhammad III 13 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Seth Small Kick) — TA&M win probability +8.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 0:32: Trey Palmer 61 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +11.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:22: Jalen Preston 15 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Seth Small Kick) — TA&M win probability +20.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:33: Jalen Preston 32 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Seth Small Kick) — TA&M win probability +32.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:20: Jaray Jenkins 28 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +69.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12TA&M made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:42LSU 4th & 1 at TA&M 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:38LSU 4th & 4 at TA&M 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:47TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:15LSU 4th & 6 at TA&M 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:08TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:35TA&M 4th & 1 at LSU 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−3.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:49TA&M 4th & 9 at LSU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:17LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:57LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:06TA&M 4th & 16 at TA&M 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−3.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:34TA&M 4th & 15 at TA&M 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:51LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−1.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:09TA&M 4th & 10 at LSU 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−10.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:17LSU 4th & 18 at LSU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−4.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:52TA&M 4th & 10 at LSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:29LSU 4th & 9 at TA&M 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−7.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:26LSU 4th & 15 at LSU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−7.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:04TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:07LSU 4th & 15 at LSU 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−7.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:12LSU 4th & 21 at LSU 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−3.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:58TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−1.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:14LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.8%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 14:12LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:31TA&M Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:32LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:22TA&M Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:33TA&M Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:20LSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−3.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1FG
15 plays · 44 yds · 6:2134% → 37%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
33.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
33.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 4 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
34.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 12 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
34.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 41Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
34.8%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Trey PalmerSimilar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+10
34.7%
Johnson, Max pass incomplete to Palmer, Trey, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Chappell, Tyreek) 10 yards to the TEXASAM49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
35.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
35.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
35.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+3
35.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
36.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
36.8%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Tyrion Davis-PriceSimilar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+4
36.6%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+50
37.0%
Cade York 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4663% → 62%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
37.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 11 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
37.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
37.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
37.4%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
38.1%
Nik Constantinou punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:3238% → 40%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
37.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 10 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
38.1%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
38.0%
Tre Bradford run for 6 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+4
38.2%
Max Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
39.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 19 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
40.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 4 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
40.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
40.5%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Josh WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
39.7%
Avery Atkins punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0760% → 58%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
40.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 5 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 17
-3
40.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 14Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+1
40.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 1 yd to the TexAM 15Similar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 7
OWN 15
+50
41.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 50 yds , Trey Palmer returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:5641% → 48%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
40.5%
Corey Kiner run for 13 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
41.8%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
42.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (DeMarvin Leal) to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+1
42.5%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+45
47.7%
Jaray Jenkins 45 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:2253% → 48%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
46.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 21 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
46.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 7 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+1
46.6%
Devon Achane run for 1 yd to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
47.5%
Devon Achane run for 1 yd to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
48.4%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 2 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
48.5%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
48.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 5 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-4
49.3%
Zach Calzada sacked by Damone Clark and Soni Fonua for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
51.7%
Nik Constantinou punt for 26 yds, downed at the LSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3251% → 52%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
51.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+16
51.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 16 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
52.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 3 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
53.2%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
52.2%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
51.5%
Avery Atkins punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Moose Muhammad III at the TexAM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 3:4647% → 56%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
52.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 9 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+9
52.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 9 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
53.1%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 23 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
51.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 14 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
51.9%
Devon Achane run for 5 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
52.5%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
44.3%
Moose Muhammad III 13 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Seth Small Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:3348% → 48%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.5%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
47.3%
Max Johnson run for 12 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
48.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 3 yds to the LSU 40 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyrion Davis-Price) to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 17
OWN 30
0
48.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+7
49.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 7 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
48.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
48.0%
Avery Atkins punt for 42 yds, downed at the TexAM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:5151% → 48%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
49.3%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 1 yd to the TexAM 22Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-8
49.7%
Zach Calzada sacked by Jaquelin Roy for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 14Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 17
OWN 14
+1
50.8%
Devon Achane run for 1 yd to the TexAM 15Similar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 16
OWN 15
0
51.7%
Nik Constantinou punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:3451% → 63%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
50.9%
Max Johnson run for 1 yd to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+61
62.8%
Trey Palmer 61 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
62.7%
Devon Achane run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:2538% → 36%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
61.8%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Jalen Wydermyer) to the TexAM 20Similar
Q3 14:58
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
62.0%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen PrestonSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
62.3%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
63.4%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:34
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+3
64.4%
Nik Constantinou punt for 58 yds , Trey Palmer returns for 3 yds to the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:4364% → 65%
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
63.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 14 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
65.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 2 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
66.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
65.9%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
64.7%
Avery Atkins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Moose Muhammad III at the TexAM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:4234% → 38%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
65.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+10
65.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 10 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
66.0%
Ainias Smith run for 1 yd to the TexAM 35Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+10
66.6%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 10 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
65.9%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the TexAM 45Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+39
67.5%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 39 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
64.8%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Devon AchaneSimilar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
64.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the LSU 16Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
67.7%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
61.9%
Seth Small 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:5168% → 67%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
68.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
67.4%
Max Johnson sacked by Micheal Clemons and DeMarvin Leal for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+9
66.6%
Avery Atkins punt for 39 yds , Moose Muhammad III returns for 9 yds to the LSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2539% → 34%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
60.6%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Isaiah SpillerSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
61.5%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
63.1%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Devon AchaneSimilar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
65.6%
Nik Constantinou punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:2369% → 75%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
69.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+5
69.6%
Tre Bradford run for 5 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+9
68.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 9 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+29
70.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 29 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
74.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 13 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
75.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the TexAM 29Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
75.2%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
74.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
75.4%
Cade York 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0625% → 48%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
75.2%
Devon Achane run for 21 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
72.9%
Devon Achane run for 7 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+18
72.0%
Devon Achane run for 18 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
70.8%
Devon Achane run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+16
74.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 16 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
73.2%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the LSU 15Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
52.3%
Jalen Preston 15 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Seth Small Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:5564% → 63%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
63.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 12 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
65.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the LSU 37Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
66.2%
Max Johnson sacked by Micheal Clemons for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 15
OWN 32
0
63.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
62.6%
Avery Atkins punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Moose Muhammad III at the TexAM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2141% → 36%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
59.3%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
60.3%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
62.5%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
63.7%
Nik Constantinou punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5666% → 65%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
66.0%
Max Johnson run for 9 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-7
68.2%
Max Johnson sacked by Micheal Clemons for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-7
65.7%
Max Johnson sacked by Demani Richardson for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 17Similar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 15
OWN 17
+15
65.0%
Avery Atkins punt for 43 yds , Moose Muhammad III returns for 15 yds to the LSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:3444% → 78%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
56.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-2
56.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+10
58.3%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 10 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
54.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
54.5%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+32
21.8%
Jalen Preston 32 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Seth Small Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:2034% → 26%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
33.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 11 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
34.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
36.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
36.6%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
34.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-5
30.6%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 14
OWN 42
-7
28.2%
Max Johnson sacked by DeMarvin Leal and Tyree Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 21
OWN 35
-3
26.2%
Avery Atkins punt for 45 yds , Moose Muhammad III returns for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 32 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (9 Yards) to the TexAM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1479% → 86%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
21.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the TexAM 9Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+8
20.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 8 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 2
OWN 17
-2
17.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 15Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 4
OWN 15
-2
14.4%
Nik Constantinou punt for 53 yds , Trey Palmer returns for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 13 LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 1:3724% → 95%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
23.9%
Max Johnson run for 5 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-6
23.6%
Max Johnson sacked by Micheal Clemons for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 14Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+5
19.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 5 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+11
17.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 11 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+31
19.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 31 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
22.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 11 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
30.2%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
24.9%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Josh WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+28
94.8%
Jaray Jenkins 28 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:1921% → 15%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.6%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.7%
Zach Calzada sacked by Damone Clark for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 20Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-6
85.0%
Zach Calzada sacked by Damone Clark for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:20
Jaray Jenkins 28 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Cade York Kick)
+69.8
TD · Q4 7:33
Jalen Preston 32 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Seth Small Kick)
-32.7
TD · Q4 14:22
Jalen Preston 15 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Seth Small Kick)
-20.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com