Try the model
ALA

Alabama 24 at Auburn 22

AUB
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTOT4OTOT3TDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:12 · James Burnip punt for 35 yds , Ja'Varrius Johnson returns for 19 yds to the Alab 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingScore differential
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTOT4OTOT3Play 92Pregame prior−25.1Home team on offense+6.5Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Time remaining−0.5Score differential+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 0:24: Ja'Corey Brooks 28 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +44.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · OT 0:00: Slade Bolden 6 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +18.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Landen King 5 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Ben Patton Kick) — AUB win probability +35.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · OT4 0:00: Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for Two-Point Conversion — ALA win probability +71.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: — AUB win probability +71.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 9 of 11ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:00AUB 4th & 20 at AUB 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:13ALA 4th & 10 at AUB 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:17AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:35ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:58AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:53ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:18AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:28ALA 4th & 14 at ALA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:28AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:02ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:23AUB 4th & 14 at ALA 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:12ALA 4th & 20 at ALA 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−5.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:43AUB 4th & 5 at ALA 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−9.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:37AUB 4th & 23 at ALA 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:18ALA 4th & 11 at AUB 19, down 10
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.6 ptsWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−11.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:17AUB 4th & 11 at AUB 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:54ALA 4th & 2 at AUB 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−3.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−3.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:44ALA 4th & 12 at AUB 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−7.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:47AUB 4th & 14 at ALA 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    86.8%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:00ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.0%−5.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:35AUB 4th & 5 at ALA 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.5
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:38ALA 4th & 7 at AUB 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−3.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−4.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 6:50AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 0:24ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−2.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:5010% → 11%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
9.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 14Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
10.1%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Aub 14Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 9
OWN 14
-11
10.3%
TJ Finley sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the Aub 3Similar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 20
OWN 3
0
10.5%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Aub 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4590% → 89%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
10.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
10.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Aub 48Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
10.8%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
11.0%
James Burnip punt for 46 yds, downed at the Aub 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 44 yds · 5:4811% → 14%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
11.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 3Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+7
11.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 7 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+16
11.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 11 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
11.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 5 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-2
12.1%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+7
12.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 7 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
12.7%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ja'Varrius Johnson, broken up by DeMarcco HellamsSimilar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
12.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+8
13.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 8 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
13.7%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
13.8%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kobe Hudson, broken up by DeMarcco HellamsSimilar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
13.7%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Jackson McFaddenSimilar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
13.5%
Oscar Chapman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:3086% → 85%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-8
13.7%
Bryce Young sacked by T.D. Moultry for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 7Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 18
OWN 7
0
14.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 18
OWN 7
+34
14.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 34 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
13.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Slade BoldenSimilar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
14.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 1
50
-1
14.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 49Similar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
14.8%
James Burnip punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:3215% → 16%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-4
15.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 8Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 14
OWN 8
+22
15.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 22 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
15.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
16.4%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+4
16.1%
TJ Finley run for 4 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
16.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0284% → 83%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
16.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
16.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 6 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
16.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
16.6%
James Burnip punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:3217% → 18%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
17.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-6
17.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 4 yds to the Aub 30 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+11
17.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 11 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-6
18.2%
TJ Finley sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
18.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:4682% → 80%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
18.0%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+11
18.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 11 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
17.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-2
18.3%
Bryce Young sacked by Colby Wooden for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 12
OWN 38
-2
19.2%
Bryce Young sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 36Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
20.3%
James Burnip punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:5421% → 21%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
20.5%
Finley, TJ pass incomplete to Jackson, Shedrick, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference 14 yards to the AUBURN40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
21.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
22.1%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
21.1%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
20.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2480% → 79%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
19.7%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
19.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
20.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+1
21.1%
James Burnip punt for 35 yds for a 1ST down , Ja'Varrius Johnson returns for 1 yd to the Alab 21 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Targeting (Jameson Williams) to the Alab 39 for a 1ST down. Williams ejected.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:5423% → 31%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
23.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+2
22.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 13
OPP 42
-2
23.0%
TJ Finley sacked by Dallas Turner and Phidarian Mathis for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 15
OPP 44
+29
22.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 29 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
31.2%
Kobe Hudson 15 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Ben Patton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
9 plays · -14 yds · 3:2370% → 64%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
29.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 20Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
30.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 9 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
29.8%
Bryce Young run for 7 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
30.0%
Bryce Young sacked by Smoke Monday for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 18
OWN 28
-10
32.5%
Young, Bryce rush for 16 yards to the ALABAMA44, PENALTY ALABAMA illegal block 10 yards to the ALABAMA18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 28
OWN 18
+1
33.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 1 yd to the Alab 19Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 27
OWN 19
-8
34.9%
Bryce Young sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 11Similar
Q2 3:27
4TH & 35
OWN 11
0
36.2%
James Burnip punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3736% → 35%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
36.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
37.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-10
36.9%
TJ Finley sacked by Phidarian Mathis for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 49Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
35.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:5662% → 61%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
37.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 6
OWN 13
-4
38.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 9Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+12
40.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 12 yds to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
38.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie III, broken up by Roger McCrearySimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
38.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+5
39.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:4361% → 56%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-6
39.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 9Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 16
OWN 9
0
39.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 9Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 16
OWN 9
-4
42.8%
Bryce Young sacked by Marcus Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 5Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 20
OWN 5
+19
43.9%
James Burnip punt for 35 yds , Ja'Varrius Johnson returns for 19 yds to the Alab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1746% → 51%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
45.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
46.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for no gain to the Alab 16Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
46.9%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Landen King, broken up by DeMarcco HellamsSimilar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
50.6%
Ben Patton 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17INT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1250% → 46%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-8
50.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Alab 37 ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Alab 22Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
52.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Slade BoldenSimilar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
54.0%
Bryce Young pass intercepted Bydarrius Knighten return for no gain to the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:4856% → 56%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
55.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+15
57.0%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Alab 40 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
57.5%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+7
58.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 7 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-13
59.1%
TJ Finley sacked by Kool-Aid McKinstry for a loss of 13 yards to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 18
OPP 33
-5
55.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 38Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 23
OPP 38
0
56.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19DOWNS
14 plays · 61 yds · 5:1242% → 30%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
58.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+13
58.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 13 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
57.9%
Robinson Jr., Brian rush for 2 yards to the ALABAMA40, PENALTY ALABAMA holding 10 yards to the ALABAMA28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+11
60.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Trey Sanders for 11 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+1
59.6%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+14
62.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 14 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
59.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
60.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+26
61.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 26 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
59.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 19Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
64.7%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 11
OPP 19
0
66.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Traeshon Holden, broken up by Roger McCrearySimilar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 11
OPP 19
0
69.6%
Paul Tyson pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:5870% → 73%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
70.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 17Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 12
OWN 17
-5
71.6%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 12Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 17
OWN 12
-2
72.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 8 yds to the Aub 20 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 10Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 19
OWN 10
-5
73.6%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 5Similar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 24
OWN 5
+5
74.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 5 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 10
+8
74.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 11
OWN 18
+6
73.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 52 yds , Slade Bolden returns for 6 yds to the Alab 24 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Alab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:1623% → 22%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
77.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 17 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
75.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
76.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 10 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
75.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+1
75.2%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
76.0%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Brian Robinson Jr.Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 2
OPP 39
-5
77.9%
Bryce Young run for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
82.0%
TJ Finley pass intercepted Josh Jobe return for no gain to the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:5722% → 24%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+37
77.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 37 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
74.9%
Trey Sanders run for 7 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+5
76.0%
Trey Sanders run for 5 yds to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
79.0%
Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
80.8%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahleel BillingsleySimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
82.4%
Bryce Young sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 12Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
76.4%
Will Reichard 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:3883% → 89%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
83.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 22 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
86.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 48Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
87.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 7
50
+15
87.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
90.2%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-4
90.9%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 14
OPP 39
0
89.9%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ja'Varrius JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
89.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 37 yds, downed at the Alab 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:4013% → 12%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
87.2%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Alab 3Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+7
87.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 7 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+27
88.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 27 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie III, broken up by Roger McCrearySimilar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
86.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 8 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
85.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Trey Sanders for 1 yd to the Alab 46Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
87.6%
Trey Sanders run for no gain to the Alab 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2195% → 95%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
95.1%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+10
95.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 10 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 1
OPP 37
-4
95.6%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
94.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 38 yds, downed at the Alab 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 27TD
13 plays · 97 yds · 1:088% → 58%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
92.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie III, broken up by T.D. MoultrySimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
92.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Slade BoldenSimilar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+22
92.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 22 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.9%
Bryce Young run for 9 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+21
90.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 21 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
89.6%
Bryce Young run for 3 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
89.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
90.4%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+14
91.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 14 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
84.6%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
85.9%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+28
41.8%
Ja'Corey Brooks 28 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 28END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
58.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 29TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 77%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.1%
Trey Sanders run for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
41.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 13 yds to the Aub 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
41.1%
Trey Sanders run for 5 yds to the Aub 7Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+1
41.1%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Aub 6Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
22.9%
Slade Bolden 6 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 30TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 63%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
28.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 3 yds to the Alab 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
28.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 5 yds to the Alab 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+13
25.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 13 yds to the Alab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
28.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Alab 3Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
28.0%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 5Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
63.3%
Landen King 5 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Ben Patton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 31FG
4 plays · -7 yds · 15:0066% → 70%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-3
65.4%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 28Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 28
-4
59.8%
TJ Finley sacked by Daniel Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 32Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 17
OPP 32
+49
70.1%
Ben Patton 49 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 32FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0029% → 23%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
71.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
73.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 5 yds to the Aub 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
76.7%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 33TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
OT4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
12.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for Two-Point ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 36TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
OT3 0:00
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
71.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for Two-Point ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
+71.6
TD · OT4 0:00
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for Two-Point Conversion
-71.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-71.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com