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MIZ

Missouri 17 at Arkansas 34

ARK
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2021 · War Memorial Stadium (AR)
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:27 · Connor Bazelak pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior+25.6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:53: Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +4.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:13: Trelon Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +9.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:48: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 52 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +7.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 11:44: Cam Little 23 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +2.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:25: Tyler Badie run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tauskie Dove pass to Keke Chism for Two-Point Conversion) — MIZ win probability +2.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MIZ made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:23MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:01ARK 4th & 17 at MIZ 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:32MIZ 4th & 13 at ARK 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    18.3%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:57ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 29, up 3
    Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:27MIZ 4th & 5 at ARK 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    19.8%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:27MIZ 4th & 11 at ARK 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:44ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:43MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:02MIZ 4th & 11 at ARK 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:28ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 34, up 4
    Close callPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:21MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:07ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:24MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 20, down 4
    Close callPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:04MIZ 4th & 15 at MIZ 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:48MIZ 4th & 2 at ARK 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−1.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:03MIZ 4th & 8 at ARK 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−3.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:44ARK 4th & 3 at MIZ 5, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%−0.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−3.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:15MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 39, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:47ARK 4th & 19 at ARK 11, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 5:53ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:13ARK Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:48ARK Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:52ARK Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:25MIZ Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:3719% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
81.4%
BAZELAK, Connor pass up the middle incomplete intended for LOVETT, Dominic thrown to the ARK30. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on BLAIR, Simeon enforced 15 yards to the MIZ40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
81.4%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
81.4%
Tyler Badie run for 3 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
81.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+7
81.0%
Grant McKinniss punt for 44 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 7 yds to the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:2281% → 80%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
81.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+11
81.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 11 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
81.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 11 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+49
81.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 49 yds to the Misso 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
81.2%
Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the Misso 10Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-5
81.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 15Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 14
OPP 15
0
81.1%
Dominique Johnson run for no gain to the Misso 15Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 14
OPP 15
0
81.1%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Isaiah McGuire and Blaze Alldredge for 0 yards to the Misso 18Similar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 17
OPP 18
+36
80.3%
Cam Little 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:2420% → 20%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
80.4%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Misso 21Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+10
80.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 10 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
80.3%
Tyler Badie run for 14 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
80.2%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Misso 45Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
80.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 13 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
80.1%
Keke Chism run for 5 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
80.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, Holding Block below the waist on MAIETTI, Michael enforced ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+2
80.2%
Connor Bazelak run for 2 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 13
OPP 45
0
80.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:32
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
79.7%
Sean Koetting punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3579% → 79%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
79.3%
Treylon Burks run for 2 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
79.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 7 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
79.2%
Dominique Johnson run for no gain to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+3
78.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 44 yds , D'ionte Smith returns for 3 yds to the Misso 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:3021% → 22%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
79.1%
Tyler Badie run for 12 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Zach Williams) to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
78.4%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+1
78.3%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
78.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:27
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
78.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
78.7%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Ark 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7FG
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:5322% → 24%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
77.7%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+2
77.2%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+5
77.6%
Connor Bazelak run for 5 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
76.8%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-3
76.8%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
77.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for no gain to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+46
76.0%
Harrison Mevis 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4377% → 76%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
77.1%
Treylon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
77.0%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Martez Manuel for 0 yards to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+14
76.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 14 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+10
75.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 52 yds , D'ionte Smith returns for 10 yds to the Misso 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:0125% → 26%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
75.3%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+4
74.8%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
74.3%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
74.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D'ionte Smith for 2 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+1
74.4%
Connor Bazelak run for 1 yd to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
74.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
74.4%
Sean Koetting punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:5076% → 83%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
75.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
76.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
77.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+7
76.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
50
+43
77.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 43 yds to the Misso 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
78.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
78.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 6 yds to the Misso 1Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:5119% → 21%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
81.1%
Tyler Badie run for 15 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
80.3%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
79.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+26
80.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 26 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-12
78.7%
Tyler Badie run for 3 yds to the Ark 27 MISSOURI Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Tyler Badie) to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 22
OPP 42
+11
81.5%
Tyler Badie run for 11 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
81.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:02
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+49
79.4%
Harrison Mevis 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3478% → 76%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
77.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
77.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 6 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
76.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by D'ionte Smith at the Misso 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:0721% → 20%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
78.9%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+17
78.6%
Tyler Badie run for 17 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
77.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
77.9%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-10
78.5%
BADIE, Tyler rush to the left for a gain of 20 yards to the ARK35 (HENRY, Hayden), out of bounds. PENALTY MIZ Holding on WOOD, Connor enforced 10 yards from the MIZ45 to the MIZ35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+6
79.7%
Michael Cox run for 6 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
79.7%
Sean Koetting punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5376% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.8%
Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
76.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
75.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:07
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+4
73.9%
Reid Bauer punt for 61 yds , D'ionte Smith returns for 4 yds to the Misso 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4325% → 24%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-4
75.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D'ionte Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 10Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 14
OWN 10
+5
75.5%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+5
76.4%
BAZELAK, Connor sacked for a loss of 6 yards at the MIZ9 (WILLIAMS, Tre). PENALTY ARK Offsides on CLARK, Hudson enforced 5 yards from the MIZ15 to the MIZ20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
76.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
76.4%
Sean Koetting punt for 41 yds , Harper Cole returns for no gain to the Ark 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 1:1176% → 87%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+55
76.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 55 yds to the Misso 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
77.9%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Misso 4Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.0%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0915% → 14%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 20Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+27
86.4%
Sean Koetting punt for 59 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 27 yds to the Ark 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
2 plays · 52 yds · 0:1687% → 95%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.2%
De'Vion Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+52
94.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 52 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 7:457% → 8%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.9%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
92.5%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+14
92.5%
Tyler Badie run for 14 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
92.4%
Michael Cox run for 1 yd to the Misso 49Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+5
92.3%
Michael Cox run for 5 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+8
92.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Messiah Swinson for 8 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
92.1%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
92.1%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+1
91.9%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+4
92.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 4 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
91.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
91.7%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-10
92.2%
BAZELAK, Connor pass to the right incomplete intended for DOVE, Tauskie thrown to the ARK10. PENALTY MIZ Holding on MAIETTI, Michael enforced 10 yards from the ARK25 to the ARK35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 19
OPP 35
+11
92.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 11 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
92.1%
Harrison Mevis 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 5:1994% → 97%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
94.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trelon Smith for 1 yd to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+39
94.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 39 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
95.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 11 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
95.3%
Trelon Smith run for 7 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+6
95.1%
Trelon Smith run for 16 yds ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trey Knox) to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+9
95.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 9 yds to the Misso 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
95.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Misso 9Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+1
95.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Misso 8Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+3
95.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 3 yds to the Misso 5Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
97.4%
Cam Little 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Connor Bazelak pass intercepted return for no gain to the Misso 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:4598% → 100%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+32
97.6%
De'Vion Warren run for 32 yds to the Misso 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
97.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 8 yds to the Misso 7Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 2
OPP 7
0
97.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+7
99.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:371% → 0%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.5%
Tyler Badie run for 14 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Misso 39Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Sean Koetting punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.6%
AJ Green run for no gain to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.6%
AJ Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
99.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Isaiah McGuire for 0 yards to the Ark 16Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 14
OWN 16
-5
99.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Ark 11Similar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
99.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 47 yds, fair catch by D'ionte Smith at the Misso 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:220% → 3%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.7%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+13
99.7%
Tyler Badie run for 13 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
99.7%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+5
99.7%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+5
99.7%
Mookie Cooper run for 5 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
99.6%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+6
99.6%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+4
99.6%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
99.6%
Tyler Badie run for 8 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+8
99.6%
Tyler Badie run for 8 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.5%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tauskie Dove pass to Keke Chism for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 18 yds · 1:2399% → 99%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
50
+4
98.7%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+14
98.7%
Trelon Smith run for 14 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:13
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q3 9:48
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 52 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+7.4
TD · Q2 5:53
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com