2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Kyle Field
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadPV aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scorePV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:06 · Devon Achane run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:31: Isaiah Spiller run for 11 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:39: Devon Achane run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q1 4:55: Jawon Pass sacked by Antonio Johnson for a loss of 8 yards Jawon Pass fumbled, recovered by TexAM Aaron Hansford , return for 0 yards for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PV has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:22: Zach Calzada pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 33 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4PV made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 13:29PV 4th & 21 at PV 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q1 7:00PV 4th & 1 at PV 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:15PV 4th & 13 at midfield, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q2 13:01TA&M 4th & 10 at PV 10, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call98.7%88% to makePunt98.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 8:48PV 4th & 9 at PV 38, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q2 3:27PV 4th & 7 at PV 20, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 0:06TA&M 4th & 1 at PV 1, up 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%59% to convertField goal99.5%−0.294% to makePunt99.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 5:46PV 4th & 8 at TA&M 8, down 45Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.126% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%90% to makePunt-0.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 0:58TA&M 4th & 2 at PV 40, up 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goal99.7%−0.234% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:57PV 4th & 5 at TA&M 40, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%42% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.134% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:57PV 4th & 5 at TA&M 40, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%42% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.134% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:23PV 4th & 9 at PV 30, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 1:57TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 29, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 0:45PV 4th & 13 at PV 34, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 8:31TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:39TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:22TA&M Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:06TA&M Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:29TA&M Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:47TA&M Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPVDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 1:271% → 1%
TA&MDrive 2TD10 plays · 55 yds · 4:4799% → 99%
PVDrive 3DOWNS6 plays · 9 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q1 7:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Donovan White for 2 yds to the PraVw 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4TD4 plays · 34 yds · 1:0399% → 99%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
99.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 17 yds to the PraVw 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 5FUMBLE TD4 plays · -8 yds · 0:331% → 1%
Q1 4:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Jawon Pass sacked by Antonio Johnson for a loss of 8 yards Jawon Pass fumbled, recovered by TexAM Aaron Hansford , return for 0 yards for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 25 yds · 4:291% → 1%
TA&MDrive 7FG7 plays · 50 yds · 2:0099% → 99%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+29
99.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 29 yds to the PraVw 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 13 yds · 4:021% → 1%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
99.2%
(11:08) Graham,Raymond rush for 4 yards gain to the PVU41 (Leal,Demarvin) PENALTY PVU Illegal Formation 5 yards from PVU37 to PVU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-5
99.2%
PENALTY PVU False Start (Johnson,Jordan D.) 5 yards from PVU32 to PVU27. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9TD7 plays · 64 yds · 3:1199% → 100%
Q2 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+3
99.3%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 3 yds to the PraVw 49Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+12
99.3%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 12 yds to the PraVw 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+33
99.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 33 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q2 3:27
4TH & 7
OWN 20
+18
99.7%
Caleb Darbone punt for 58 yds , Moose Muhammad III returns for 18 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD7 plays · 60 yds · 3:10100% → 100%
TA&MDrive 12TD7 plays · 66 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
PVDrive 13FG14 plays · 67 yds · 6:430% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14TD13 plays · 74 yds · 6:29100% → 100%
PVDrive 15DOWNS11 plays · 35 yds · 3:390% → 0%
Q4 11:12
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+15
100.0%
(11:20) Connley,Trazon pass incomplete to Spiller,Trejon PENALTY TAM Pass Interference (Harmon,Deuce) 15 yards from PVU40 to TAM45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16INT8 plays · 44 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q4 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-5
100.0%
(04:37) PENALTY PVU False Start (Lewis,Kolbi) 5 yards from PVU30 to PVU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Trazon Connley pass complete to Bernard Goodwater for 5 yds to the PraVw 30Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Caleb Darbone punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 27 , Moose Muhammad III returns for no gain to the TexAM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q4 1:57
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+14
100.0%
Nik Constantinou punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PraVw 37 , Antonio Mullins returns for 14 yds to the PraVw 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 19PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q4 0:45
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Caleb Darbone punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20Uncategorized1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:22
Zach Calzada pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 33 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q1 5:39
Devon Achane run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
+0.2
FUMBLE · Q1 4:55
Jawon Pass sacked by Antonio Johnson for a loss of 8 yards Jawon Pass fumbled, recovered by TexAM Aaron Hansford , return for 0 yards for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
+0.2