Try the model
USA

South Alabama 14 at Tennessee 60

TENN
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Neyland Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jared Wilson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:14: Timeout TENNESSEE, clock 06:14 — USA win probability +0.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:37: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 27 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +1.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:41: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Princeton Fant for 24 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:36: Desmond Trotter pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 3 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +2.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:18: Velus Jones Jr. 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Chase McGrath Kick) — TENN win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 3USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
  1. Q1 13:13USA 4th & 13 at USA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:11USA 4th & 10 at TENN 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:14USA 4th & 6 at TENN 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00USA 4th & 1 at TENN 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:15USA 4th & 5 at TENN 5, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:36USA 4th & 4 at USA 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:41USA 4th & 6 at USA 41, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:14USA 4th & 8 at USA 27, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:00USA 4th & 11 at USA 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:26USA 4th & 11 at USA 24, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:16USA 4th & 12 at TENN 46, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:56USA 4th & 7 at TENN 20, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:02USA 4th & 3 at USA 32, down 49
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:17TENN 4th & 10 at USA 40, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:39TENN 4th & 20 at TENN 35, up 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:25TENN 4th & 5 at USA 40, up 48
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:13TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:14TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:37TENN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:41TENN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:36USA Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:18TENN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:06TENN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:29TENN Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:50TENN Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:02USA Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:394% → 5%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
95.8%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
95.8%
Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
95.8%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Terrion AverySimilar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 13
OWN 30
+7
95.5%
Jack Brooks punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 38 , Velus Jones Jr. returns for 7 yds to the Tenn 37 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD
13 plays · 62 yds · 2:0096% → 95%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
95.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 4 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+14
95.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 14 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
95.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 5 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
95.5%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
95.3%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
95.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
95.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Princeton FantSimilar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+14
95.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 14 yds to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
95.4%
Jabari Small run for 10 yds to the SAlab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
95.2%
Jabari Small run for 8 ydsSimilar
Q1 11:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.4%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 3:025% → 5%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.3%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+28
95.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 28 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
95.3%
Desmond Trotter run for 1 yd to the Tenn 46Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
95.3%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+1
95.3%
Desmond Trotter run for 1 yd to the Tenn 45Similar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
94.9%
Jack Brooks punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 1:5795% → 96%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
95.4%
Hendon Hooker run for no gain to the Tenn 12Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
95.4%
Hendon Hooker run for no gain to the Tenn 12Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+14
95.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for 14 yds to the Tenn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
95.4%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+28
95.4%
Jabari Small run for 28 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
95.5%
Hooker,Hendon pass incomplete to Keyton,Ramel PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Rockette,Devin) 15 yards from USA43 to USA28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
95.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for 5 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+6
95.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for 6 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
95.6%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
96.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 17 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5DOWNS
15 plays · 62 yds · 7:595% → 5%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
95.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 37 yds to the TENNESSEE 38 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
95.1%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Lincoln SefcikSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
95.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 3 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+7
95.2%
Desmond Trotter run for 7 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+13
95.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 13 yds to the Tenn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
95.0%
Bryan Hill run for 4 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+3
95.0%
Bryan Hill run for 3 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+2
94.9%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+2
94.9%
Bryan Hill run for 2 yds to the Tenn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
94.6%
Desmond Trotter run for 3 yds to the Tenn 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
94.6%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds to the Tenn 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.7%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q2 13:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-8
94.7%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Trevon Flowers for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 2:3896% → 98%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
95.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Princeton Fant for 8 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+5
95.6%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the Tenn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
95.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 6 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-10
95.6%
Hooker,Hendon rush for 4 yards gain to the TEN36 (Brooks,Jamal) PENALTY TEN Holding (Carvin,Jerome) 10 yards from TEN32 to TEN22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+3
95.6%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+15
95.5%
Hendon Hooker run for 15 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
95.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 12 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
95.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 21 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
97.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 27 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:013% → 3%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
97.3%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+11
97.4%
Bryan Hill run for 11 yds to the SAlab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
97.3%
Bryan Hill run for 1 yd to the SAlab 13Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+3
97.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+8
97.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 8 yds to the SAlab 18 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Shift (Keith Gallmon Jr.) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+33
97.2%
Jack Brooks punt for 51 yds , Velus Jones Jr. returns for 33 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:5598% → 99%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
98.0%
Hooker,Hendon pass complete to Tillman,Cedric for 11 yards to the USA25 (Flenord,Davyn) PENALTY TEN Holding (Mays,Cooper) 10 yards from USA36 to USA46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+16
98.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 16 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+6
98.0%
Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
98.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Princeton Fant for 24 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:051% → 3%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.9%
Bryan Hill run for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
98.8%
Desmond Trotter run for 8 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.9%
Bryan Hill run for no gain to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
98.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 2 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+2
98.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Bryan Hill for 2 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+26
98.9%
Keith Gallmon Jr. run for 26 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+27
98.8%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 27 yds to the Tenn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
98.7%
Bryan Hill run for 2 yds to the Tenn 4Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
98.8%
PENALTY USA False Start (Tolbert,Jalen) 5 yards from TEN04 to TEN09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
99.1%
Desmond Trotter run for 6 yds to the Tenn 3Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.6%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 3 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:041% → 1%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
99.0%
Bryan Hill run for 1 yd to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
99.0%
Bryan Hill run for 1 yd to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
98.9%
Jack Brooks punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
99.2%
Hendon Hooker sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.1%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
99.1%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-1
99.1%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Matthew Butler for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 14:00
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
99.4%
Jack Brooks punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trevon Flowers at the Tenn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 1:5499% → 100%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
99.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for 8 yds to the Tenn 24Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+3
99.4%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Tenn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.4%
Hendon Hooker run for 5 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+17
99.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 17 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+43
99.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 43 yds to the SAlab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
99.4%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the SAlab 3Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.6%
Jabari Small 3 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
Kareem Walker run for 1 yd to the SAlab 24Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
99.6%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
99.6%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kareem Walker for no gain to the SAlab 24Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+7
99.7%
Jack Brooks punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 36 , Velus Jones Jr. returns for 7 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.6%
Jaylen Wright run for 4 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+15
99.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 15 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
99.7%
PENALTY TEN False Start 5 yards from USA45 to USA50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 15
50
-2
99.7%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Terry Perry for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 17
OWN 48
+5
99.6%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+41
99.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 41 yds to the SAlab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.7%
Jaylen Wright run for no gain to the SAlab 6Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.7%
Jaylen Wright run for no gain to the SAlab 6Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Hendon Hooker 6 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16DOWNS
17 plays · 55 yds · 7:330% → 0%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 7 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
99.7%
Kareem Walker run for 11 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
99.8%
Kareem Walker run for 13 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
99.8%
PENALTY USA False Start (Simpson,Trey) 5 yards from TEN44 to TEN49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+3
99.8%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kareem Walker for 3 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 12
OPP 46
-5
99.8%
PENALTY USA False Start (Baker,Ja'Chai) 5 yards from TEN46 to USA49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 17
OWN 49
+5
99.8%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kareem Walker for 5 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 12
OPP 46
+13
99.8%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 13 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.7%
Kareem Walker run for 5 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+5
99.7%
PENALTY TEN Offside (Tremblay,Caleb) 5 yards from TEN28 to TEN23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
99.7%
Kareem Walker run for 4 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+1
99.7%
Kareem Walker run for 1 yd to the Tenn 18Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 18
-2
99.9%
Desmond Trotter sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 7
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 11 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 9 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+8
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Princeton Fant for 8 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+45
99.9%
Len'Neth Whitehead run for 45 yds to the SAlab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.9%
Joe Milton III run for 2 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Len'Neth Whitehead run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Kareem Walker run for 4 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+11
99.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Brandon Crum for 11 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to AJ PhillipsSimilar
Q4 11:02
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+68
99.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 68 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 2:38100% → 100%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
99.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 8 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
99.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the Tenn 47Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
99.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 11 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Len'Neth Whitehead run for no gain to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jimmy HolidaySimilar
Q4 8:17
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Paxton Brooks punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20SF
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
99.9%
AJ Phillips run for 1 yd to the SAlab 8Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+1
99.9%
AJ Phillips run for 1 yd to the SAlab 7Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 12
OWN 7
0
100.0%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Len'Neth Whitehead run for 4 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
Len'Neth Whitehead run for 5 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
100.0%
Len'Neth Whitehead run for 1 yd to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
100.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Hunter Salmon for 4 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-5
100.0%
PENALTY TEN False Start (Lampley,Jackson) 5 yards from TEN49 to TEN44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Hunter Salmon for no gain to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 11
OWN 44
-9
99.9%
Joe Milton III sacked by Carlos Johnson Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 20
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Paxton Brooks punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22SF
3 plays · -32 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
100.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jared Wilson for 7 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 17
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 17
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
100.0%
Marcus Pierce Jr. run for 9 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+10
100.0%
Marcus Pierce Jr. run for 10 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
100.0%
Marcus Pierce Jr. run for 1 yd to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+3
100.0%
Gaston Moore pass complete to Grant Frerking for 3 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+3
100.0%
Gaston Moore pass complete to Hunter Salmon for 3 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 17
OWN 0
0
100.0%
Team SafetySimilar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+2
100.0%
Dee Beckwith run for 2 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
100.0%
Jared Wilson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:18
Velus Jones Jr. 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Chase McGrath Kick)
+2.4
TD · Q2 1:36
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 3 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)
-2.1
TD · Q2 10:37
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 27 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com