2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreAUB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:14 · Kai Kroeger punt for 53 yds, downed at the Aub 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:15: ZaQuandre White 28 Yd pass from Jason Brown (Parker White Kick) — SC win probability +7.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:24: Trai Jones 3 Yd pass from Jason Brown (Parker White Kick) — SC win probability +11.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:57: Josh Vann 7 Yd pass from Jason Brown (Parker White Kick) — SC win probability +16.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 5:20: TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 28 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST down — AUB win probability +10.5 pts (now 31%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:00: Kevin Harris run for 9 yds to the SCaro 34 — SC win probability +11.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 7AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
- Q1 12:38AUB 4th & 4 at SC 49, tiedClose callPunted · 65.6% before the snapGo for it65.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:10SC 4th & 13 at SC 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snapGo for it34.6%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.8%average punt
- Q2 14:14SC 4th & 4 at SC 42, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snapGo for it29.8%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.9%average punt
- Q2 11:21AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 22, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snapGo for it72.4%−0.938% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.3%average punt
- Q2 6:15SC 4th & 3 at AUB 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.7%52% to convertField goal25.2%−0.460% to makePunt22.8%−2.9average punt
- Q2 3:01AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt68.9%−1.3average punt
- Q3 12:57SC 4th & 1 at SC 44, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 47.5% before the snapGo for it48.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.5%−2.5average punt
- Q3 8:40AUB 4th & 4 at SC 20, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snapGo for it56.0%47% to convertField goalTheir call55.5%−0.575% to makePunt45.8%−10.2average punt
- Q3 1:04AUB 4th & 16 at SC 36, down 4Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 37.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.4%−2.016% to convertField goal38.4%42% to makePunt37.6%−0.8average punt
- Q4 14:10AUB 4th & 8 at SC 8, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snapGo for it38.2%−1.226% to convertField goalTheir call39.4%90% to makePunt27.3%−12.1average punt
- Q4 11:10SC 4th & 13 at AUB 44, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snapGo for it62.3%−3.021% to convertField goal62.1%−3.227% to makePuntTheir call65.3%average punt
- Q4 8:24AUB 4th & 7 at midfield, down 4Close callPunted · 34.7% before the snapGo for it33.1%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.6%−0.5average punt
- Q4 5:29SC 4th & 1 at SC 48, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 5.8 ptsPunted · 79.3% before the snapGo for it79.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.7%−5.8average punt
- Q4 3:30AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 38, down 4Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 24.3% before the snapGo for it19.6%34% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.3%−2.3average punt
- Q4 2:11SC 4th & 4 at SC 43, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 86.3% before the snapGo for it86.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.2%−1.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:45AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.4%97% to makeGo for two65.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:37AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.5%97% to makeGo for two69.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:15SC Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.0%97% to makeGo for two31.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:24SC Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.0%97% to makeGo for two41.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:57SC Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.8%97% to makeGo for two57.6%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAUBDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 2:0070% → 69%
SCDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2031% → 31%
AUBDrive 3TD6 plays · 49 yds · 2:0069% → 70%
Q1 10:20
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+8
31.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 8 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+18
31.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 18 yds to the SCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
29.6%
Demetris Robertson 10 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Ben Patton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4INT6 plays · 42 yds · 2:0531% → 32%
AUBDrive 5TD7 plays · 61 yds · 3:1270% → 74%
SCDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5927% → 27%
Q1 1:39
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+13
26.6%
Jason Brown pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 13 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
26.9%
Jason Brown sacked by Roger McCreary for a loss of 7 yards to the SCaro 29Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 17
OWN 29
-2
26.2%
Jason Brown sacked by Tony Fair for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 27Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+15
26.1%
Jason Brown pass complete to Nick Muse for 15 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4475% → 75%
SCDrive 8TD10 plays · 67 yds · 4:5025% → 31%
Q2 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
25.0%
Jason Brown pass complete to Josh Vann for 11 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9DOWNS7 plays · 25 yds · 2:5970% → 71%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
29.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 5 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-3
28.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+7
30.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 7 yds to the Aub 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10TD9 plays · 35 yds · 2:2634% → 49%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11END OF HALF4 plays · 38 yds · 0:1659% → 61%
SCDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4745% → 46%
Q3 12:57
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+1
45.5%
Kai Kroeger punt for 40 yds , Demetris Robertson returns for 1 yd to the Aub 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13FG10 plays · 63 yds · 4:1059% → 64%
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+7
41.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 7 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+21
42.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
38.2%
Finley, TJ pass incomplete to Johnson, Ja'Varrius, PENALTY AUBURN ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SOCAROLINA31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+1
39.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 1 yd to the SCaro 30Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 14
OPP 30
+10
42.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 10 yds to the SCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14TD7 plays · 67 yds · 3:1339% → 62%
Q3 7:30
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+40
38.7%
Jason Brown pass complete to ZaQuandre White for 40 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
45.1%
Josh Vann run for 8 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaylin Simpson) to the Aub 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
45.4%
Jason Brown pass complete to ZaQuandre White for 1 yd to the Aub 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15MISSED FG16 plays · 67 yds · 5:2043% → 41%
Q3 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
57.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 8 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-8
55.0%
TJ Finley sacked by Jordan Strachan and Brad Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the SCaro 36Similar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 16
OPP 36
+19
61.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 19 yds to the SCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
53.6%
TJ Finley run for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 8 TJ Finley fumbled, recovered by Aub TJ FinleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 36 yds · 2:2565% → 64%
Q4 11:30
3RD & 9
OPP 40
-4
68.8%
Jason Brown sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3637% → 37%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 33 yds · 2:3172% → 80%
Q4 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+20
73.7%
Jason Brown pass complete to Xavier Legette for 20 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 30 yds · 1:5031% → 26%
SCDrive 20FUMBLE9 plays · 18 yds · 0:4985% → 90%
Q4 2:11
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
89.9%
Kai Kroeger punt for 36 yds , Jaylin Simpson returns for no gain to the Aub 20 Jaylin Simpson fumbled, recovered by SCaro R.J. RoderickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21END OF GAME4 plays · -10 yds · 0:5294% → 94%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:57
Josh Vann 7 Yd pass from Jason Brown (Parker White Kick)
+16.3
TD · Q2 0:24
Trai Jones 3 Yd pass from Jason Brown (Parker White Kick)
+11.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:00
Kevin Harris run for 9 yds to the SCaro 34
+11