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VAN

Vanderbilt 17 at Ole Miss 31

MISS
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG—MISS 97.8%Caden Costa 28 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q1 10:18
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Q1 10:18 · Caden Costa 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior+46.7Home team on offense+1.2Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:51: Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 10 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:15: Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +1.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Joseph Bulovas 41 Yd Field Goal — VAN win probability +0.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:50: Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:47: Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Wright pass to Ben Bresnahan for Two-Point Conversion) — VAN win probability +5.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6VAN made the numbers' call on 13 of 13
  1. Q1 12:02VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:18MISS 4th & 10 at VAN 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:56VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:59MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:36VAN 4th & 1 at MISS 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:08VAN 4th & 7 at MISS 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:41VAN 4th & 3 at MISS 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:22VAN 4th & 13 at MISS 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:00MISS 4th & 5 at VAN 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:56VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:10VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 34, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:45VAN 4th & 2 at MISS 38, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:57VAN 4th & 3 at MISS 15, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:53MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 18, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:34VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 45, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:55MISS 4th & 16 at MISS 48, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:47VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 13, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:17VAN 4th & 1 at MISS 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−1.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:49MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:53MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:51MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:15MISS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:50MISS Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:47VAN Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 0:5798% → 98%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
98.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 7 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+22
98.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 22 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
98.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 21 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
98.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 7 yds to the Vandy 8Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
98.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 8 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:382% → 2%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.1%
Patrick Smith run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
98.0%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-6
97.9%
Mike Wright sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 26Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
97.9%
Harrison Smith punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 1:2798% → 98%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
97.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 12 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+30
97.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 30 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
97.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+17
97.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 17 yds to the Vandy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
97.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
97.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Casey KellySimilar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
97.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
97.8%
Caden Costa 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:152% → 2%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.7%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.7%
Patrick Smith run for 5 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
97.7%
Mike Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
97.6%
Harrison Smith punt for 37 yds, downed at the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:5298% → 97%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
97.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 7 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
97.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 4 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
97.6%
Corral, Matt pass complete to Parrish Jr., Henry for 15 yards to the VANDERBILT39, PENALTY OLEMISS holding 10 yards to the OLEMISS36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 20
OWN 36
0
97.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 20
OWN 36
+5
97.5%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+5
97.4%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Mac Brown punt for 31 yds, downed at the Vandy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 5:323% → 4%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
97.4%
Rocko Griffin run for 14 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.2%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
97.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 3 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+15
97.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 15 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
96.9%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+7
96.9%
Rocko Griffin run for 7 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
96.8%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
96.7%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
96.7%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 1
OPP 25
-6
96.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the Miss 21 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+49
96.5%
Joseph Bulovas 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 2:5997% → 97%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
96.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+10
96.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 10 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
96.6%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+19
96.6%
Matt Corral run for 19 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
96.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 11 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
96.5%
Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
96.5%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the Vandy 23Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+11
96.4%
Snoop Conner run for 11 yds to the Vandy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
96.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 2 yds to the Vandy 10Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
97.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 10 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 5:133% → 4%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.9%
Rocko Griffin run for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
96.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Isaiah Iton) to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
96.8%
Rocko Griffin run for 9 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+9
96.6%
Rocko Griffin run for 9 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
96.6%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
96.5%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+6
96.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 6 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+5
96.6%
Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
96.3%
Patrick Smith run for 21 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
96.2%
Patrick Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+5
96.2%
Patrick Smith run for 5 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 8
OPP 10
-5
96.4%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 13
OPP 15
0
96.6%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr.Similar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 13
OPP 15
+33
96.1%
Joseph Bulovas 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:0896% → 96%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
96.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 1 yd to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+17
96.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 17 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+27
96.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 27 yds to the Vandy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
96.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 3 yds to the Vandy 10Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
96.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+2
96.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 2 yds to the Vandy 8Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+4
95.6%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:044% → 4%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
95.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (-2 Yards) to the Vandy 2Similar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 12
OWN 2
0
96.1%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the Vandy 2Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+4
96.1%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the Vandy 6Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+2
96.1%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the Vandy 8Similar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 6
OWN 8
+32
96.1%
Harrison Smith punt for 42 yds , Dontario Drummond returns for 32 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:3396% → 97%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
95.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 13 yds to the Vandy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
95.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 1 yd to the Vandy 4Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12END OF HALF
16 plays · 52 yds · 1:553% → 3%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.0%
Patrick Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 24Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
97.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 5 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
97.1%
Wright, Mike pass incomplete to Sheppard, Will, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Prince, Deantre) 11 yards to the VANDERBILT40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VANDERBILT.Similar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
96.8%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
96.9%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+22
96.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 22 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
96.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 8 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
95.9%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr.Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
96.1%
Rocko Griffin run for 3 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
96.1%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-2
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+41
97.0%
Joseph Bulovas 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13DOWNS
20 plays · 60 yds · 6:584% → 5%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr.Similar
Q3 14:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.3%
Mike Wright run for 9 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
96.1%
Rocko Griffin run for 5 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.9%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr.Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
95.9%
Rocko Griffin run for 9 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+6
95.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 6 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
95.5%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
95.6%
James Ziglor III run for 2 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 8
OPP 44
-5
95.7%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Tyler Steen) to the Miss 49Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+11
95.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 11 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+5
95.6%
Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
95.1%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
95.2%
Rocko Griffin run for 11 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
94.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (BJ Anderson) to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+7
95.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 7 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+5
94.7%
Rocko Griffin run for 5 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
95.2%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 3
OPP 15
0
95.3%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5297% → 96%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
96.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for a loss of 2 yards Dontario Drummond fumbled, recovered by Miss Casey KellySimilar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+5
96.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
96.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 7
OWN 18
+50
96.1%
Mac Brown punt for 50 yds , Cam Johnson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:114% → 4%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
95.7%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
95.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Rocko Griffin for 2 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+10
95.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 10 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.4%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr.Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
95.5%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the Vandy 46Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-1
95.6%
Mike Wright sacked by Tavius Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
96.1%
Harrison Smith punt for 49 yds, downed at the Miss 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:2797% → 97%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
97.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 14 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
97.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 9 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+9
97.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 9 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
97.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 16 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
97.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-8
97.3%
Matt Corral sacked by Brayden DeVault-Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 16
OWN 48
0
97.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dannis JacksonSimilar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 16
OWN 48
+44
96.8%
Mac Brown punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the OLEMISS 15 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding (7 Yards) to the Vandy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:434% → 4%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
96.4%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the Vandy 12Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+1
96.3%
Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
96.4%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Ben BresnahanSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
96.4%
Harrison Smith punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:5097% → 99%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
97.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 26 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
97.3%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the Vandy 31 Snoop Conner fumbled, recovered by Miss Snoop ConnerSimilar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+3
97.3%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
97.4%
Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+15
97.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 15 yds to the Vandy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:431% → 7%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.3%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+20
99.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 20 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
99.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Justin Ball for 9 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
99.2%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Chris Pierce Jr.Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-5
99.2%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Jason Brooks Jr.) to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+8
99.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 8 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
99.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 18 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
99.1%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+5
99.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 5 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+16
99.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 16 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.0%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Wright pass to Ben Bresnahan for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
93.0%
Wright, Mike pass attempt failed, PENALTY OLEMISS face mask (Williams, Sam) 2 yards to the OLEMISS1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20INT
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:1697% → 98%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
97.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 45 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
97.5%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+17
97.5%
Snoop Conner run for 17 yds to the Vandy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
97.6%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Vandy 10Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
97.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Vandy 10Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
97.5%
Matt Corral pass intercepted Ethan Barr return for no gain to the Vandy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:444% → 4%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+26
95.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 26 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
95.6%
Mike Wright run for 6 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+11
96.0%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 11 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
95.9%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Gavin SchoenwaldSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
95.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 8 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
95.8%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
96.1%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:1998% → 98%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.0%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
98.4%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
98.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for no gain to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
98.4%
Mac Brown punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23INT
10 plays · 66 yds · 1:311% → 2%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.8%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Rocko GriffinSimilar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
98.9%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Ben BresnahanSimilar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+20
98.9%
Mike Wright run for 20 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 3 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
98.7%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Rocko GriffinSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+15
98.8%
Mike Wright run for 15 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
98.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Rocko Griffin for 16 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
98.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Gavin Schoenwald for 12 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
98.2%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
98.2%
Mike Wright pass intercepted Deantre Prince return for no gain to the Miss 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
98.5%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 2Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 11
OWN 2
0
98.5%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:47
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Wright pass to Ben Bresnahan for Two-Point Conversion)
-5.3
TD · Q4 12:50
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)
+1.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com