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NMSU

New Mexico State 16 at Kentucky 56

UK
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · run for no gain to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:19: Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:16: Ethan Albertson 30 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:46: Will Levis pass complete to Justin Rigg for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Ethan Albertson 32 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:09: Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 62 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NMSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 13:42NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:01NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:02UK 4th & 7 at UK 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:36NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:36NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:06NMSU 4th & 8 at UK 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:16NMSU 4th & 12 at UK 12, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:14NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 33, down 15
    Close callPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:03UK 4th & 9 at UK 26, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:53NMSU 4th & 8 at UK 38, down 19
    Close callPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:48NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 44, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:43NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 4, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:45NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:38UK 4th & 1 at NMSU 1, up 40
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:38UK 4th & 1 at NMSU 1, up 40
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:05NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 45, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:40NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 15, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:18NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:27UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:54UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:02UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:19UK Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:46UK Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:09UK Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:18UK Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:40UK Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:183% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.9%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
96.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Alex Escobar for 5 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
96.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Juwaun PriceSimilar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
96.7%
Josh Carlson punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:2497% → 96%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
96.7%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+9
96.7%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 9 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
96.4%
Trevor Brohard 25 Yd Fumble Return (Ethan Albertson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:4496% → 96%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
96.3%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for no gain to the Kent 19Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+8
96.3%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 8 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+16
96.3%
Will Levis run for 16 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+25
96.3%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 25 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
96.1%
Will Levis pass complete to Justin Rigg for 32 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:264% → 5%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.9%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Josh Paschal for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
95.9%
PENALTY NMS False Start 5 yards from NMS20 to NMS15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+6
95.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 6 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
96.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for no gain to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+5
95.5%
Josh Carlson punt for 52 yds , Josh Ali returns for 5 yds to the Kent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5995% → 95%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.4%
Will Levis pass incomplete to DeMarcus HarrisSimilar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
95.4%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
95.4%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
95.1%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-38
95.7%
Quandre Mosely 38 Yd Interception Return (Matt Ruffolo Kick)Similar
Q1 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
95.9%
PENALTY UKY Delay Of Game 5 yards from NMS03 to NMS08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:184% → 4%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.8%
Jonah Johnson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
95.7%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
95.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Andre BodisonSimilar
Q1 4:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
95.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 51 yds , Josh Ali returns for no gain to the Kent 18Similar
Q1 4:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
95.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 51 yds , Josh Ali returns for no gain to the Kent 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 4:3496% → 96%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+16
95.5%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 16 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.5%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
95.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Nick Giacolone) to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
95.7%
Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 5
50
+13
95.7%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
95.7%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+29
95.7%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 29 yds to the NMxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.1%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:544% → 6%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.6%
Jonah Johnson run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
95.5%
Juwaun Price run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Andre BodisonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
95.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 6 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+17
95.4%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 17 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.3%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
95.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 1 yd to the Kent 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+1
95.4%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
94.5%
Ethan Albertson 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4795% → 97%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
94.9%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 14 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
95.1%
Will Levis pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 12 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
95.2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+37
95.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 37 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
95.2%
PENALTY UKY False Start (Dotson,Austin) 5 yards from NMS04 to NMS09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
96.5%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 3:584% → 5%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
96.2%
Johnson,Jonah pass incomplete to Wyatt,Jared PENALTY UKY Pass Interference (Valentine,Carrington) 15 yards from NMS28 to NMS43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
96.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 19 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
95.8%
Johnson,Jonah pass incomplete to Wyatt,Jared PENALTY NMS Illegal Use Of Hands offsetting UKY Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
95.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Juwaun PriceSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
95.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Thomaz WhitfordSimilar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+12
96.0%
Jonah Johnson run for 12 yds to the Kent 26 Jonah Johnson fumbled, forced by Jacquez Jones, recovered by NMxSt Jonah Johnson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
95.7%
Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda run for 6 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+14
95.7%
Juwaun Price run for 14 yds to the Kent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
95.7%
Juwaun Price run for 5 yds to the Kent 11Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-1
95.7%
Jonah Johnson sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 12Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
96.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q2 5:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
94.7%
Ethan Albertson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · 81 yds · 0:5995% → 96%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+79
95.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 79 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
95.5%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 2 Chris Rodriguez Jr. fumbled, forced by Trevor Brohard, recovered by NMxSt Caleb MillsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:555% → 5%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+22
95.3%
Juwaun Price run for 22 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
95.1%
Jonah Johnson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
94.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+4
94.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Alex Escobar for 4 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
94.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the Kent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:2895% → 98%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
95.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 26 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
95.5%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale RobinsonSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+23
95.5%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 23 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
95.5%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
95.5%
Will Levis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+14
95.3%
Will Levis run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.3%
Will Levis pass complete to Justin Rigg for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 0:392% → 5%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
97.6%
Alex Escobar run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
97.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Alex Escobar for 15 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
97.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 26 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+32
95.3%
Ethan Albertson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5798% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
97.6%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Izayah CummingsSimilar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
97.6%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q3 14:03
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
97.4%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:104% → 4%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
96.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 5 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
96.1%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+15
96.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 15 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
96.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 2 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
96.1%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
96.5%
Josh Carlson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the Kent 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 3:4498% → 99%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
97.7%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 13Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+8
97.7%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 8 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
97.7%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 9 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+2
97.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
97.8%
Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 7 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+1
97.8%
JuTahn McClain run for 1 yd to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+62
99.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 62 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 18 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
99.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 1 yd to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
99.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Juwaun PriceSimilar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
99.5%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 9
OWN 44
+5
99.6%
Josh Carlson punt for 42 yds , Josh Ali returns for 5 yds to the Kent 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20INT
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:5699% → 100%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 2 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 12
OWN 17
0
99.4%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Rahsaan LewisSimilar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+16
99.4%
Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 16 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.4%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale RobinsonSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
99.4%
Will Levis run for 2 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+13
99.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 13 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
99.5%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 21 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.6%
Will Levis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
99.8%
Jonah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+1
99.7%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
99.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+11
99.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 40 yds , Josh Ali returns for 11 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.6%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+7
99.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 7 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.8%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 23 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:330% → 0%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Juwaun PriceSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Justice PowersSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the Kent 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 3:05100% → 100%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+16
99.8%
Beau Allen pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 16 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+44
99.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 29 yds to the KENTUCKY 35 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Caleb Mills) to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.9%
Beau Allen pass complete to Brenden Bates for 1 yd to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-7
99.9%
Beau Allen sacked by Trevor Brohard for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+23
99.8%
Beau Allen pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 23 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Beau Allen 3 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.9%
Alex Escobar run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 13
OWN 20
-4
99.9%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Trevin Wallace for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 24 Jonah Johnson fumbled, recovered by Kent William Nalty , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:17100% → 100%
Q4 10:55
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+11
99.9%
La'Vell Wright run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
La'Vell Wright run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.9%
La'Vell Wright run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
La'Vell Wright run for no gain to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
99.9%
La'Vell Wright run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Beau Allen pass incomplete to Darren EdmondSimilar
Q4 7:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Beau Allen pass incomplete to Darren EdmondSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 44 yds · 3:330% → 0%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
99.9%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
99.9%
Juwaun Price run for no gain to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+41
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Justice Powers for 41 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
Alex Escobar run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Jonah Johnson run for no gain to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Josh Carlson punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 28FUMBLE
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+52
99.9%
La'Vell Wright run for 52 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
99.9%
Tyler Markray run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+2
100.0%
Tyler Markray run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 18 Tyler Markray fumbled, forced by Lezeric Bailey, recovered by NMxSt Dalton BowlesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
100.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Sol RasconSimilar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-5
100.0%
PENALTY NMS False Start (Omerhi,Doro) 5 yards from NMS18 to NMS13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+1
100.0%
Alex Escobar run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 14
OWN 14
+1
100.0%
Alex Escobar run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 13
OWN 15
+12
100.0%
Josh Carlson punt for 47 yds , Rahsaan Lewis returns for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
50
0
100.0%
run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:46
Will Levis pass complete to Justin Rigg for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+3
FG · Q2 0:00
Ethan Albertson 32 yd FG GOOD
-2.2
TD · Q3 8:09
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 62 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com