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TA&M

Texas A&M 19 at Ole Miss 29

MISS
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGSAFETYFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:38 · Mac Brown run for 2 yds to the TexAM 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Home team on offense+9.8Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Pregame prior−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:34: Caden Costa 32 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +7.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:24: Devon Achane run for 24 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +20.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q4 10:19: Seth Small 43 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +7.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 6:32: Snoop Conner run for 13 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +18.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:50: Zach Calzada pass intercepted for a TD AJ Finley return for 52 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +5.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 8 of 11TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 12:56MISS 4th & 5 at TA&M 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:00TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:48MISS 4th & 2 at TA&M 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:57TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:42MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 27, up 10
    Close callPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:45TA&M 4th & 4 at MISS 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:29TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:34MISS 4th & 15 at TA&M 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−2.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−7.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:35TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 34, down 13
    Close callPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:05MISS 4th & 1 at TA&M 1, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    69.1%−3.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    61.2%−11.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:57MISS 4th & 11 at TA&M 40, up 15
    Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    78.3%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:03TA&M 4th & 4 at MISS 13, down 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.7%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−7.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:30MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 31, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:42MISS 4th & 19 at TA&M 43, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−4.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%−2.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:34TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 14, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−2.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:38MISS 4th & 3 at TA&M 22, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−1.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−14.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:08MISS 4th & 10 at TA&M 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    60.9%−2.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:24MISS 4th & 11 at TA&M 39, up 10
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:46TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 1 of 3TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 6:48MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:24TA&M Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:32MISS Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:50MISS Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:11TA&M Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 1:5647% → 48%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
47.2%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+8
47.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 8 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 14:42
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+4
47.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 4 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
47.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 24 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
47.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 17 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
47.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
47.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+2
47.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
48.0%
Caden Costa 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:5052% → 52%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Demond Demas for 5 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
48.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Max Wright for 7 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
48.2%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
48.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
48.4%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+5
48.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexAM 45Similar
Q1 11:00
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
48.4%
Nik Constantinou punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
14 plays · 94 yds · 4:0249% → 53%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+24
48.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 24 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
48.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 12 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
49.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 4 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
49.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+4
49.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
49.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+24
49.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 24 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
49.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexAM 19Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+10
50.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 10 yds to the TexAM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-7
50.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexAM 6 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dontario Drummond) to the TexAM 16Similar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 0
OPP 16
+3
50.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the TexAM 13Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
50.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the TexAM 12Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
50.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 10 yds to the TexAM 2Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 2 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:3548% → 46%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
52.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 6 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-5
52.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Layden Robinson) to the TexAM 20Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+8
52.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 8 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+6
52.7%
Isaiah Spiller run for 6 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
52.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the TexAM 35Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
53.2%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Caleb ChapmanSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
53.8%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
54.1%
Nik Constantinou punt for 46 yds , Dontario Drummond returns for no gain to the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5455% → 55%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
55.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 7 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
55.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Deantre PrinceSimilar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+1
54.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 1 yd to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
54.7%
Mac Brown punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:5045% → 43%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
55.0%
Devon Achane run for 6 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+12
54.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Demond Demas for 12 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
54.8%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
55.1%
Devon Achane run for 6 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
55.9%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
56.7%
Nik Constantinou punt for 33 yds, downed at the Miss 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 56 yds · 0:3757% → 59%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
57.2%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 7
OWN 16
-5
57.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the Miss 11Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+30
57.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 30 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+33
58.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 18 yds to the OLEMISS 41 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
59.1%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the TexAM 26Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
59.0%
Matt Corral sacked by Yulkeith Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 31 Matt Corral fumbled, recovered by TexAM Tyree Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0642% → 40%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
57.8%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+9
57.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 9 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
58.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
59.4%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Demond DemasSimilar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+2
59.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 2 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
60.4%
Nik Constantinou punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9FG
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4559% → 70%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+53
59.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 53 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
61.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+12
61.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 12 yds to the TexAM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
61.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+14
61.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 14 yds to the TexAM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
62.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexAM 1Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-18
63.0%
Matt Corral run for a loss of 18 yards to the TexAM 19 Matt Corral fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 0
OPP 19
+4
62.2%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the TexAM 15Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
69.8%
Caden Costa 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4632% → 31%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.9%
Devon Achane run for 6 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
67.9%
Zach Calzada run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 29Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
68.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 5 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
69.4%
Nik Constantinou punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · 77 yds · 3:2172% → 75%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
71.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 20 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
72.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+4
73.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
73.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
73.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 14 yds to the TexAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
74.0%
Snoop Conner run for 19 yds to the TexAM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
74.2%
Snoop Conner run for 9 yds to the TexAM 5Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+4
74.5%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the TexAM 1 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) to the TexAM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.8%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the TexAM 1Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
75.1%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 2Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
75.0%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the TexAM 1Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
74.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12SF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-2
75.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
13 plays · 45 yds · 2:5377% → 79%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
76.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-1
76.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+5
76.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+10
77.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
78.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 8 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+2
79.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
80.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 21 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
80.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Casey KellySimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
80.6%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-1
80.2%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
79.4%
Mac Brown punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:2722% → 23%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
78.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the TexAM 10Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+9
77.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for 9 yds to the TexAM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 4:4823% → 25%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
77.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 9 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
77.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Demond Demas for 9 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Jake Springer) to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
76.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 8 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+2
75.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
75.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 6 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+1
76.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+3
77.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+1
78.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 1 yd to the Miss 18Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
77.1%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+5
79.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
78.4%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+30
75.2%
Seth Small 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2679% → 79%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
80.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
79.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Casey KellySimilar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
78.9%
Mac Brown punt for 52 yds to the TexAM 17 , Ainias Smith muffed by Ainias Smith, recovered at 12 by TexAM Ainias SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:5423% → 43%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
77.3%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Demond Demas for 11 yds to the TexAM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
77.6%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 19 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
77.2%
Devon Achane run for 16 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
76.4%
Devon Achane run for 6 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+6
77.4%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 6 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
76.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Demond Demas for 6 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+24
56.6%
Devon Achane run for 24 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 3:3566% → 65%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
65.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 11 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
67.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
68.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
67.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
68.9%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+15
69.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
70.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 1 yd to the TexAM 33Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-8
70.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 41 Jerrion Ealy fumbled, recovered by Miss Matt CorralSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 17
OPP 41
-2
67.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 43Similar
Q3 2:42
4TH & 19
OPP 43
0
64.8%
Mac Brown punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5736% → 32%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
64.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 9 yds to the TexAM 19Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 1
OWN 19
0
63.7%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the TexAM 19Similar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
65.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the TexAM 19Similar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 1
OWN 19
-5
67.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 14Similar
Q3 0:34
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
67.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:4670% → 70%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
70.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+10
70.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 10 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
71.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+16
71.5%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tyreek Chappell) to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
73.1%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+1
73.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the TexAM 22Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
72.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+2
70.1%
Mac Brown run for 2 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:1134% → 38%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
65.6%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 18 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
63.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 27 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
59.0%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Demond DemasSimilar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
59.1%
Devon Achane run for 4 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+21
68.8%
Devon Achane run for 21 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
66.0%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the Miss 10Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
66.3%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Caleb ChapmanSimilar
Q4 10:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
69.3%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Caleb Chapman TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Jahmir Johnson) to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 0
OPP 25
+43
62.2%
Seth Small 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:0066% → 67%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
66.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
66.0%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+14
64.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 14 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
68.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 19 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
71.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
71.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 6
OPP 39
-4
70.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 7:08
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
67.2%
Mac Brown punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0837% → 37%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
63.2%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-4
63.5%
Zach Calzada pass intercepted Ashanti Cistrunk return for 4 yds to the TexAM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24TD
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:1074% → 93%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
74.0%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the TexAM 13Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
92.6%
Snoop Conner run for 13 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25INT TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3011% → 3%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
89.3%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 1 yd to the TexAM 36Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-5
90.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 31Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+4
91.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 4 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-52
97.1%
Zach Calzada pass intercepted for a TD AJ Finley return for 52 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 1:243% → 7%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
97.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 25 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
97.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 24 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.5%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
96.6%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 7 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+9
96.8%
Devon Achane run for 9 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
96.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Jahmir Johnson) to the Miss 9Similar
Q4 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
92.9%
Devon Achane run for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:1195% → 97%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
95.4%
Snoop Conner run for 11 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
95.5%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 4
OPP 32
-10
96.4%
Matt Corral run for a loss of 10 yards to the TexAM 42Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 14
OPP 42
+3
95.7%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
96.9%
Mac Brown punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:333% → 3%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.9%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Isaiah SpillerSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
96.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 8 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
97.0%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Caleb ChapmanSimilar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 2
OWN 28
-8
97.2%
Zach Calzada sacked by Tavius Robinson for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:24
Devon Achane run for 24 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)
-20.2
TD · Q4 6:32
Snoop Conner run for 13 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)
+18.6
FG · Q2 9:34
Caden Costa 32 yd FG GOOD
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com