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MSST

Mississippi State 43 at Auburn 34

AUB
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:03 · Nolan McCord 40 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Home team on offense−32.2Pregame prior+0.7Score differential−13.0Garbage-time factor−12.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:55: Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK) — AUB win probability +12.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:28: Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MSST win probability +12.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:28: Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MSST win probability +24.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:35: Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 3 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK) — MSST win probability +25.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:37: Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bo Nix intercepted ) — AUB win probability +14.7 pts (now 19%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:52MSST 4th & 1 at AUB 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:21MSST 4th & 12 at AUB 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:37MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:47AUB 4th & 1 at MSST 9, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.3%−1.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−6.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:47MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:00MSST 4th & 4 at AUB 39, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:12AUB 4th & 18 at MSST 38, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%
    38% to make
    Punt
    84.5%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:34AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:13AUB 4th & 10 at MSST 18, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−2.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−13.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:05AUB 4th & 19 at AUB 16, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−7.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:30AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 45, down 8
    Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:03MSST 4th & 8 at AUB 22, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−5.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 12:37AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:26AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:59AUB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:10AUB Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:55MSST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:25MSST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:28MSST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:28MSST Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    51.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:35MSST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.7
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:31MSST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:0664% → 65%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+48
64.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 48 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
64.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 9 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+2
64.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
64.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
65.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2FG
17 plays · 49 yds · 5:1035% → 35%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
65.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 11 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
65.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 5 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
65.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
65.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+6
65.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 6 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
65.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
65.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire Calvin MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Scott Lashley) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+15
65.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (T.D. Moultry) to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
65.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 10 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
65.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Scott Lashley) to the Aub 19Similar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 15
OPP 19
0
65.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+4
65.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 4 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+4
65.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 7
OPP 11
-5
66.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+34
65.0%
Nolan McCord 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:3765% → 69%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
64.8%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Aub 18Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+12
64.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 12 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
65.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
65.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
65.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 2 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+57
69.3%
Ja'Varrius Johnson 57 Yd Run (Anders Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:3332% → 30%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
67.9%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the MisSt 15Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
68.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+11
69.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 11 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
68.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
69.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+4
70.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 1:37
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
70.5%
Archer Trafford punt for 37 yds , Demetris Robertson returns for no gain to the Aub 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:1570% → 81%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
70.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 17 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
70.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
71.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 7 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 3
OPP 30
-5
71.6%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Nick Brahms) to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
71.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+17
71.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 17 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
72.5%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
72.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 4 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
73.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the MisSt 9Similar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+5
73.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 5 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
74.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the MisSt 4Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
80.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Luke Deal for 4 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5821% → 19%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
79.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-5
79.8%
Will Rogers sacked by Eku Leota for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
80.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
81.0%
Archer Trafford punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Demetris Robertson at the Aub 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:2782% → 90%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
82.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 23 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
83.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+6
83.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the MisSt 34 Tank Bigsby fumbled, recovered by Aub Tank Bigsby for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
83.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Ja'Varrius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
83.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+8
83.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 8 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
83.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 8 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+15
89.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 15 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0524% → 19%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
76.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 17 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
71.0%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marcus Harris) to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 5
OWN 47
+8
68.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
68.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for no gain to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
69.6%
Will Rogers run for 4 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-2
71.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 8 yds to the Aub 33 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Malik Heath) to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+4
72.0%
Will Rogers run for 4 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+12
73.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 12 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
73.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 7 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+16
68.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 16 yds to the Aub 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
80.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9MISSED FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 1:3986% → 85%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Tank BigsbySimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.0%
Shaun Shivers run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+23
86.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
50
+8
87.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 8 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+12
88.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-8
88.8%
Bo Nix sacked by Nathan Pickering for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 18
OPP 38
0
87.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 18
OPP 38
0
85.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 18
OPP 38
+55
85.0%
Anders Carlson 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0816% → 17%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
84.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 18 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
82.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
83.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3014% → 25%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+20
86.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 20 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
85.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+15
85.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 15 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
84.7%
Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Polk, Makai, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Pritchett, Nehemiah) 15 yards to the AUBURN19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
84.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 9 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+7
85.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the Aub 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 3 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)Similar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-10
74.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:4181% → 81%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.7%
Demetris Robertson run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
80.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 14 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
82.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Tyler FrommSimilar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
81.6%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
80.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 5 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
80.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 52 yds, downed at the MisSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
12 plays · 98 yds · 4:5819% → 32%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
80.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 1
OWN 11
-1
80.6%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 10Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+6
81.8%
Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Polk, Makai, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Simpson, Jaylin) 6 yards to the MISSSTATE16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
80.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+8
81.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+18
83.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 18 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
82.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-2
82.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+31
82.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 31 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
80.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 20 yds to the Aub 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:5973% → 74%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
73.3%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+5
72.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+44
72.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 44 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
77.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for no gain to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
77.6%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
76.2%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
73.7%
Anders Carlson 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Cameron YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:3226% → 56%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
74.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 13 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
72.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 17 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
70.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 17 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
68.6%
Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Heath, Malik, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Puckett, Zion) 9 yards to the AUBURN16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
68.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+5
68.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 5 yds to the Aub 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
44.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:5754% → 50%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
53.4%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 10 yards to the Aub 16 Tank Bigsby fumbled, forced by Nathaniel Watson, recovered by Aub Bo NixSimilar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
51.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
50.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:2553% → 84%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
46.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 19 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
45.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 22 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
43.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+8
41.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the Aub 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
16.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 3 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:0124% → 22%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
24.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
22.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 16 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
25.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to John Samuel ShenkerSimilar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
24.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Tyler FrommSimilar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
23.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
21.6%
Oscar Chapman pass incomplete to Luke DealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:5384% → 96%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+29
16.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 29 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-6
10.9%
Will Rogers sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 22 Will Rogers fumbled, forced by Derick Hall, recovered by MisSt Kameron Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 16
OPP 22
+11
10.9%
Rogers, Will pass sacked for loss of 5 yards to the AUBURN27 (Moultry, T.D.), PENALTY AUBURN personal foul (Moultry, T.D.) 11 yards to the AUBURN11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
9.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
3.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 6 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
3.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 1:486% → 19%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
5.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 3 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+8
5.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 8 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
4.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 18 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
4.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+31
4.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 31 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
5.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
4.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 5 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+24
4.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 24 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bo Nix intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:2691% → 92%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
9.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 20 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
8.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
7.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the Aub 22Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
7.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
7.9%
Nolan McCord 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:116% → 5%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
6.1%
TJ Finley pass incomplete to John Samuel ShenkerSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-10
4.7%
TJ Finley sacked by Randy Charlton for a loss of 10 yards to the Aub 12 TJ Finley fumbled, forced by Randy Charlton, recovered by MisSt Tyrus Wheat , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:4093% → 97%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
6.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+4
4.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
4.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 2Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
3.5%
Will Rogers run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:35
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 3 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)
-25.8
TD · Q4 13:28
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-24.2
TD · Q4 3:37
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bo Nix intercepted )
+14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com