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NMSU

New Mexico State 3 at Alabama 59

ALA
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG—ALA 100.0%Jack Martin 29 Yd Field GoalAWAY 3 - HOME 59 · Q4 5:24
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:24 · Jack Martin 29 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior+10.5Home team on offense+34.5Score differential+30.8Blowout margin+17.4Garbage-time factor+13.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 5:35: Ethan Albertson 50 Yd Field Goal — NMSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:14: Cameron Latu 12 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:15: Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:54: Brian Robinson Jr. 63 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 5:28: Jameson Williams 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 12:21NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:10ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:35NMSU 4th & 14 at ALA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:32NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:56NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:55NMSU 4th & 16 at NMSU 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:09NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 41, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:42NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 36, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:11NMSU 4th & 1 at ALA 49, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:03NMSU 4th & 7 at ALA 44, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:44ALA 4th & 21 at ALA 12, up 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:17NMSU 4th & 4 at ALA 43, down 46
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:17NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 30, down 53
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:24ALA 4th & 11 at NMSU 11, up 53
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:05NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 29, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 4:51ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:14ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:15ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:25ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:54ALA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:28ALA Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:15ALA Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:12ALA Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:381% → 1%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 3 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+19
99.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 19 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.4%
Justice Powers run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
99.4%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-5
99.4%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 12:21
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
99.4%
Josh Carlson punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:1199% → 99%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
99.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 13 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
99.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 1 yd to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+1
99.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 1 yd to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
99.2%
James Burnip punt for 37 yds, downed at the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:351% → 1%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.2%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.2%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+23
99.2%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 23 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 4
50
+7
99.1%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 7 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to O'Maury SamuelsSimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
99.0%
Price, Juwaun rush for no gain to the ALABAMA43, PENALTY ALABAMA face mask (Young, Byron) 15 yards to the ALABAMA28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEWMEXST.Similar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
99.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Pj Johnson III for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+5
99.0%
Jonah Johnson run for 5 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-7
98.9%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Henry To'oTo'o for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+50
98.9%
Ethan Albertson 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 0:4499% → 99%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
98.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
50
+50
98.9%
Jameson Williams 50 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:191% → 1%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 11 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
98.8%
Juwaun Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+3
98.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
98.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for no gain to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
98.7%
Josh Carlson punt for 50 yds , JoJo Earle returns for no gain to the Alab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 2:1899% → 99%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+19
98.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 19 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
98.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+26
98.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 26 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
98.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 17 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
98.6%
Bryce Young run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
98.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 2 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
98.8%
Cameron Latu 12 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Juwaun Price run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Justice PowersSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.7%
Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+20
98.7%
TEAM punt blocked by Christian Leary, Jaylen Moody return for 20 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4199% → 99%
Q2 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
98.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.0%
Justice Powers run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
99.0%
Jonah Johnson sacked by LaBryan Ray for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q2 11:55
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+24
99.0%
Josh Carlson punt for 39 yds , Slade Bolden returns for 24 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:3099% → 99%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+32
99.2%
Jameson Williams 32 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:161% → 1%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.6%
Jonah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
98.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 13 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
98.8%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
98.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+13
98.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 48 yds , Slade Bolden returns for 13 yds to the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:1599% → 100%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
99.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 22Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+7
99.2%
Bryce Young run for 7 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+8
99.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 8 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
99.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. 63 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
99.6%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 3 yds Terrell Warner fumbled, forced by Christian Harris, recovered by Alab Justin EboigbeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
99.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+9
99.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 9 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
99.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
99.5%
Bryce Young run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Jameson Williams 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:460% → 0%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+13
99.8%
Jonah Johnson run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Andre BodisonSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
99.8%
Jonah Johnson run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.8%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Pj Johnson III for 6 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-1
99.8%
Juwaun Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-7
99.8%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 49 yds , Slade Bolden returns for no gain to the Alab 36 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (7 Yards) to the Alab 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
99.8%
Roydell Williams run for 11 yds to the Alab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+38
99.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 38 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
99.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 14 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 3 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+10
99.8%
Young, Bryce rush for no gain to the NEWMEXST26, PENALTY NEWMEXST holding 10 yards to the NEWMEXST16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 5 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+6
99.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 6 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.8%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahleel BillingsleySimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Jahleel Billingsley 5 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
Juwaun Price run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
99.8%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Alab 23Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+12
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for 12 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for 9 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+12
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-8
99.9%
Bryce Young sacked by Donavan King for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 42 Bryce Young fumbled, forced by Donavan King, recovered by NMxSt Garrett Bishop , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 4:030% → 0%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for no gain to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
Jonah Johnson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 6 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
99.9%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Alex Escobar for 4 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 3:19100% → 100%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for 3 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 12
-2
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 10Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+13
99.9%
Paul Tyson pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 13 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 19Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 14
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Paul Tyson pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 14
OWN 19
-7
99.9%
Paul Tyson pass complete to Christian Leary for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 12Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 21
OWN 12
+2
99.9%
James Burnip punt for 39 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 2 yds to the Alab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
99.9%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Shane Lee for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 11
50
+7
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Pj Johnson III for 7 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:05100% → 100%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.9%
Paul Tyson pass complete to Robbie Ouzts for 8 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+9
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for 9 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for 8 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
99.9%
Demouy Kennedy run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+6
99.9%
Demouy Kennedy run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.9%
Paul Tyson pass complete to Javon Baker for 5 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Paul Tyson pass incomplete to Agiye HallSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+16
99.9%
Paul Tyson pass complete to Javon Baker for 16 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
99.9%
Paul Tyson pass complete to Thaiu Jones-Bell for 8 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Trey Sanders 5 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:490% → 0%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
100.0%
Juwaun Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+5
100.0%
Jonah Johnson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+8
100.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Alex Escobar for 8 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
100.0%
Alex Escobar run for no gain to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-7
100.0%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Drew Sanders for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 15 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jonah Johnson) to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 17
OWN 15
+10
100.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 10 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Josh Carlson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 4:53100% → 100%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Robbie OuztsSimilar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+15
100.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 15 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
100.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-8
100.0%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Lezeric Bailey for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+12
100.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
100.0%
Christian Leary run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+12
100.0%
Christian Leary run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
100.0%
Christian Leary run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+8
100.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Thaiu Jones-Bell for 8 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
100.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 9 yds to the NMxSt 1 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Thaiu Jones-Bell) to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q4 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
100.0%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
100.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q4 5:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
100.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q4 5:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
100.0%
Jack Martin 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Weston Eget run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
O'Maury Samuels run for no gain to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Weston Eget pass incomplete to O'Maury SamuelsSimilar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Josh Carlson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 13 yds · 3:24100% → 100%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
100.0%
Demouy Kennedy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+1
100.0%
Demouy Kennedy run for 1 yd to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+10
100.0%
Braxton Barker pass complete to Agiye Hall for 10 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Demouy Kennedy run for no gain to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
100.0%
Demouy Kennedy run for 2 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+1
100.0%
Demouy Kennedy run for 1 yd to the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:15
Brian Robinson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)
+0.3
TD · Q2 7:54
Brian Robinson Jr. 63 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)
+0.3
TD · Q2 5:28
Jameson Williams 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com