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LIB

Liberty 14 at Ole Miss 27

MISS
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+3MISS 95.9%Caden Costa 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 27 · Q3 6:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:49 · Caden Costa 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense+24.7Pregame prior+8.1Score differential+18.2Garbage-time factor+8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.1Time remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:13: Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +7.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:45: Jerrion Ealy run for 10 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST down — MISS win probability +4.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:27: Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 40 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +4.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:31: Shedro Louis run for 28 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK) — LIB win probability +7.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:08: Malik Willis run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK) — LIB win probability +10.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:47LIB 4th & 18 at MISS 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:13MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:40LIB 4th & 18 at MISS 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:22MISS 4th & 6 at LIB 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:09LIB 4th & 13 at LIB 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:28MISS 4th & 8 at LIB 16, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:00LIB 4th & 1 at midfield, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.2%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:49MISS 4th & 9 at LIB 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:17MISS 4th & 9 at LIB 24, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−5.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:37LIB 4th & 4 at MISS 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    8.2%−1.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:14MISS 4th & 12 at LIB 46, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−1.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:16LIB 4th & 23 at LIB 48, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:19MISS 4th & 27 at MISS 34, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:26MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:13MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:27MISS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:31LIB Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:08LIB Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1472% → 72%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+70
72.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 70 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 4:1328% → 27%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
72.0%
Malik Willis sacked by Tysheem Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the Liber 16Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+15
72.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Deantre Prince) to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
72.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 25 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
72.0%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
72.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jake Springer) to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
72.0%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
71.9%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-5
71.9%
Malik Willis sacked by Chance Campbell and Otis Reese for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 12
OPP 35
-1
72.3%
Malik Willis sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 13
OPP 36
-5
72.6%
LIBERTY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 18
OPP 41
0
72.7%
Aidan Alves punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jake Springer at the Miss 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:1273% → 72%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
72.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 8 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+3
72.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
72.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
72.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dannis JacksonSimilar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
72.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dannis JacksonSimilar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+2
72.4%
Mac Brown punt for 47 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for 2 yds to the Liber 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 5:0727% → 26%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
72.7%
Malik Willis run for 9 yds to the Liber 39Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+18
72.4%
Joshua Mack run for 18 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
72.3%
Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+7
72.2%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 7 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
71.8%
Malik Willis run for 7 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+10
71.8%
Joshua Mack run for 10 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
71.7%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the Miss 12Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
71.7%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-8
72.3%
Malik Willis sacked by Chance Campbell and Otis Reese for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 18
OPP 20
+38
73.7%
Brayden Beck 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
5 plays · 54 yds · 0:5773% → 74%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+50
73.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 50 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
74.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-2
74.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 26Similar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
74.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
74.2%
Caden Costa 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3626% → 25%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
74.2%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
74.2%
Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the Liber 27Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 6
OWN 27
-7
74.8%
Malik Willis sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Liber 20Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 13
OWN 20
+6
75.4%
Max Morgan punt for 44 yds , Jake Springer returns for 6 yds to the Miss 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 0:3776% → 84%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
75.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 10 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
75.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dannis JacksonSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+44
75.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 44 yds to the Liber 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5518% → 18%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.9%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Johnny HuntleySimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
82.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 13 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
81.8%
Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
82.1%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
82.4%
Malik Willis pass intercepted Jaylon Jones return for no gain to the Liber 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:2285% → 85%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
85.2%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
85.4%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Liber 44Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+6
85.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 6 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
85.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 20 yds to the Liber 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
85.9%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 19Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 11
OPP 19
-4
86.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 23Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+7
85.2%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the Liber 16Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 8
OPP 16
0
85.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for no gain to the Liber 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10INT
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:0516% → 16%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
84.1%
Joshua Mack run for 14 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
83.9%
Malik Willis run for 11 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
83.8%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
84.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 1
50
0
83.6%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 1
50
+4
84.0%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
84.1%
Joshua Mack run for 21 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
83.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Joshua Mack for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-19
84.0%
Malik Willis pass intercepted AJ Finley return for 19 yds to the Miss 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:1889% → 94%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
88.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 10 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
88.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
50
+5
89.1%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+5
89.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 5 yds to the Liber 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
94.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 40 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:087% → 8%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
92.6%
Malik Willis sacked by Chance Campbell for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 15Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 16
OWN 15
+15
92.5%
Shedro Louis run for 15 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+13
92.2%
Shedro Louis run for 13 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
92.0%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 5 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-8
92.4%
Malik Willis sacked by Tavius Robinson for a loss of 8 yards to the Liber 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:497% → 13%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.1%
Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
92.8%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 33Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
92.6%
Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the Liber 34Similar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
93.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
93.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 12 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
94.1%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the Miss 49Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
94.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 15 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
94.6%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+28
87.3%
Shedro Louis run for 28 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:2191% → 96%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 8 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
91.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
91.7%
LIBERTY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Cedric Stone) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
50
+8
92.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+5
92.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 5 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
92.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 15 yds to the Liber 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-15
93.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Dannis Jackson) to the Liber 37Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 25
OPP 37
+3
93.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 22
OPP 34
+6
93.0%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 16
OPP 28
+7
92.9%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Liber 21Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+38
95.9%
Caden Costa 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 5:224% → 13%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
95.8%
Malik Willis run for 12 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.8%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the Liber 39Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
96.0%
Malik Willis run for 7 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+7
96.2%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 7 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
96.2%
LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Noah Frith) to the Liber 38Similar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 25
OWN 38
-5
96.4%
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (Brendan Schlittler) to the Liber 33Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 30
OWN 33
+14
96.5%
Shedro Louis run for 14 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 16
OWN 47
+9
96.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 9 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+30
96.9%
T.J. Green run for 16 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Face Mask (14 yards) (Sam Williams) to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
96.4%
Malik Willis run for 5 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+8
96.7%
Malik Willis run for 8 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
96.9%
Joshua Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 3Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.6%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 1:3391% → 93%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.9%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
90.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 15 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+32
93.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 32 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
93.2%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Liber 22Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-2
93.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 24Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
93.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to John Rhys PlumleeSimilar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
92.5%
Caden Costa 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:2010% → 7%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
90.4%
Malik Willis run for 12 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
89.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 7 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+9
90.1%
Shedro Louis run for 9 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
90.0%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
90.0%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
90.3%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
93.5%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 0 yds · 2:0595% → 95%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
94.9%
Matt Corral sacked by Storey Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 18
OWN 34
-5
94.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 23
OWN 29
+22
94.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 22 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-5
95.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Dannis Jackson) to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+10
95.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 10 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
95.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
95.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
95.4%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 7
OPP 41
-5
94.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Liber 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 9:14
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
94.9%
Mac Brown punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:445% → 4%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
94.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 12 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
94.8%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+17
94.8%
Malik Willis run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
50
-10
94.7%
LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Damian Bounds) to the Liber 40Similar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 20
OWN 40
0
95.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Shedro LouisSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+21
95.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Brody Brumm for 21 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-8
95.0%
Malik Willis sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 18
OPP 47
-2
95.9%
T.J. Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 20
OPP 49
-3
96.2%
Malik Willis sacked by Sam Williams and TEAM for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 48 Malik Willis fumbled, forced by Sam Williams, recovered by LiberSimilar
Q4 5:16
4TH & 23
OWN 48
0
96.4%
Max Morgan punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:5197% → 98%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
96.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 18 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
97.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 13 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
97.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+3
97.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 17
OWN 44
-4
97.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 21
OWN 40
-6
97.8%
Matt Corral sacked by Storey Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 27
OWN 34
0
97.7%
Mac Brown punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22INT
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:051% → 2%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
98.7%
Malik Willis run for 12 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
98.6%
LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Thomas Sargeant) to the Liber 24Similar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+16
98.8%
Shedro Louis run for 16 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+7
98.6%
Malik Willis run for 7 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
98.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Brody Brumm for 6 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+20
98.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 20 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
98.1%
Malik Willis run for 6 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
98.1%
Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+5
98.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 5 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.2%
Malik Willis pass intercepted, touchback. AJ Finley return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:3098% → 98%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
98.3%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
98.3%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:08
Malik Willis run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 13:13
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q3 10:31
Shedro Louis run for 28 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)
-7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com