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MSST

Mississippi State 28 at Arkansas 31

ARK
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:10 · Brandon Ruiz 46 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense−0.4Pregame prior+2.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score differential+0.1Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:07: W. Rogers pass,to J. Walley for 3 yds for a TD, (B. Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +13.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:10: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 14 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +17.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:41: W. Rogers pass,to R. Thomas for 37 yds for a TD, (N. McCord KICK) — MSST win probability +21.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 2:22: Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 15 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK) — MSST win probability +42.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:21: D. Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (D. Johnson Run For Two-point Conversion) — ARK win probability +55.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 6MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:17ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:23MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:52ARK 4th & 8 at MSST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    61.2%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:54MSST 4th & 19 at MSST 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:48MSST 4th & 1 at ARK 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    33.7%−1.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:01ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:09MSST 4th & 5 at ARK 5, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.1%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:21ARK 4th & 6 at MSST 30, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.8%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:51MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:38ARK 4th & 2 at MSST 33, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%−2.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−4.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:10MSST 4th & 7 at ARK 28, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−8.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:27ARK 4th & 7 at MSST 24, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−18.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:56ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:07MSST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:15MSST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:10ARK Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:22MSST Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:4359% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.8%
Treylon Burks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
58.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 7 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
58.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+14
58.9%
run for 14 yds to the Ark 44 Dominique Johnson fumbled, forced by Shawn Preston Jr., recovered by MisSt Martin EmersonSimilar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-5
59.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+6
59.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 6 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
59.0%
Dominique Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
58.9%
Reid Bauer punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5441% → 41%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
58.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
59.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+44
59.1%
Archer Trafford punt for 44 yds ARKANSAS Penalty, Running Into the kicker on STEWART, Jashaud ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:3159% → 60%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
59.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 6 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
59.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 5 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
59.3%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Nathaniel Watson for 0 yards to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+4
59.1%
Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+25
59.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 25 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
59.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 15
OPP 35
0
59.3%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+4
59.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+3
59.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
59.9%
Cam Little 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:5840% → 39%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
59.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
60.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-5
60.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Martin Emerson) to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 14
OWN 21
-5
60.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Aaron Brule) to the MisSt 16Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+8
60.7%
Archer Trafford punt for 44 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 8 yds to the Ark 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:5860% → 65%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+26
60.4%
Treylon Burks run for 26 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
60.8%
De'Vion Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+14
60.7%
Dominique Johnson run for 14 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
60.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+5
60.7%
Dominique Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
60.8%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the MisSt 12Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+9
60.4%
JEFFERSON, K.J. pass to the right incomplete intended for BURKS, Treylon thrown to the MSU0. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on EMERSON, Martin enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the MSU3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.4%
run for 3 ydsSimilar
Q1 3:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.0%
D. Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6INT
11 plays · 54 yds · 5:0037% → 35%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
63.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+16
62.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 16 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
62.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
50
+4
61.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
61.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
61.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
62.4%
Will Rogers run for 2 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
63.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 11 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
63.1%
JOHNSON, Dillon rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the ARK25 (BISHOP, LaDarrius;POOL, Bumper). PENALTY MSU Holding on CROSS, Charles enforced 10 yards from the ARK28 to the ARK38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+1
64.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 19
OPP 37
0
65.1%
Will Rogers pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the Ark 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4766% → 65%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
65.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
65.7%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Tyrus Wheat and Aaron Brule for 0 yards to the Ark 11Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 12
OWN 11
+4
65.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Hudson Henry for 4 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 12:01
4TH & 8
OWN 15
-2
65.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 45 yds , Jaden Walley returns for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:5234% → 31%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
65.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
65.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offsides (Tre Williams) to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+7
65.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
65.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 4 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+11
65.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 11 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
64.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 12 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
64.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+3
64.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
64.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
64.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the Ark 6Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
65.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the Ark 5Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
68.6%
Brandon Ruiz 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:4870% → 76%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
69.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 11 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
69.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 24 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
70.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+2
70.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+6
70.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 6 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
71.1%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+2
71.1%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-4
71.3%
Treylon Burks run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
76.4%
Cam Little 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 3:0825% → 37%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
75.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 4 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+2
74.6%
Will Rogers run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+11
74.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 11 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
74.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+28
74.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 28 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
74.9%
Will Rogers sacked by Tre Williams for 0 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 12
OPP 29
0
76.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+13
77.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 13 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
74.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-5
74.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 21Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+3
76.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 12
OPP 18
0
77.2%
ROGERS, Will pass up the middle intercepted by BLAIR, Simeon at the ARK1 intended for WILLIAMS, Austin. Blair return for -1 yard to the ARK0, touchback.. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on SLUSHER, Myles enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards to the ARK9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.4%
W. Rogers pass,to J. Walley for 3 yds for a TD, (B. Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 6:3634% → 50%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
66.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
66.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
64.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 14:51
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+4
67.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
64.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+10
64.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 10 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
63.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+15
63.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 15 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
62.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+1
62.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the Ark 19Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+6
63.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the Ark 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
62.3%
Will Rogers run for 1 yd to the Ark 12 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (John Ridgeway) to the Ark 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
49.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 3:3759% → 64%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.6%
Dominique Johnson run for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
60.3%
Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
59.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+2
62.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
61.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
60.5%
JEFFERSON, K.J. pass to the left complete for -6 yards to BURKS, Treylon caught at the ARK41 and advanced to the ARK39 (FORBES, Emmanuel), out of bounds. PENALTY MSU Offsides on YOUNG, Cameron enforced 5 yards from the ARK45 to the ARK50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 5
50
-1
62.4%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 49Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+10
60.7%
JEFFERSON, K.J. pass to the right incomplete intended for WARREN, De'Vion thrown to the MSU25. PENALTY MSU Holding on WHEAT, Tyrus enforced 10 yards from the ARK49 to the MSU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
62.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+2
62.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+2
62.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+51
64.1%
Cam Little 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14MISSED FG
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:2839% → 40%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+42
60.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 42 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
55.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+2
55.7%
Will Rogers run for 2 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
57.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+46
59.9%
Brandon Ruiz 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:0063% → 86%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
63.2%
Dominique Johnson run for 24 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
67.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
66.8%
Dominique Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+15
66.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 15 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
68.3%
Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+11
69.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 11 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
69.3%
Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
69.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
86.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 14 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2917% → 42%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
81.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 12 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
80.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
81.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+10
82.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 10 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
79.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+37
57.8%
W. Rogers pass,to R. Thomas for 37 yds for a TD, (N. McCord KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 4:1466% → 71%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
66.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 9 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
68.3%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
69.0%
Treylon Burks run for 17 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
71.8%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
72.0%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+13
71.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 13 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
73.6%
JEFFERSON, K.J. pass to the right incomplete intended for BURKS, Treylon thrown to the MSU1. PENALTY ARK Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on THOMPSON, Warren enforced 5 yards from the MSU27 to the MSU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
72.7%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Tyrus Wheat and Aaron Brule for 0 yards to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 20
OPP 37
0
70.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for no gain to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 20
OPP 37
+13
68.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 13 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
70.7%
Cam Little 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 5:0534% → 86%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+29
65.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 29 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
59.6%
Will Rogers sacked by Tre Williams for 0 yards to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-10
61.3%
ROGERS, Will scrambles up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the ARK45 (MORGAN, Grant;BROOKS, JR., Greg). PENALTY MSU Holding on LASHLEY, Scott enforced 10 yards from the ARK48 to the MSU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 21
OWN 42
+19
64.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 19 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+9
60.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
57.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offsides (Eric Gregory) to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+4
57.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
57.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 7 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+5
57.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 5 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 3
OPP 9
0
56.6%
Will Rogers sacked by Isaiah Nichols and Markell Utsey for 0 yards to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+15
14.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 15 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:0130% → 95%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
33.2%
Dominique Johnson run for 11 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
34.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 4 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+19
35.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 19 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
39.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
39.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 4 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+5
38.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 5 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+10
33.1%
JEFFERSON, K.J. pass to the right incomplete intended for BURKS, Treylon thrown to the MSU20. PENALTY MSU Holding on EMERSON, Martin enforced 10 yards from the MSU25 to the MSU15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
40.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 6 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+5
40.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.3%
D. Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (D. Johnson Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20MISSED FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 0:2117% → 32%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
82.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 17 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
78.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
76.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 23 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+40
68.0%
Nolan McCord 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:21
D. Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (D. Johnson Run For Two-point Conversion)
+55.2
TD · Q4 2:22
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 15 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)
-42.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+32
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com