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LSU

LSU 14 at Alabama 20

ALA
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:36 · James Burnip punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior+14.0Home team on offense+11.9Garbage-time factor+6.4Score differential+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:52: Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +6.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:27: Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 8 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +12.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:00: Timeout LSU, clock 07:00 — ALA win probability +6.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:14: Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the Alab 41 — LSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:31: Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 43 — ALA win probability +7.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7LSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 12:31ALA 4th & 2 at LSU 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:52LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:58ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:22LSU 4th & 15 at LSU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:25LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:55ALA 4th & 2 at LSU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    88.0%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    88.0%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:58LSU 4th & 10 at ALA 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:37LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:22ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 47, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:45LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 43, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:23LSU 4th & 1 at ALA 46, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%−1.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:22ALA 4th & 15 at ALA 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:59LSU 4th & 18 at LSU 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−3.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:36ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 38, up 6
    Close callPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:05LSU 4th & 1 at ALA 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−6.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−5.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:46LSU 4th & 7 at ALA 7, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    19.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−11.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:36LSU 4th & 9 at ALA 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−3.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−4.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:50ALA 4th & 15 at ALA 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:09LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:33LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:52ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:48ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:51ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:27LSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1MISSED FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:2395% → 95%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+22
95.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 22 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
95.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 11 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
95.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 8 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
95.0%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
94.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+49
94.9%
Will Reichard 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:475% → 7%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
94.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 10 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
94.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-5
94.5%
LSU Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+8
94.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 8 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
94.3%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 4
OWN 48
+26
94.3%
Avery Atkins pass complete to Jack Mashburn for 26 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
94.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Malachi Moore) to the Alab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
94.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+5
93.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the Alab 8Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+8
93.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 8 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0093% → 93%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
93.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
93.1%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+5
92.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 5 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
92.7%
James Burnip punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:598% → 8%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
92.5%
Max Johnson sacked by Christian Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 13Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 13
OWN 13
-14
92.4%
Max Johnson sacked by TEAM for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 6 LSU Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Max Johnson) to the LSU 6Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 20
OWN 6
+5
92.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 15
OWN 11
+16
92.2%
Avery Atkins punt for 53 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 16 yds to the LSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · -7 yds · 3:1692% → 90%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
92.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+15
92.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 15 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
92.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
92.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for no gain Jameson Williams fumbled, forced by Dwight McGlothern, recovered by AlabSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 9
OPP 33
-5
91.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 14
OPP 38
-12
91.2%
Bryce Young sacked by Mike Jones Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 26
50
-5
90.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 31
OWN 45
0
90.2%
James Burnip punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0610% → 10%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
90.1%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-1
89.8%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 23Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
89.7%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 7
OWN 23
-2
89.7%
Avery Atkins punt for 44 yds , JoJo Earle returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:2590% → 88%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
89.6%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
89.6%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+12
89.2%
Bryce Young run for 12 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
89.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+14
89.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 14 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+1
89.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
89.5%
Bryce Young run for no gain to the LSU 47 Bryce Young fumbled, recovered by Alab Bryce YoungSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
88.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 8 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
88.6%
Slade Bolden run for no gain to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 11:55
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
88.0%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:4713% → 15%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
86.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+8
86.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 8 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
85.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
85.3%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-4
85.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+4
85.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
85.0%
Avery Atkins punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 6:0385% → 88%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
85.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 7 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+5
85.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 5 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
84.2%
Roydell Williams run for 7 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
84.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
50
+2
84.3%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+24
83.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Roydell Williams for 24 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
84.2%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-10
84.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cameron Latu) to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 20
OPP 34
+21
82.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 21 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
83.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 4 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
83.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
81.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0916% → 16%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.5%
Brian Thomas Jr. run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
83.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
83.8%
Max Johnson pass intercepted Jalyn Armour-Davis return for no gain to the LSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 0:2187% → 91%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
87.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 14 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
87.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 17 yds to the LSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
87.6%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
87.6%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
91.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:1210% → 10%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
90.1%
Max Johnson sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 18Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+4
90.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:4611% → 12%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
89.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+4
89.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+16
89.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 16 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
87.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 11 yds to the Alab 42 Tyrion Davis-Price fumbled, forced by Henry To'oTo'o, recovered by Alab Phidarian MathisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:0990% → 94%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
90.4%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+58
94.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 58 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:067% → 6%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
93.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 5
OWN 31
0
92.8%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
92.9%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+3
93.1%
Max Johnson run for 3 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-5
93.5%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+17
93.9%
Avery Atkins punt for 41 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 17 yds to the Alab 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0494% → 94%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
94.4%
Jameson Williams run for 1 yd to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
94.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
94.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for no gain to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
93.6%
James Burnip punt for 42 yds, downed at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
14 plays · 89 yds · 5:476% → 21%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
93.6%
Max Johnson run for 5 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+18
93.6%
Armoni Goodwin run for 3 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Phidarian Mathis) to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
93.0%
Armoni Goodwin run for 2 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+4
92.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 4 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+3
92.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Armoni Goodwin for 3 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+2
92.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
92.5%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
92.6%
Max Johnson run for 6 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
92.4%
Armoni Goodwin run for 3 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
92.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
92.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 34 yds to the Alab 10 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jontre Kirklin) to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
91.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the Alab 19Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+11
91.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 2 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Battle) to the Alab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
78.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 8 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5887% → 85%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
86.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 23Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-11
87.1%
Bryce Young sacked by Neil Farrell Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the Alab 12Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+8
86.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 8 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
85.1%
James Burnip punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0120% → 17%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
80.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for no gain to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-3
81.0%
Max Johnson sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 37Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
82.6%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 13
OWN 37
-5
83.3%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Jontre Kirklin) to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 13:59
4TH & 18
OWN 32
0
83.4%
Avery Atkins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by JoJo Earle at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1687% → 87%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
86.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 7 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
87.5%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+1
87.6%
Bryce Young run for 1 yd to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
86.6%
James Burnip punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 74 yds · 5:4319% → 16%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
81.1%
LSU Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the LSU 14Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+13
81.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 13 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 2
OWN 27
0
80.9%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+4
82.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
81.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
80.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+11
81.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 11 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
80.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 6 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
78.1%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
77.9%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+37
79.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 37 yds to the Alab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
75.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the Alab 7Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.1%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
82.4%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
84.4%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22FUMBLE
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:1790% → 92%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
90.2%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+15
90.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 15 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
91.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 7 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+4
91.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
91.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 16 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
92.9%
Bryce Young sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 39 ALABAMA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 20
OWN 39
+15
92.5%
Bryce Young run for 15 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-12
92.1%
Bryce Young sacked by Cameron Lewis for a loss of 12 yards to the Alab 42 Bryce Young fumbled, forced by Cameron Lewis, recovered by LSU Jaquelin Roy , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3818% → 13%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
81.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
82.6%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
83.4%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
87.4%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:4195% → 96%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
95.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-2
95.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-5
96.0%
Bryce Young run for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 36Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 15
OWN 36
+5
95.8%
James Burnip punt for 31 yds , Trey Palmer returns for 5 yds to the LSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:4010% → 18%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
90.1%
Max Johnson sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+10
92.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 10 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
90.8%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+16
91.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 16 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
87.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 15 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
81.9%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+18.1
TD · Q3 2:27
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 8 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
-12.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:14
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the Alab 41
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com