2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreMIZ score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:42 · Grant McKinniss punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:00: Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 45 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +14.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:28: Tyler Badie run for 15 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +13.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- FG · Q4 5:59: Harrison Mevis 52 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +10.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:11: Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — VAN win probability +29.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- TD · Q4 2:29: Tyler Macon run for 2 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +20.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 11:55MIZ 4th & 5 at VAN 29, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 82.4% before the snapGo for it82.4%41% to convertField goalTheir call82.4%−<0.158% to makePunt82.1%−0.3average punt
- Q1 10:28VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snapGo for it17.9%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.9%average punt
- Q1 5:27VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 27, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snapGo for it18.5%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.6%average punt
- Q1 0:42MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 44, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snapGo for it77.9%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.1%average punt
- Q2 5:25MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 37, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snapGo for it65.4%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.8%average punt
- Q2 2:50VAN 4th & 10 at MIZ 43, up 3Close callPunted · 34.7% before the snapGo for it34.3%30% to convertField goal33.8%−0.528% to makePuntTheir call34.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 1:05MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 24, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snapGo for it59.6%−1.338% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.0%average punt
- Q2 0:15VAN 4th & 7 at MIZ 34, up 3Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 37.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.5%−1.037% to convertField goal38.6%47% to makePunt36.4%−2.1average punt
- Q3 11:57VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 40, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snapGo for it28.6%−2.920% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.5%average punt
- Q3 9:02MIZ 4th & 13 at MIZ 49, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snapGo for it65.0%−3.021% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.9%average punt
- Q3 8:11VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 19, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snapGo for it30.4%−1.538% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.9%average punt
- Q3 5:52MIZ 4th & 2 at VAN 34, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.2%57% to convertField goal64.6%−3.647% to makePunt63.0%−5.2average punt
- Q4 14:55MIZ 4th & 7 at VAN 15, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.9% before the snapGo for it71.1%−1.434% to convertField goalTheir call72.5%83% to makePunt61.0%−11.5average punt
- Q4 13:15VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 31, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snapGo for it27.7%−1.048% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.7%average punt
- Q4 5:59MIZ 4th & 8 at VAN 35, up 6Close callKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snapGo for it82.2%34% to convertField goalTheir call82.0%−0.245% to makePunt80.7%−1.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:59MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call81.7%97% to makeGo for two81.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:42VAN Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.4%97% to makeGo for two30.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:28MIZ Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.1%97% to makeGo for two82.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:11VAN Touchdown, down 3 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call27.3%−0.797% to makeGo for two28.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMIZDrive 1FG10 plays · 49 yds · 3:0084% → 83%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
15.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 4 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+9
15.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 9 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+25
15.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 25 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2717% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3TD9 plays · 59 yds · 3:2983% → 83%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
17.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
17.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 11 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
17.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 3 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+6
17.4%
BAZELAK, Connor pass to the right incomplete intended for BANISTER, Barrett broken up by JEUDY, Gabe at the VAN14. PENALTY VAN Pass Interference on JEUDY, Gabe enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the VAN14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3218% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5INT2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4783% → 83%
VANDrive 6TD3 plays · 87 yds · 1:1918% → 22%
Q1 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
21.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 2:3380% → 79%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
20.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for no gain to the Misso 18Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
20.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 6 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+16
20.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 16 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
21.2%
Grant McKinniss punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8TD13 plays · 84 yds · 7:0021% → 32%
MIZDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 3:1771% → 67%
Q2 8:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
29.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 8 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
28.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+3
28.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 3 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
33.0%
Grant McKinniss punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 2:3533% → 34%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
32.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Akial Byers) to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
34.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to Patrick Smith for no gain to the Vandy 48Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+10
32.5%
WRIGHT, Mike pass to the right incomplete intended for BRESNAHAN, Ben broken up by MANUEL, Martez at the MIZ44. PENALTY MIZ Holding on MANUEL, Martez enforced 10 yards from the VAN47 to the MIZ43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4565% → 61%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
34.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 3 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-5
37.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Kris Abrams-Draine) to the Misso 24Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+1
38.6%
Grant McKinniss punt for 42 yds , Cam Johnson returns for 1 yd to the Vandy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12DOWNS9 plays · 26 yds · 0:5037% → 39%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
37.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Patrick Smith for 6 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
39.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 5 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
39.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 17 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
40.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 3 yds to the Misso 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13TD4 plays · 61 yds · 0:1563% → 75%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
37.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 10 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
39.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 6 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+45
24.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 45 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 3:0330% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
32.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Patrick Smith for no gain to the Vandy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 2:5571% → 67%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
29.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 6 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-10
27.7%
BADIE, Tyler rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the VAN39 (ORJI, Anfernee;JERKINS, Dashaun). PENALTY MIZ Holding on MAIETTI, Michael enforced 10 yards from the VAN44 to the MIZ46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+3
29.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 3 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
33.3%
Grant McKinniss punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5133% → 31%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD8 plays · 59 yds · 2:4370% → 82%
VANDrive 18TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2121% → 34%
Q3 3:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
33.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Gavin Schoenwald for 4 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19FG9 plays · 60 yds · 3:2173% → 78%
Q3 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
23.1%
Michael Cox run for 18 yds MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (Tauskie Dove) to the Vandy 21Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 13
OPP 21
-10
23.2%
COX, Michael rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the VAN15 (WORSHIP, Max;DAVIS, Daevion). PENALTY MIZ Holding on PARKER, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the VAN21 to the VAN31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+3
24.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 3 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4027% → 26%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21FG14 plays · 41 yds · 7:1678% → 89%
Q4 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+5
22.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offsides (Daevion Davis) to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
21.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 9 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+5
21.2%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Delay Of Game (Anfernee Orji) to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+10
20.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 10 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
19.6%
BADIE, Tyler rush to the right for no gain to the VAN37 (JEUDY, Gabe), out of bounds. PENALTY MIZ Holding on PARKER, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the VAN37 to the VAN47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22TD12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4812% → 45%
Q4 5:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+19
11.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to James Ziglor III for 19 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 7
OPP 48
+15
10.2%
WRIGHT, Mike pass to the right incomplete intended for SHEPPARD, Will broken up by ABRAMS-DRAINE, Kris at the MIZ29. PENALTY MIZ Pass Interference on ABRAMS-DRAINE, Kris enforced 15 yards to the MIZ33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+21
14.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 21 yds to the Misso 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
45.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4276% → 96%
VANDrive 24INT7 plays · 5 yds · 0:588% → 6%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
8.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
9.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 9 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
7.6%
Mike Wright sacked by Isaiah McGuire and Kobie Whiteside for 0 yards to the Vandy 40Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 17
OWN 40
-10
6.4%
WRIGHT, Mike pass to the right incomplete intended for PIERCE, Chris broken up by EVANS, Akayleb at the MIZ49. PENALTY VAN Holding on SMITH, Patrick enforced 10 yards from the VAN40 to the VAN30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:11
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+29.8
TD · Q4 2:29
Tyler Macon run for 2 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
-20.1
TD · Q2 0:00
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 45 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
-14.8