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MIZ

Missouri 37 at Vanderbilt 28

VAN
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:18 · Dawson Downing run for 3 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:00: Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 45 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +14.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:28: Tyler Badie run for 15 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +13.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 5:59: Harrison Mevis 52 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +10.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:11: Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — VAN win probability +29.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 2:29: Tyler Macon run for 2 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +20.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:55MIZ 4th & 5 at VAN 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    82.1%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:28VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:27VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 27, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:42MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:25MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:50VAN 4th & 10 at MIZ 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    33.8%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:05MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−1.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:15VAN 4th & 7 at MIZ 34, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.5%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:57VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 40, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−2.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:02MIZ 4th & 13 at MIZ 49, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−3.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:11VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 19, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:52MIZ 4th & 2 at VAN 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%−3.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−5.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:55MIZ 4th & 7 at VAN 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−11.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:15VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:59MIZ 4th & 8 at VAN 35, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:59MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:42VAN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:28MIZ Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:11VAN Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    27.3%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:0084% → 83%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
15.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 4 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+9
15.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 9 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
15.7%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+25
15.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 25 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
16.5%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-1
16.5%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+5
16.6%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
16.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+46
17.0%
Harrison Mevis 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2717% → 17%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.0%
Patrick Smith run for 5 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
17.0%
Mike Wright sacked by Chad Bailey for 0 yards to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
16.9%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
17.3%
Harrison Smith punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:2983% → 83%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
17.4%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+7
17.4%
Tyler Badie run for 7 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
17.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
17.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 11 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
17.2%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
17.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 3 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+6
17.4%
BAZELAK, Connor pass to the right incomplete intended for BANISTER, Barrett broken up by JEUDY, Gabe at the VAN14. PENALTY VAN Pass Interference on JEUDY, Gabe enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the VAN14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
17.2%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Vandy 13Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
16.9%
Tyler Badie run for 13 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3218% → 18%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.7%
Patrick Smith run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.6%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
17.5%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
17.7%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5INT
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4783% → 83%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-4
17.2%
Connor Bazelak run for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 19Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 14
OPP 19
0
17.4%
Connor Bazelak pass intercepted return for no gain to the Vandy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 1:1918% → 22%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
18.2%
Patrick Smith run for 11 yds to the Vandy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+69
18.2%
Mike Wright run for 69 yds to the Misso 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
21.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:3380% → 79%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
20.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for no gain to the Misso 18Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
20.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 6 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+16
20.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 16 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
19.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
19.8%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
19.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
21.2%
Grant McKinniss punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 7:0021% → 32%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
21.2%
Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the Vandy 17Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+14
21.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Patrick Smith for 14 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
21.7%
Mike Wright run for 4 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+7
22.2%
Patrick Smith run for 7 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
22.6%
Patrick Smith run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
50
+10
22.8%
James Ziglor III run for 10 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
22.9%
Mike Wright run for no gain to the Misso 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
22.9%
Mike Wright sacked by Trajan Jeffcoat and Kobie Whiteside for 0 yards to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+19
21.9%
Patrick Smith run for 19 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
23.3%
Patrick Smith run for 8 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+1
23.3%
James Ziglor III run for 1 yd to the Misso 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+4
22.8%
James Ziglor III run for 4 yds to the Misso 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
31.6%
Patrick Smith run for 10 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:1771% → 67%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
29.1%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
29.0%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
29.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 8 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
28.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
28.5%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+3
28.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 3 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
28.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
33.0%
Grant McKinniss punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:3533% → 34%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
32.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Akial Byers) to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
34.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to Patrick Smith for no gain to the Vandy 48Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-1
34.1%
Mike Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+10
32.5%
WRIGHT, Mike pass to the right incomplete intended for BRESNAHAN, Ben broken up by MANUEL, Martez at the MIZ44. PENALTY MIZ Holding on MANUEL, Martez enforced 10 yards from the VAN47 to the MIZ43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
35.1%
Patrick Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+2
36.5%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
36.3%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
34.3%
Harrison Smith punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4565% → 61%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
34.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 3 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
35.1%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
35.0%
Connor Bazelak run for 2 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-5
37.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Kris Abrams-Draine) to the Misso 24Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+1
38.6%
Grant McKinniss punt for 42 yds , Cam Johnson returns for 1 yd to the Vandy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:5037% → 39%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
37.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Patrick Smith for 6 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
39.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 5 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
39.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 17 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
40.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 3 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
41.3%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
40.3%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 7
OPP 34
-5
38.6%
Joseph Bulovas run for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 0:1563% → 75%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
37.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 10 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
39.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 6 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+45
24.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 45 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 3:0330% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.1%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
30.2%
Patrick Smith run for 15 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
32.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Patrick Smith for no gain to the Vandy 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
31.3%
Patrick Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
29.4%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
30.1%
Harrison Smith punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:5571% → 67%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
29.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 6 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
28.3%
Tyler Badie run for 3 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+7
28.4%
Connor Bazelak run for 7 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
27.7%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-10
27.7%
BADIE, Tyler rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the VAN39 (ORJI, Anfernee;JERKINS, Dashaun). PENALTY MIZ Holding on MAIETTI, Michael enforced 10 yards from the VAN44 to the MIZ46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+3
29.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 3 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
30.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
33.3%
Grant McKinniss punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5133% → 31%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
32.9%
Patrick Smith run for 4 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
32.9%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
31.6%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
31.2%
Harrison Smith punt for 40 yds, downed at the Misso 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:4370% → 82%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
30.3%
Tyler Badie run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 1
50
+8
29.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 8 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
29.5%
Tyler Badie run for 3 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
29.5%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+5
30.5%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+19
32.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 19 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
18.4%
Tyler Badie run for 15 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2121% → 34%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+70
21.3%
Mike Wright run for 70 yds to the Misso 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
23.5%
James Ziglor III run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 8Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
23.5%
James Ziglor III run for 4 yds to the Misso 4Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
33.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Gavin Schoenwald for 4 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:2173% → 78%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.7%
Tyler Badie run for 7 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
25.4%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+45
25.5%
Tyler Badie run for 45 yds to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
23.0%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Vandy 18Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
23.1%
Michael Cox run for 18 yds MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (Tauskie Dove) to the Vandy 21Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 13
OPP 21
-10
23.2%
COX, Michael rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the VAN15 (WORSHIP, Max;DAVIS, Daevion). PENALTY MIZ Holding on PARKER, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the VAN21 to the VAN31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 23
OPP 31
+13
23.8%
Tyler Badie run for 13 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+3
24.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 3 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
22.1%
Harrison Mevis 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4027% → 26%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.6%
Patrick Smith run for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
28.6%
Patrick Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 31Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
26.1%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
25.7%
Harrison Smith punt for 45 yds, downed at the Misso 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21FG
14 plays · 41 yds · 7:1678% → 89%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
22.3%
Michael Cox run for 5 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
21.3%
Michael Cox run for no gain to the Misso 29Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+5
22.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offsides (Daevion Davis) to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
21.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 9 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+6
20.2%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
19.9%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 48Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
20.4%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Misso 48Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+5
21.2%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Delay Of Game (Anfernee Orji) to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+10
20.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 10 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
19.6%
BADIE, Tyler rush to the right for no gain to the VAN37 (JEUDY, Gabe), out of bounds. PENALTY MIZ Holding on PARKER, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the VAN37 to the VAN47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+9
20.0%
Tyler Badie run for 9 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-3
19.7%
Connor Bazelak run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 41Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+6
21.5%
Tyler Macon run for 6 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q4 5:59
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+52
11.3%
Harrison Mevis 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4812% → 45%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.9%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.5%
Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+19
11.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to James Ziglor III for 19 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
14.1%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
13.6%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+3
10.2%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 7
OPP 48
+15
10.2%
WRIGHT, Mike pass to the right incomplete intended for SHEPPARD, Will broken up by ABRAMS-DRAINE, Kris at the MIZ29. PENALTY MIZ Pass Interference on ABRAMS-DRAINE, Kris enforced 15 yards to the MIZ33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
15.4%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+21
14.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 21 yds to the Misso 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
15.6%
Mike Wright run for 6 yds to the Misso 6Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
45.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4276% → 96%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+73
24.1%
Tyler Badie run for 73 yds to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.9%
Tyler Macon run for 2 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24INT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:588% → 6%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
8.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
9.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 9 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
11.1%
Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
7.6%
Mike Wright sacked by Isaiah McGuire and Kobie Whiteside for 0 yards to the Vandy 40Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 17
OWN 40
-10
6.4%
WRIGHT, Mike pass to the right incomplete intended for PIERCE, Chris broken up by EVANS, Akayleb at the MIZ49. PENALTY VAN Holding on SMITH, Patrick enforced 10 yards from the VAN40 to the VAN30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 27
OWN 30
0
6.1%
Mike Wright pass intercepted return for no gain to the Misso 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
3.1%
Michael Cox run for 8 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+3
2.9%
Dawson Downing run for 3 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:11
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+29.8
TD · Q4 2:29
Tyler Macon run for 2 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
-20.1
TD · Q2 0:00
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 45 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com