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UK

Kentucky 17 at Mississippi State 31

MSST
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:51 · Colin Goodfellow punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaden Walley at the MisSt 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense+21.7Score differential+6.7Garbage-time factor+4.8Pregame prior+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:45: Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +8.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 1:40: Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +9.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:27: Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 24 — MSST win probability +7.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:44: Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +9.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:37: Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 17 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +10.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 7:14MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:46MSST 4th & 14 at UK 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:14UK 4th & 9 at MSST 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:01UK 4th & 3 at UK 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:03UK 4th & 1 at UK 27, down 4
    Close callPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:37MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−3.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:34MSST 4th & 9 at UK 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−9.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 8:30MSST 4th & 5 at UK 41, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:51UK 4th & 10 at UK 37, down 14
    Close callPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:45MSST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:40MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:44MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:51MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:37UK Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1INT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:0742% → 43%
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
57.7%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 4 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
57.7%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
57.8%
Will Levis run for 5 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
57.7%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
57.7%
Will Levis pass complete to Justin Rigg for 4 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+18
57.7%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 3 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Martin Emerson) to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
57.3%
Will Levis pass intercepted Shawn Preston Jr. return for no gain to the MisSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:3158% → 54%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
57.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 5 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+3
57.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+3
57.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
58.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
57.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-5
58.2%
Will Rogers sacked by Josaih Hayes and # for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
57.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks, broken up by #Similar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 11
OWN 29
+74
54.4%
Tucker Day punt for 45 yds , Josh Ali returns for 74 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:1455% → 53%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
54.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 11 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
55.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+29
55.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 29 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
55.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-7
55.6%
Will Rogers sacked by Vito Tisdale and # for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
54.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk, broken up by #Similar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+47
53.2%
Brandon Ruiz 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 6:1047% → 51%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
52.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 5 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+6
52.5%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 6 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
51.7%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 39Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+15
51.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 15 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
50.7%
Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
50.4%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 4 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+8
50.3%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 8 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
49.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 9 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
49.2%
Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+1
49.2%
Will Levis run for 1 yd to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
48.8%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale RobinsonSimilar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
48.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 1 yd to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
48.9%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
49.0%
Matt Ruffolo 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1047% → 57%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
46.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+23
47.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 8 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Justin Rogers) to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
48.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 14 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
49.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Kameron Jones) to the Kent 35Similar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+6
48.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+7
48.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+10
47.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 10 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
48.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the Kent 5Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+3
47.2%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Quandre Mosely) to the Kent 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-5
48.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Kameron Jones) to the Kent 7Similar
Q2 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
57.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1947% → 47%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
52.8%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
52.2%
Wan'Dale Robinson run for 4 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
52.3%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+11
53.5%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 53 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 11 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0153% → 67%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
55.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 12 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
55.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
56.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
56.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 7 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+17
56.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 17 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
56.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 9 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+1
57.0%
Will Rogers run for 1 yd to the Kent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
66.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2437% → 37%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
62.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 5 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
62.5%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Justin RiggSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+4
63.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 4 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
63.2%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 70 yds, downed at the MisSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:1862% → 63%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
62.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 8
OWN 5
-2
63.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (LaQuinston Sharp) to the MisSt 3Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 3
-1
63.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 2Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 11
OWN 2
+3
63.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 8
OWN 5
+3
62.9%
Tucker Day punt for 50 yds , Wan'Dale Robinson returns for 3 yds to the Kent 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10INT
5 plays · 38 yds · 0:2335% → 38%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
65.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for 12 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
63.5%
Will Levis pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 5 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
61.6%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+21
63.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 21 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
61.6%
Will Levis pass intercepted Jalen Green return for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
64.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12FG
19 plays · 66 yds · 8:0164% → 76%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
63.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
64.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
66.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Malik Heath) to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 15
OWN 38
-10
64.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Charles Cross) to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 25
OWN 28
+8
63.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+22
63.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 22 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
69.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+4
69.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+7
69.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
71.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire Calvin, broken up by #Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+17
71.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the Kent 20 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Yusuf Corker) to the Kent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 0
OPP 10
-10
72.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kameron Jones) to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 0
OPP 20
-5
72.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Cole Smith) to the Kent 25Similar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 0
OPP 25
-3
72.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 0
OPP 28
+23
71.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 23 yds to the Kent 5Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
70.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 9Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
76.3%
Brandon Ruiz 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:2728% → 28%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.0%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-4
72.2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 22 Chris Rodriguez Jr. fumbled, recovered by MisSt Jett JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:4379% → 89%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
79.4%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 24Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+23
79.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 23 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.1%
Will Levis pass intercepted Cameron Young return for 5 yds to the Kent 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:2490% → 97%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
89.7%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 25Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+6
89.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 5
OPP 19
-6
89.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Scott Lashley) to the Kent 25Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+25
96.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:584% → 12%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 7 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
96.6%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
96.8%
Will Levis run for 3 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
97.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 18 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
97.2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+11
97.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for 11 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
97.2%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Dotson) to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+6
97.7%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+2
97.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+13
98.1%
Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 13 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
87.7%
Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 17 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:4593% → 95%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
93.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+2
93.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
93.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 13 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
94.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
94.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+15
94.5%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Cedrick Dort Jr.) to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
94.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+6
94.9%
Will Rogers run for 6 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
95.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the Kent 41Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
95.2%
Tucker Day punt for 16 yds, downed at the Kent 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:298% → 7%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 12 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
91.4%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale RobinsonSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
91.4%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Kavosiey SmokeSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
92.4%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale RobinsonSimilar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
92.6%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaden Walley at the MisSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20END OF GAME
16 plays · 55 yds · 7:3796% → 99%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
95.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
97.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Omni Wells for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
97.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
97.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 11 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
97.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+4
98.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+5
98.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
98.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (#) to the Kent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
98.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+2
98.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 18
OPP 23
+3
98.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the Kent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:37
Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 17 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q3 4:44
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q2 1:40
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com