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MISS

Ole Miss 20 at Auburn 31

AUB
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG-1AUB 57.5%Caden Costa 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q1 6:31
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:31 · Caden Costa 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior+4.9Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:49: Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +3.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:19: Snoop Conner run for 13 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +7.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 58%).
  3. TD · Q2 6:20: Bo Nix run for 7 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +8.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:42: Matt Corral run for 11 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +10.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 53%).
  5. TD · Q2 0:11: Bo Nix pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 9 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +10.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:05AUB 4th & 1 at MISS 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:31MISS 4th & 12 at AUB 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:10MISS 4th & 20 at MISS 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:44AUB 4th & 21 at AUB 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−2.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:21MISS 4th & 2 at AUB 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    30.5%−0.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:04MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 25, down 11
    Close callPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:32AUB 4th & 6 at MISS 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:18MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:14MISS 4th & 1 at AUB 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−1.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−7.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:59AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 27, up 11
    Close callPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:31MISS 4th & 25 at AUB 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:02AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−1.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:08MISS 4th & 7 at AUB 13, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    18.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−13.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:25AUB 4th & 2 at MISS 42, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−4.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−3.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:52AUB 4th & 6 at MISS 11, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−9.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:52MISS 4th & 3 at AUB 18, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%−1.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:11AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:49AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:19MISS Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:20AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:42MISS Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:11AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 4:3956% → 59%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
55.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 6 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+12
55.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 12 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
55.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Ze'Vian Capers for 13 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
56.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-2
56.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+7
56.1%
Bo Nix run for 7 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+5
56.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
56.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 14 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
56.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 11 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
56.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the Miss 11Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
58.5%
Bo Nix run for 11 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:2442% → 43%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
57.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+8
58.3%
Dontario Drummond run for 8 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+13
58.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 13 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
57.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jerrion EalySimilar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
58.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 11 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
57.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 12 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
57.7%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+19
57.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 19 yds to the Aub 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
57.8%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Aub 9Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
57.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
58.6%
Matt Corral sacked by Zakoby McClain for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 12Similar
Q1 6:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
57.5%
Caden Costa 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:3058% → 63%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+26
57.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 26 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
58.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 7 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
58.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Jarquez HunterSimilar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+5
58.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
59.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Luke Deal for 15 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
59.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+1
59.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Miss 16Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+10
59.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jake Springer) to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
59.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
59.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-5
63.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2838% → 36%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
62.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Orlando Umana for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
63.0%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Smoke Monday for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 22Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-7
63.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 15Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
64.3%
Mac Brown punt for 42 yds , Demetris Robertson returns for no gain to the Aub 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:1765% → 63%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
64.5%
Bo Nix sacked by Tylan Knight for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+5
64.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 5 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-14
64.3%
Bo Nix sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 14 yards to the Aub 32Similar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 21
OWN 32
0
62.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6TD
17 plays · 88 yds · 5:1136% → 42%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
64.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 3 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+8
64.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
64.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 8 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+7
63.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
64.0%
Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+11
63.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 11 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
63.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 5 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+6
63.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Kelly for 6 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-7
63.4%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Zakoby McClain for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 42Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 17
OPP 42
0
67.7%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 17
OPP 42
+15
68.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 15 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+5
67.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
65.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+5
65.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Derick Hall) to the Aub 15Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+2
66.0%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+13
58.2%
Snoop Conner run for 13 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 1:4261% → 72%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
61.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 11 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
61.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
63.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Isaiah Iton) to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+35
63.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 35 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
63.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 6 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jake Springer) to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.9%
Bo Nix run for 7 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2829% → 41%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
70.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 18 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
69.9%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
69.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Miles Battle for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 3
50
+6
69.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 6 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
71.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Miles Battle for no gain to the Aub 44Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
71.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 11 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
70.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 15 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
69.1%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+3
69.3%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
58.6%
Matt Corral run for 11 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 2:2963% → 77%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
63.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 7 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+16
64.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 16 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
66.1%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+14
65.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 14 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
66.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
66.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 11 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
66.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
66.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 6 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+6
65.4%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
66.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
77.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 9 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3625% → 23%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
74.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
74.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
75.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jadon JacksonSimilar
Q3 14:04
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+4
76.7%
Mac Brown punt for 50 yds , Demetris Robertson returns for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:0877% → 78%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+31
76.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 31 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
78.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+4
78.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 4 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+5
77.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Sam Williams) to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
78.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
79.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
78.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shaun ShiversSimilar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+43
77.5%
Anders Carlson 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0424% → 22%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
76.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+4
76.9%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
77.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jadon JacksonSimilar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+41
78.5%
Mac Brown punt for 41 yds , Demetris Robertson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 29 Demetris Robertson fumbled, recovered by Miss Tylan KnightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5627% → 24%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
73.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
73.5%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the Aub 21Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
74.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
76.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Casey KellySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0980% → 79%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
79.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
80.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
79.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
78.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jake Springer at the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 1:1121% → 23%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
78.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 5 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+29
78.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 29 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
76.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 23 yds to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
74.9%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
75.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Casey KellySimilar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 10
OPP 17
-5
76.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Orlando Umana) to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 15
OPP 22
-10
78.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nick Broeker) to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 25
OPP 32
0
78.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dannis JacksonSimilar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 25
OPP 32
+49
77.4%
Caden Costa 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:0479% → 78%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
78.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 14 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
79.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
79.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to John Samuel ShenkerSimilar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
78.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
77.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18DOWNS
15 plays · 67 yds · 3:4323% → 21%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
77.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
76.8%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Smoke Monday) to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
77.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 2
OWN 39
-15
75.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Dannis Jackson) to the Miss 24Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 17
OWN 24
+7
78.3%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+26
80.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 26 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
77.3%
Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+4
75.4%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
76.0%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+14
76.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 14 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
75.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to John Rhys PlumleeSimilar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
75.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
77.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 7
OPP 13
0
79.1%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19FG
13 plays · 76 yds · 5:0582% → 90%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
82.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 13 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
82.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
50
-1
85.1%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+5
84.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 5 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+4
85.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 4 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+3
84.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
87.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 24 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
88.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Luke Deal for 3 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+5
88.2%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the Miss 7 Bo Nix fumbled, recovered by AubSimilar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
87.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the Miss 6Similar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 1
OPP 6
-5
87.0%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 11Similar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
90.1%
Anders Carlson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20INT
8 plays · 61 yds · 1:4011% → 13%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
89.4%
Snoop Conner run for 11 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
89.1%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 36Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
89.6%
Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
88.9%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+25
88.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 25 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
87.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 13 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
87.5%
Matt Corral pass intercepted, touchback. Jaylin Simpson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 33 yds · 2:2392% → 94%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
91.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
92.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+18
92.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 18 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
93.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the Aub 43Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
93.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 10 yds Kobe Hudson fumbled, forced by Deantre Prince, recovered by Miss Chance CampbellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:269% → 9%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
91.2%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+26
91.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 26 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
89.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dannis JacksonSimilar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
90.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 5 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+2
90.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 3
OPP 18
0
91.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dannis JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23END OF GAME
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:1094% → 98%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
94.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+9
94.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 9 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
95.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+10
96.2%
Bo Nix run for 10 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
96.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+3
97.1%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
50
+11
97.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 11 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 12
OPP 41
-2
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:42
Matt Corral run for 11 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q2 0:11
Bo Nix pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 9 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q2 6:20
Bo Nix run for 7 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
+8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com