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MSST

Mississippi State 45 at Vanderbilt 6

VAN
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:11 · Tucker Day punt for 56 yds , Cam Johnson returns for 24 yds to the Vandy 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Home team on offense−28.2Pregame prior−25.8Score differential−13.3Garbage-time factor−4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 1:48: Brandon Ruiz 36 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +1.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:01: Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 31 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +3.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:00: Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +5.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:37: Joseph Bulovas 41 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +1.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:52: Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 9 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +5.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:18VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:48MSST 4th & 15 at VAN 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:55VAN 4th & 5 at MSST 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:46MSST 4th & 1 at VAN 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:05VAN 4th & 15 at VAN 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:46VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:11MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:32VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 43, down 21
    Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:37VAN 4th & 9 at MSST 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:30VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 19, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:14VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 30, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:45MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 38, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:32VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 30, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:18MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:01MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:00MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:52MSST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:38MSST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 3:3790% → 89%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
10.5%
Will Rogers run for 2 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+7
10.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
10.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
10.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 21 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
10.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
10.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+19
10.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 19 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
11.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0012% → 12%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.5%
Mike Wright run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
11.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to Rocko Griffin for 3 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-4
11.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to Rocko Griffin for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
11.9%
Harrison Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 7:3088% → 86%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
12.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+4
11.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
11.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-10
11.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jett Johnson) to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
11.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 12 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
11.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+14
11.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 14 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
11.8%
Will Rogers sacked by Brayden DeVault-Smith for 0 yards to the Vandy 41Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 21
OPP 41
+14
11.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 14 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+14
11.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 14 yds to the Vandy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
11.8%
Will Rogers sacked by Daevion Davis for 0 yards to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 20
OPP 23
+5
11.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 15
OPP 18
0
11.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+36
13.6%
Brandon Ruiz 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4FG
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:5313% → 15%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+61
13.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 61 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
13.9%
Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the MisSt 13Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+4
13.9%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
14.1%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
15.0%
Joseph Bulovas 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5INT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:5986% → 85%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
14.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
14.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-5
14.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+8
14.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
14.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-10
13.9%
ROGERS, Will pass to the right incomplete intended for CALVIN, Jamire thrown to the MSU45. PENALTY MSU Holding on JONES, Kameron enforced 10 yards from the MSU39 to the MSU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 13
OWN 29
0
15.1%
Will Rogers pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
16.8%
Mike Wright pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:3886% → 89%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
14.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
14.4%
Jaden Walley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
14.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
14.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jamire Calvin) to the Vandy 48Similar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 16
OPP 48
0
14.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+9
14.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+6
14.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 6 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+3
15.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
14.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+31
10.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 31 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:1712% → 11%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.5%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
11.5%
Mike Wright sacked by Randy Charlton for 0 yards to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
11.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 20Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
11.3%
Mike Wright run for no gain to the Vandy 20 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
11.2%
Harrison Smith punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
11 plays · 50 yds · 5:0589% → 95%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
50
+1
10.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 1 yd to the Vandy 49Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
10.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 4 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
11.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
10.9%
Will Rogers run for 1 yd to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+8
10.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+7
10.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
10.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+17
10.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 17 yds to the Vandy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
10.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
10.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
5.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:148% → 8%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
7.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
8.0%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 4 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
8.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Patrick Smith for 1 yd to the Vandy 41Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+1
8.1%
Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the Vandy 42Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 4
OWN 42
-5
8.1%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
7.5%
Harrison Smith punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:2795% → 95%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
4.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 1
OWN 24
0
4.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
5.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+24
4.9%
Tucker Day punt for 56 yds , Cam Johnson returns for 24 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -10 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
7.8%
Mike Wright sacked by Aaron Odom for 0 yards to the Vandy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 3:287% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.2%
Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
7.5%
Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
7.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 8 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
7.8%
Mike Wright pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for no gain to the Vandy 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
7.8%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the Vandy 43Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
7.3%
Harrison Smith punt for 50 yds, downed at the MisSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4096% → 96%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
4.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 9
0
4.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 8
OWN 9
0
4.5%
Will Rogers pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:158% → 9%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
7.7%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
7.6%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+24
7.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 24 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
8.0%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
7.8%
Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the MisSt 23Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
7.7%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
8.7%
Joseph Bulovas 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:3793% → 99%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
6.6%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+24
6.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 24 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
6.3%
Will Rogers sacked by Jaylen Mahoney for 0 yards to the Vandy 43Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+3
6.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 3 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+20
6.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 20 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
6.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for no gain to the Vandy 20Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
6.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 11 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
6.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
6.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 9 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:171% → 1%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
1.0%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
1.0%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 4 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
1.0%
Mike Wright sacked by Tyrus Wheat for 0 yards to the Vandy 19Similar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 13
OWN 19
+52
0.6%
Harrison Smith punt for 37 yds, downed at the VANDERBILT 44 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:5299% → 100%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
0.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+8
0.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
0.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 11 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
0.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 1 yd to the Vandy 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+3
0.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+9
0.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 9 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
0.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+9
0.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 9 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
0.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 5 yds to the Vandy 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
0.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
0.7%
ROGERS, Will pass to the right incomplete dropped by HARVEY, Rufus thrown to the VAN0. PENALTY VAN Roughing the Passer on DEVAULT-SMITH, Brayden enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the VAN10 to the VAN5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:170% → 0%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.3%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
0.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ben Bresnahan) to the Vandy 20Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
0.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Patrick Smith for 7 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
0.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 3 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Harrison Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:29100% → 100%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
0.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 6 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+4
0.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 4 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
0.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-5
0.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Scott Lashley) to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
0.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+59
0.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 59 yds for a TDSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
0.2%
Tucker Day punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
0.2%
Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Gavin Schoenwald for 7 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+6
0.1%
Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 6 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
0.2%
Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 2 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Jeremy Moussa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Jeremy Moussa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Harrison Smith punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:41100% → 100%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.2%
Chance Lovertich pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
0.2%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Christian Ford for 9 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+6
0.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
0.2%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 9 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-5
0.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Cole Smith) to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
0.2%
Chance Lovertich run for 7 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
0.2%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 13 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
0.2%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 18 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
0.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Grant Jackson) to the Vandy 28Similar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+28
0.1%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Rara Thomas for 28 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:440% → 0%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
0.1%
Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 4 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
0.1%
Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Logan Kyle for 5 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
0.1%
Jeremy Moussa pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:00
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
-5.8
TD · Q3 3:52
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 9 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q2 9:01
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 31 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
-3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com