2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:57 · Amari Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:57: Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 25 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +2.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:36: Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 28 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +3.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:36: Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- FG · Q3 12:03: Seth Small 28 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 7SC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:30SC 4th & 10 at TA&M 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snapGo for it11.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%average punt
- Q1 10:01SC 4th & 4 at SC 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snapGo for it11.1%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.1%average punt
- Q1 5:41SC 4th & 10 at TA&M 39, down 7Close callPunted · 11.7% before the snapGo for it11.7%30% to convertField goal11.7%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call11.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:48SC 4th & 10 at SC 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snapGo for it10.1%−0.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.6%average punt
- Q2 7:05SC 4th & 14 at SC 21, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it0.5%−1.817% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q2 0:00TA&M 4th & 10 at SC 15, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%83% to makePunt98.0%−0.9average punt
- Q3 12:03TA&M 4th & 6 at SC 11, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.2%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%87% to makePunt98.8%−0.5average punt
- Q3 10:46SC 4th & 16 at SC 19, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 7:13TA&M 4th & 8 at SC 30, up 34Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%56% to makePunt99.5%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:34SC 4th & 14 at SC 26, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 1:15SC 4th & 4 at SC 31, down 41Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:54TA&M 4th & 3 at SC 14, up 41Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%51% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%−<0.184% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 10:40TA&M 4th & 16 at TA&M 29, up 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.115% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 7:26TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 24, up 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 1:57TA&M 4th & 3 at SC 40, up 37Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%52% to convertField goal99.8%−0.134% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 0:57TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.7%97% to makeGo for two89.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:36TA&M Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:36TA&M Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:01TA&M Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:07SC Touchdown, down 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:12SC Touchdown, down 31 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1PUNT RETURN TD7 plays · 16 yds · 2:179% → 9%
Q1 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+15
91.1%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
90.9%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Jaheim Bell for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 49Similar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 10
OPP 48
+95
91.0%
Kai Kroeger punt for 43 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 95 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 2:199% → 9%
TA&MDrive 3INT5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1591% → 91%
SCDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0510% → 10%
TA&MDrive 5TD12 plays · 90 yds · 4:3390% → 92%
Q1 4:20
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+4
89.6%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 4 yds to the TexAM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
89.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 17 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
89.9%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
90.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 8 yds to the SCaro 20 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SCaro 30Similar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
89.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kenyon Green) to the SCaro 25Similar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+25
91.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 25 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:589% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7TD10 plays · 73 yds · 4:0492% → 95%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
91.6%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 11 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+12
91.7%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-4
92.1%
Devon Achane run for 6 yds to the SCaro 18 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SCaro 28Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+28
95.1%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 28 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8FUMBLE4 plays · -19 yds · 1:105% → 5%
Q2 9:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-19
95.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 19 yards to the SCaro 6 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexAM Aaron HansfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9TD3 plays · 6 yds · 0:2796% → 96%
SCDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:262% → 2%
TA&MDrive 11END OF HALF17 plays · 79 yds · 6:4598% → 99%
TA&MDrive 12FG10 plays · 64 yds · 2:4799% → 100%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.1%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 11 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+15
99.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 15 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+33
99.3%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 33 yds to the SCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 0:551% → 1%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.4%
Zeb Noland pass complete to ZaQuandre White for 4 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
99.5%
Zeb Noland sacked by Tyree Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 19Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
99.5%
Kai Kroeger punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14MISSED FG9 plays · 37 yds · 3:10100% → 100%
Q3 9:25
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+7
99.6%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 7 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q3 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+2
99.7%
Zeb Noland pass complete to ZaQuandre White for 2 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-7
99.7%
Zeb Noland sacked by McKinnley Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the SCaro 26Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
99.7%
Kai Kroeger punt for 48 yds , Ainias Smith returns for no gain to the TexAM 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16TD5 plays · 74 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q3 1:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+3
99.8%
Zeb Noland pass complete to ZaQuandre White for 3 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18FG5 plays · 20 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.9%
Jason Brown pass complete to E.J. Jenkins for 14 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+15
99.9%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the TexAM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
99.9%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (10 Yards) to the TexAM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:40
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+20
99.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 56 yds , Josh Vann returns for 20 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21INT4 plays · 34 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 8:55
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+29
99.9%
Jason Brown pass complete to Josh Vann for 14 yds to the TEXASAM 46 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Jason Brown pass intercepted, touchback. Tyreek Chappell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q4 7:26
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Josh Vann at the SCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23INT6 plays · 27 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Jason Brown pass complete to Trey Adkins for 1 yd to the SCaro 31Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 15 yds to the TEXASAM 45 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SCaro 45Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+12
99.9%
Jason Brown pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 12 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Jason Brown pass intercepted Deuce Harmon return for no gain to the TexAM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24DOWNS7 plays · 18 yds · 3:13100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 25TD11 plays · 59 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q4 1:22
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+8
100.0%
Jason Brown pass complete to Traevon Kenion for 8 yds to the TexAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+16
100.0%
Jason Brown pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 16 yds to the TexAM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
100.0%
Jason Brown pass complete to ZaQuandre White for 7 yds to the TexAM 7Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+12
100.0%
Jason Brown pass complete to Traevon Kenion for 12 yds for a TD (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:36
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 28 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
+3
TD · Q1 0:57
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 25 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q2 8:36
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
+0.4