Try the model
LSU

LSU 17 at Ole Miss 31

MISS
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG—MISS 98.9%Cade York 47 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 31 · Q4 7:28
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:28 · Cade York 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Home team on offense+29.8Pregame prior+2.8Score differential+21.6Garbage-time factor+8.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:12: Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 2 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +7.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:15: Matt Corral run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +7.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:59: Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +9.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:27: Jerrion Ealy run for 36 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +3.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:55: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Malik Nabers for 9 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:02MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:20MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:51LSU 4th & 3 at MISS 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:44MISS 4th & 23 at LSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−4.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:23LSU 4th & 8 at MISS 37, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:20LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:10LSU 4th & 13 at LSU 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:50MISS 4th & 3 at LSU 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−0.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:37MISS 4th & 2 at midfield, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:08LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 17, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:00MISS 4th & 5 at LSU 38, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:05MISS 4th & 17 at LSU 40, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:28LSU 4th & 26 at MISS 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:44MISS 4th & 7 at LSU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−<0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:29LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:12MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:15MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:59MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:27MISS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:55LSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 1:3672% → 72%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
72.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-10
72.3%
Parrish Jr., Henry rush for 3 yards to the OLEMISS35, PENALTY OLEMISS illegal block 10 yards to the OLEMISS22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+15
72.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 15 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
72.2%
Matt Corral sacked by BJ Ojulari for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+6
72.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
72.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jadon JacksonSimilar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 6
OWN 41
-5
72.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Dontario Drummond) to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+53
72.0%
Mac Brown punt for 53 yds , Trey Palmer returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 4:0128% → 32%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
72.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+4
71.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 4 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+14
71.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 14 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
71.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+44
71.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 44 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
70.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 7 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+9
70.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 9 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
70.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price 1 Yd Run (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0569% → 68%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+11
68.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 11 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
68.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
68.0%
Mac Brown punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4INT
17 plays · 70 yds · 6:0932% → 36%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
67.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 8 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
67.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
66.9%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
66.9%
Johnson, Max pass incomplete to Jenkins, Jaray, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Johnson, Tysheem) 11 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
50
+5
66.3%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+12
65.9%
Corey Kiner run for 12 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
65.5%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+13
65.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 13 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
64.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for no gain to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
64.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+9
64.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 9 yds Jaray Jenkins fumbled, forced by AJ Finley, recovered by LSU Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+5
64.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
63.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Miss 6Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
63.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the Miss 2Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
63.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 3Similar
Q1 0:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
63.7%
Max Johnson pass intercepted Tysheem Johnson return for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:4964% → 65%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+13
64.4%
Snoop Conner run for 13 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
64.3%
Snoop Conner run for 9 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+23
64.6%
Snoop Conner run for 23 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
65.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+15
64.4%
Corral, Matt pass incomplete to Drummond, Dontario, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Ryan, Sage) 15 yards to the LSU40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
65.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to JJ HenrySimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
65.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 11 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
65.9%
Matt Corral run for 8 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+1
65.7%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+8
64.6%
Matt Corral run for 8 yds to the LSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-8
65.3%
Matt Corral sacked by Neil Farrell Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 20 OLE MISS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Matt Corral) to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 18
OPP 20
-9
64.5%
Matt Corral sacked by Damone Clark for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 27
OPP 29
+4
62.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 4 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 23
OPP 25
+43
65.1%
Caden Costa 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 3:5935% → 39%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
64.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
64.1%
Johnson, Max pass incomplete to Bech, Jack, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Reese, Otis) 15 yards to the LSU47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
62.8%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-1
62.2%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+9
61.1%
Max Johnson run for 9 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
60.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
60.2%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
60.3%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+55
61.5%
Cade York 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:4864% → 74%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
64.0%
Dontario Drummond pass complete to Matt Corral for 19 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
65.8%
Snoop Conner run for 22 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
66.9%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
66.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 1 yd to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 9
OPP 21
-10
65.2%
Ealy, Jerrion rush for 21 yards to the LSU0, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Rhodes, Jordan) 10 yards to the LSU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 19
OPP 31
+29
63.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 29 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
66.8%
Ealy, Jerrion rush for loss of 2 yards to the LSU4, PENALTY LSU substitution infraction 1 yards to the LSU1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
66.7%
Matt Corral run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 2Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 2 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:4028% → 27%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
71.9%
Max Johnson sacked by MoMo Sanogo for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+3
72.8%
Max Johnson run for 3 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
73.2%
Avery Atkins punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:5671% → 81%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
71.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
70.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+11
69.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 11 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
71.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+27
71.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 27 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
73.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 6 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+18
73.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Miles Battle for 18 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
73.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the LSU 3Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
81.2%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
80.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3121% → 18%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
78.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-10
80.2%
Max Johnson sacked by Chance Campbell for a loss of 10 yards to the LSU 22 Max Johnson fumbled, forced by Chance Campbell, recovered by LSUSimilar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+11
81.7%
Avery Atkins punt for 55 yds , Dontario Drummond returns for 11 yds to the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:4681% → 93%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+34
81.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 34 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
82.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-6
82.5%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+13
81.4%
Snoop Conner run for 13 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
82.9%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+1
83.0%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the LSU 16Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+2
82.4%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+4
81.6%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
83.5%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:4010% → 11%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+19
89.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 19 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
89.4%
Max Johnson sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 42 Max Johnson fumbled, forced by Cedric Johnson, recovered by Miss Jake Springer , return for 0 yards OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sam Williams) to the Miss 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5393% → 93%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
93.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
93.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 2
50
0
93.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 2
50
0
92.7%
Mac Brown punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:018% → 8%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
92.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 8 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 2
OWN 16
0
92.1%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+1
92.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
92.5%
Avery Atkins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:3394% → 98%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
93.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
50
+9
94.1%
Snoop Conner run for 9 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+7
94.1%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
94.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+3
94.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 3 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+36
97.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 36 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:062% → 2%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
97.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Devonta Lee for 12 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
97.8%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jontre KirklinSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
97.9%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-2
97.9%
Max Johnson sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 43 Max Johnson fumbled, forced by Sam Williams, recovered by Miss Cedric Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 3 yds · 3:2498% → 99%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-3
98.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+8
98.3%
Matt Corral run for 8 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+5
98.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 5 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
99.1%
Parrish Jr., Henry rush for 11 yards to the LSU22, PENALTY OLEMISS holding 10 yards to the LSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 20
OPP 43
0
99.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to John Rhys PlumleeSimilar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+1
99.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 19
OPP 42
-5
99.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Jordan Rhodes) to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 24
OPP 47
+7
99.1%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 17
OPP 40
0
99.0%
Mac Brown punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 3:571% → 1%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
98.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Jack Bech for 9 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
98.5%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Devonta LeeSimilar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
98.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+11
98.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Jack Bech for 11 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
98.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 23 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
98.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Trey PalmerSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
98.4%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+5
98.5%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
98.4%
Corey Kiner run for 11 yds to the Miss 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
98.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
98.4%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-16
98.9%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Tavius Robinson for a loss of 16 yards to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 26
OPP 29
+47
98.9%
Cade York 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:2599% → 100%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.3%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
99.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 13 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
99.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 12 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
99.4%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+12
99.5%
Snoop Conner run for 12 yds Snoop Conner fumbled, forced by Damone Clark, recovered by LSUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:351% → 6%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 11 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
99.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Jack Bech for 7 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+33
99.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 33 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
93.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Malik Nabers for 9 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
10 plays · 24 yds · 2:3098% → 99%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
97.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 5 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
97.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
97.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-2
98.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+4
98.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+9
99.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 9 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:59
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q2 0:15
Matt Corral run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q2 3:12
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 2 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com