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MISS

Ole Miss 31 at Tennessee 26

TENN
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:53 · Mac Brown punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Velus Jones Jr. at the Tenn 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Home team on offense−17.9Pregame prior−4.3Garbage-time factor−5.8Score differential−9.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:51: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +6.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:27: Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 33 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +6.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:30: Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +14.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Chase McGrath 39 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +7.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:38: Jabari Small run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +13.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8MISS made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 14:57MISS 4th & 6 at TENN 49, tied
    Close callWent for it · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:48MISS 4th & 17 at TENN 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:55TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:41MISS 4th & 3 at TENN 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    53.2%−0.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:04TENN 4th & 9 at MISS 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:44MISS 4th & 8 at TENN 13, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:57TENN 4th & 27 at TENN 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:57MISS 4th & 3 at TENN 47, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:07TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 37, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:26TENN 4th & 15 at MISS 40, down 15
    Close callPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    29.2%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:53MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 33, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−2.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:11MISS 4th & 9 at TENN 27, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−10.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:06TENN 4th & 10 at MISS 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:37TENN 4th & 17 at MISS 49, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:08MISS 4th & 10 at TENN 49, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:54TENN 4th & 24 at TENN 36, down 5
    Close callWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:27MISS 4th & 17 at MISS 34, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−2.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:50MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:51TENN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:27MISS Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:30MISS Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:38TENN Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 31 yds · 4:0958% → 57%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
41.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 8 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+17
41.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 17 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
41.7%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+2
41.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 2 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q1 14:57
4TH & 6
OPP 49
+9
41.7%
Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
41.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-10
41.7%
Ealy,Jerrion rush for 3 yards gain to the TEN33 (Taylor,Alontae; Blakely,Ja'Quain) PENALTY MIS Holding (James,Jeremy) 10 yards from TEN36 to TEN46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+8
41.7%
Matt Corral run for 8 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+1
41.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 1 yd to the Tenn 39Similar
Q1 14:57
4TH & 9
OPP 39
-10
41.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tenn 47Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
41.7%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
43.1%
Mac Brown punt for 36 yds , returns for no gain to the Tenn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2TD
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:5858% → 59%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
42.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 14
OPP 15
0
42.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+8
42.8%
Corral,Matt pass incomplete to Parrish Jr.,Henry PENALTY TEN Holding (Flowers,Trevon) 8 yards from TEN15 to TEN07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
42.3%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the Tenn 1Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.7%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5541% → 41%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.2%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
41.3%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
41.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 4 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
40.7%
Paxton Brooks punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:1459% → 60%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
41.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 15Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+4
41.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 13
OWN 11
+23
41.6%
Matt Corral run for 23 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
41.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 7 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+7
40.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 7 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
40.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
40.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
40.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for no gain to the Tenn 45Similar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 3
OPP 45
-5
39.7%
Matt Corral sacked by Matthew Butler for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3741% → 40%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
50
0
41.0%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 10
50
+1
40.8%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
40.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
39.9%
Paxton Brooks punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6SF
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:2960% → 58%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
40.4%
PENALTY MIS False Start (Broeker,Nick) 3 yards from MIS07 to MIS04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+1
40.4%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Miss 5Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 12
OWN 5
0
40.4%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 12
OWN 5
0
42.4%
Omari Thomas SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 0:3741% → 48%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
41.2%
Jabari Small run for 11 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+22
41.3%
Jabari Small run for 22 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
48.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 16 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:0154% → 57%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
45.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 7 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
45.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+10
45.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
44.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 19 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
44.0%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
44.1%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+18
44.6%
Matt Corral run for 18 yds to the Tenn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
43.9%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Tenn 13Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
43.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Casey KellySimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
44.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
43.3%
Caden Costa 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -17 yds · 1:4743% → 42%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
42.6%
Small,Jabari rush for 2 yards gain to the TEN27 (Springer,Jake) PENALTY TEN Illegal Formation 5 yards from TEN25 to TEN20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
42.5%
PENALTY TEN False Start (Davis,Dayne) 5 yards from TEN20 to TEN15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+3
42.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jabari Small for 3 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-3
42.5%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Jake Springer for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 15
-7
41.9%
Hendon Hooker sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 8Similar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 27
OWN 8
0
41.8%
Paxton Brooks punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:3058% → 65%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
42.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dannis JacksonSimilar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
42.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+5
42.9%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+3
42.9%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
42.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
42.2%
Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
41.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
34.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 33 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:2035% → 34%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.3%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
35.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 5 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
35.6%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
35.8%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
35.9%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-4
36.0%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Mark Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 37Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
33.6%
Paxton Brooks punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 9 , Dontario Drummond returns for no gain to the Miss 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12TD
13 plays · 91 yds · 3:3762% → 79%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
38.2%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+7
38.1%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+3
38.2%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+13
38.8%
Matt Corral run for 13 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST down run for 11 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
37.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 7 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
37.8%
Matt Corral sacked by Matthew Butler for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 15 Matt Corral fumbled, recovered by Miss Jordan Rhodes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+50
36.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 50 yds to the Tenn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
35.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
35.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+10
36.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 10 yds to the Tenn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
35.2%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Tenn 1Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.2%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 2:5823% → 22%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 1 yd to the Tenn 26Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
23.2%
Jabari Small run for no gain to the Tenn 26Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
23.0%
Hooker,Hendon pass incomplete to Tillman,Cedric PENALTY MIS Offside declined MIS Pass Interference (Jones,Jaylon) 15 yards from TEN26 to TEN41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
24.6%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+10
24.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 10 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
24.9%
Small,Jabari rush for 7 yards gain to the MIS40 (Campbell,Chance) PENALTY MIS Illegal Substitution 5 yards from MIS47 to MIS42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 5
OPP 42
+7
23.9%
Len'Neth Whitehead run for 7 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-7
25.3%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Mark Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+2
24.6%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 15
OPP 40
0
23.5%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jabari SmallSimilar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
22.4%
Paxton Brooks punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 1:3380% → 83%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
20.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 12 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
19.6%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+16
19.8%
Matt Corral run for 16 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
19.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-2 Yards) to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+2
19.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
16.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to John Rhys PlumleeSimilar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
17.1%
Mac Brown punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Velus Jones Jr. at the Tenn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 0:5322% → 27%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
22.4%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
22.3%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+18
22.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 18 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
22.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 12 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+30
21.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 30 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+39
27.1%
Chase McGrath 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 2:1829% → 43%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
28.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 9 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+2
29.5%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
28.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 12 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
29.8%
Jabari Small run for 26 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
31.5%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
31.2%
Len'Neth Whitehead run for no gain to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+29
29.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 29 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jahcour Pearson) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.2%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17FG
15 plays · 58 yds · 5:1765% → 74%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
35.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+12
35.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for 12 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
34.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
35.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+9
36.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 9 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
33.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
33.4%
Matt Corral run for 11 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
32.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 3 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
32.3%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+20
32.7%
Matt Corral run for 20 yds to the Tenn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
30.9%
PENALTY MIS False Start (Drummond,Dontario) 5 yards from TEN28 to TEN33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
31.4%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+8
32.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-2
32.5%
Matt Corral sacked by Aaron Beasley for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 27Similar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
26.5%
Caden Costa 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:0528% → 34%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
28.3%
Hendon Hooker run for 14 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
30.5%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
29.3%
Hendon Hooker run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 1
50
+5
31.4%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
32.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 13 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
33.4%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+1
33.3%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
31.1%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+49
34.3%
Chase McGrath 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:0268% → 73%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
32.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 9 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-4
31.1%
Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jahcour Pearson) to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
32.2%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+8
34.1%
Matt Corral run for 8 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+4
31.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 4 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+32
30.7%
Matt Corral run for 32 yds to the Tenn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
28.3%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Tenn 16Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+16
26.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 16 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 3:1429% → 31%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
28.7%
Hendon Hooker run for 1 yd to the Tenn 11Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+4
28.4%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+26
27.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 26 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
30.0%
Hendon Hooker run for 4 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+20
30.5%
Hendon Hooker run for 20 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+28
33.5%
Hendon Hooker run for 21 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Sam Williams) to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
35.3%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
33.4%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
31.3%
Hendon Hooker run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21INT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0471% → 75%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
28.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
29.1%
Matt Corral run for 12 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
26.5%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
26.4%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
24.7%
Matt Corral pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 19 yds · 4:0026% → 23%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
26.3%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
26.2%
Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+10
26.2%
Hendon Hooker run for 10 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
29.2%
Marcus Pierce Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tenn 46Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+10
27.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 10 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
29.1%
Marcus Pierce Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
30.4%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tenn 49Similar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 19
OWN 49
+3
27.4%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+1
27.7%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 17
OPP 49
0
27.0%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jacob WarrenSimilar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 17
OPP 49
0
23.3%
Paxton Brooks punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
13 plays · 39 yds · 3:2972% → 82%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
28.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 1 yd to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+10
28.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
27.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 1 yd to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+12
28.4%
Matt Corral run for 12 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
26.5%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
16.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Snoop ConnerSimilar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+12
17.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 12 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
15.5%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to John Rhys PlumleeSimilar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
15.7%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the Tenn 49Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
15.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
17.9%
Mac Brown punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:1417% → 9%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
16.9%
Hendon Hooker run for 16 yds to the Tenn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
14.8%
Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+9
14.9%
Hendon Hooker run for 9 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
15.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
50
-7
17.7%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 43Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 17
OWN 43
-10
14.8%
Hooker,Hendon rush for 5 yards gain to the TEN48 (Campbell,Chance) PENALTY TEN Holding (Carvin,Jerome) 10 yards from TEN43 to TEN33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 27
OWN 33
0
14.3%
Hendon Hooker run for no gain to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 27
OWN 33
+3
13.8%
Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 24
OWN 36
+23
9.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for 23 yds to the Miss 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:2795% → 94%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
5.0%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+1
5.3%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+5
5.5%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 17
OWN 34
+40
6.3%
Mac Brown punt for 53 yds , Velus Jones Jr. returns for 40 yds to the Miss 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:2711% → 10%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
11.4%
Hendon Hooker run for 14 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
15.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Walker Merrill for 12 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
17.0%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
15.5%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+13
9.5%
Joe Milton III run for 13 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:30
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)
-14
TD · Q3 12:38
Jabari Small run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+13.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com