Try the model
TA&M

Texas A&M 35 at Missouri 14

MIZ
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:54 · Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Messiah Swinson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Home team on offense−46.2Pregame prior−1.6Score differential−27.3Garbage-time factor−17.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:43: Devon Achane run for 20 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +4.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:09: Tyler Badie run for 32 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +6.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:45: Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 11 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +8.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:12: Dominic Lovett run for 7 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +7.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:33: Devon Achane run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +6.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:28MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:56MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:19TA&M 4th & 16 at MIZ 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    42% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:46MIZ 4th & 12 at MIZ 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:43TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:14MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:46TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 34, up 21
    Close callPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:02MIZ 4th & 12 at TA&M 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:33TA&M 4th & 7 at MIZ 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:07MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:21MIZ 4th & 19 at TA&M 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:11TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:20MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:54MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:41TA&M 4th & 5 at MIZ 37, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:25TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:55TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:43TA&M Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:09MIZ Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:45TA&M Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:12MIZ Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:33TA&M Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1INT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:3321% → 22%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
20.9%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Chance LuperSimilar
Q1 14:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
21.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Chance Luper for 9 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
21.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
21.2%
Bazelak, Connor pass complete to Chism, Keke for 16 yards to the TEXASAM45, PENALTY MISSOURI illegal shift (Dove, Tauskie) 5 yards to the MISSOURI34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 15
OWN 34
-17
21.5%
Connor Bazelak pass intercepted Jaylon Jones return for 17 yds to the Misso 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2TD
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:5279% → 79%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
21.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 13 yds to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
21.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 10Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
21.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Demond Demas for 8 yds to the Misso 2Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.3%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 2 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5022% → 22%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
21.8%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Misso 27Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
21.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 7 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
22.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Javon Foster) to the Misso 29Similar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
21.9%
Grant McKinniss punt for 60 yds, downed at the TexAM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4TD
5 plays · 89 yds · 1:2678% → 80%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
22.1%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 12 yds to the TexAM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
22.0%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Isaiah SpillerSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+19
22.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for 19 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
21.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Chase Lane for 10 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
19.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 48 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:5521% → 21%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
20.9%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
20.7%
Bazelak, Connor pass pass intercepted by O'Neal Jr., Leon at the MISSOURI46, O'Neal Jr., Leon return 0 yards to the MISSOURI46, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Cooper, Edgerrin) 10 yards to the MISSOURI40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI.Similar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
21.0%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Misso 40Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
20.9%
Tyler Badie run for 5 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
21.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Dominic LovettSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
20.9%
Grant McKinniss punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:0680% → 85%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
19.9%
Devon Achane run for 12 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
19.8%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Devon AchaneSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
19.9%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+15
19.9%
Calzada, Zach pass incomplete to Wydermyer, Jalen, PENALTY MISSOURI pass interference (Robinson, Shawn) 15 yards to the TEXASAM46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
19.6%
Devon Achane run for 20 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
19.4%
Devon Achane run for 19 yds to the Misso 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
19.4%
Devon Achane run for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 15
OPP 20
0
19.3%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Devon AchaneSimilar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+20
15.0%
Devon Achane run for 20 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:3816% → 15%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-8
15.8%
Connor Bazelak sacked by DeMarvin Leal for a loss of 8 yards to the Misso 4Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 18
OWN 4
+22
15.5%
Michael Cox run for 22 yds to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
15.5%
Michael Cox run for 2 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-6
15.3%
Connor Bazelak pass intercepted Antonio Johnson return for 6 yds to the Misso 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8MISSED FG
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2887% → 87%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
13.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-10
12.9%
Spiller, Isaiah rush for 10 yards to the MISSOURI16, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Green, Kenyon) 10 yards to the MISSOURI36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 36
0
12.7%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 16
OPP 36
0
12.6%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen PrestonSimilar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 16
OPP 36
+54
12.8%
Seth Small 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:2215% → 14%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
14.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 9 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
15.2%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
14.9%
Badie, Tyler rush for 3 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY MISSOURI holding (Cook, Case) 10 yards to the MISSOURI37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 20
OWN 37
-6
14.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 31Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 26
OWN 31
+6
13.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Chance Luper for 6 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 20
OWN 37
+8
13.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Chance Luper for 8 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
13.9%
Grant McKinniss punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5988% → 89%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
11.6%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the TexAM 20Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
11.4%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
11.4%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Chase LaneSimilar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+1
11.5%
Nik Constantinou punt for 47 yds , D'ionte Smith returns for 1 yd to the Misso 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:3014% → 20%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
13.5%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
13.3%
Connor Bazelak run for 5 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+13
13.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to JJ Hester for 13 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
13.8%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the TexAM 47Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+15
13.4%
Bazelak, Connor pass incomplete to Chism, Keke, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Jones, Jaylon) 15 yards to the TEXASAM32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI.Similar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
20.0%
Tyler Badie run for 32 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1882% → 92%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
18.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 14 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
17.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 6 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-2
17.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 43Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+8
17.3%
Calzada, Zach pass incomplete to Preston, Jalen, PENALTY MISSOURI pass interference (Evans, Akayleb) 8 yards to the MISSOURI49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+27
17.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 27 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
16.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 10 yds to the Misso 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
16.7%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the Misso 11Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
8.5%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 11 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2212% → 11%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
11.9%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Misso 15Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+2
11.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 2 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
11.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to JJ HesterSimilar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
11.3%
Grant McKinniss punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14INT
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:3692% → 93%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
8.2%
Devon Achane run for 18 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
8.2%
Devon Achane run for 4 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+6
7.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 6 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-37
6.8%
Zach Calzada pass intercepted Jaylon Carlies return for 27 yds to the Misso 1 MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (Trajan Jeffcoat) to the Misso 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15END OF HALF
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:4211% → 13%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
10.9%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+1
10.9%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+6
12.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 6 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
12.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 8 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
12.9%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Chance LuperSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
12.7%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Misso 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1092% → 92%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the TexAM 26Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
7.6%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Isaiah SpillerSimilar
Q3 14:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
8.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Reuben Fatheree II) to the TexAM 21Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+13
8.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for 13 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-4
8.1%
Nik Constantinou punt for 56 yds , D'ionte Smith returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 30 MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (3 Yards) to the Misso 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD
15 plays · 97 yds · 5:2910% → 16%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
9.9%
Tyler Badie run for 2 yds to the Misso 5Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+1
9.7%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Misso 6Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+24
9.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 24 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
9.8%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
9.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 5 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
10.3%
Tyler Badie run for 11 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
10.5%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 12
50
0
9.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tauskie DoveSimilar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 12
50
+5
9.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 5 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 7
OPP 45
+14
9.3%
Bazelak, Connor pass incomplete to Chism, Keke, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Jones, Jaylon) 14 yards to the TEXASAM31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI.Similar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
10.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for 2 yds to the TexAM 29 MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (Dominic Lovett) to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 18
OPP 39
+26
9.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 26 yds to the TexAM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
10.1%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the TexAM 7Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
9.3%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the TexAM 7Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
16.3%
Dominic Lovett run for 7 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:3287% → 98%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
12.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 11 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
12.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 5 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+11
11.3%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Chase Lane for 11 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-17
11.0%
Zach Calzada sacked by Martez Manuel for a loss of 17 yards to the TexAM 35Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 27
OWN 35
+10
11.9%
Calzada, Zach pass incomplete to Spiller, Isaiah, PENALTY MISSOURI holding (Wingo, Mekhi) 10 yards to the TEXASAM45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 17
OWN 45
0
11.1%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen PrestonSimilar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 17
OWN 45
+21
11.3%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 21 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
10.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
10.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 11 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
9.2%
Devon Achane run for 7 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+4
8.9%
Devon Achane run for 4 yds to the Misso 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
8.4%
Devon Achane run for 11 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.9%
Devon Achane run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:224% → 4%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
4.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 34 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
4.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 43Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+3
4.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 3 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 9
OPP 40
-3
4.0%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 43Similar
Q3 0:02
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
3.7%
Grant McKinniss punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:2898% → 98%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
2.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+18
1.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 18 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
1.8%
Devon Achane run for 6 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+17
1.7%
Devon Achane run for 2 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Trajan Jeffcoat) to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
1.6%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Max Wright for 8 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+2
1.5%
Devon Achane run for 2 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
1.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
1.3%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen PrestonSimilar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
1.3%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Demond DemasSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
1.6%
Seth Small 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 4:052% → 2%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
2.4%
Dominic Lovett run for 10 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
2.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Daniel Parker Jr. for 6 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
2.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Niko HeaSimilar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
2.3%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tyler BadieSimilar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+6
2.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Chance Luper for 6 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
2.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tauskie DoveSimilar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
2.4%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the TexAM 49Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+13
2.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to JJ Hester for 13 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
2.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Chance Luper for 4 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-3
2.6%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 35Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-10
2.2%
Connor Bazelak sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards to the TexAM 45 MISSOURI Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Connor Bazelak) to the TexAM 45Similar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 19
OPP 45
0
1.9%
Grant McKinniss punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:0199% → 99%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+20
1.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 20 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
0.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the TexAM 32Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
0.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
0.7%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Demond DemasSimilar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
0.7%
Nik Constantinou punt for 41 yds, fair catch by D'ionte Smith at the Misso 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 18 yds · 2:121% → 1%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
1.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Chance LuperSimilar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
1.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 6 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-5
1.1%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Dominic Lovett) to the Misso 25Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+8
1.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 8 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+2
1.1%
Micah Wilson run for 2 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
1.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Tyler BadieSimilar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
1.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Chance Luper for 7 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-10
1.0%
Bazelak, Connor pass incomplete to Hester, JJ, PENALTY MISSOURI holding (White, Hyrin) 10 yards to the MISSOURI32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+10
1.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 10 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
1.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incomplete to Messiah SwinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
0.5%
Amari Daniels run for 6 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-1
0.5%
Amari Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 37Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
0.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the Misso 37Similar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+5
0.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:45
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 11 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q3 8:12
Dominic Lovett run for 7 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
+7
TD · Q2 8:09
Tyler Badie run for 32 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com