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ALA

Alabama 49 at Mississippi State 9

MSST
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:32 · Archer Trafford punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Pregame prior−29.1Home team on offense−5.9Score differential−2.6Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:54: Will Rogers pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Battle return for 40 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +1.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:15: Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +7.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:46: Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 75 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +7.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:40: Brandon Ruiz 37 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +1.6 pts (now 10%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:24: Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 51 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:52MSST 4th & 9 at ALA 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:04ALA 4th & 15 at ALA 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:06MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:15ALA 4th & 8 at MSST 45, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:32MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:59MSST 4th & 15 at ALA 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:40MSST 4th & 19 at ALA 19, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−2.3
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:51ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 30, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:50MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 40, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:37MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 26, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:58MSST 4th & 17 at MSST 38, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:34ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:54ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:15ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:46ALA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:24ALA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:37ALA Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:20ALA Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1INT
9 plays · 40 yds · 1:5913% → 14%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
13.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
13.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
13.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 8 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
13.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
50
+15
14.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 15 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
14.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
14.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-6
14.3%
Will Rogers pass intercepted Josh Jobe return for 6 yds to the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1686% → 86%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
14.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
14.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 5 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
14.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
14.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+6
14.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 6 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+46
14.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 46 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 3:3315% → 17%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
14.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
14.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+4
15.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
15.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to J.J. JernighanSimilar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
15.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+11
14.9%
Will Rogers run for 11 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
15.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 7 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+6
15.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 6 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
16.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
16.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
16.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+44
16.5%
Brandon Ruiz 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3184% → 83%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
16.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
16.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-6
16.8%
Bryce Young sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 40Similar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
17.5%
James Burnip punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5INT TD
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:0617% → 16%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
17.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 1
OWN 24
0
17.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+1
17.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-40
15.8%
Will Rogers pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Battle return for 40 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4416% → 15%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
15.8%
Will Rogers sacked by Byron Young for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 20Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+9
15.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
15.2%
Will Rogers sacked by Christian Harris and Brian Branch for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
15.0%
Archer Trafford punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4085% → 84%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
15.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 4 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+9
15.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
15.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
15.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+4
15.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 4 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
15.8%
James Burnip punt for 38 yds, downed at the MisSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:3816% → 16%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
15.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+5
15.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
16.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 16 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
16.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 4 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-5
16.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
16.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+12
15.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 12 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
16.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-10
16.6%
Rogers, Will pass complete to Johnson, Dillon for loss of 3 yards to the MISSSTATE45, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding 10 yards to the MISSSTATE38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+1
16.2%
Will Rogers run for 1 yd to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 19
OWN 39
+6
16.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
15.9%
Archer Trafford punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
17 plays · 93 yds · 7:1084% → 92%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
16.3%
Bryce Young run for no gain to the Alab 7Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+17
16.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 17 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
16.3%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
16.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 2 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+8
16.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 18 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
16.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 10 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
16.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 4 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
15.6%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 4
50
+7
15.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Roydell Williams for 7 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
15.6%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+10
15.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 10 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
15.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+19
15.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 19 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
15.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
15.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 2:0811% → 13%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
11.1%
Will Rogers sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the MisSt 13 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the MisSt 13Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+43
10.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 43 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
11.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 20 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
12.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for no gain to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+10
12.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 10 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
12.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 4 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
12.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire CalvinSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-9
11.9%
Will Rogers sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 19Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+37
13.2%
Brandon Ruiz 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11END OF HALF
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:5389% → 91%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
10.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
10.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for no gain to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
9.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 11 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
9.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
9.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Roydell WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+2
9.3%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
6.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 75 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:009% → 10%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
8.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
8.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
9.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
9.3%
Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Griffin, Lideatrick, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference 15 yards to the ALABAMA39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
9.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+11
9.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 11 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
9.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Christian FordSimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
9.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+17
9.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 17 yds to the Alab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
8.4%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 9Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
8.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q3 10:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
7.9%
Will Rogers sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 19 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Alab 19Similar
Q3 10:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+37
9.5%
Brandon Ruiz 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4194% → 94%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
6.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+3
6.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
6.2%
Bryce Young sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+6
6.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 6 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+9
6.0%
Bryce Young run for 9 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
5.9%
James Burnip punt for 29 yds, downed at the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5510% → 8%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
9.5%
Will Rogers sacked by Henry To'oTo'o for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+9
8.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-4
9.2%
Will Rogers sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 11
OWN 40
+2
8.4%
Archer Trafford punt for 46 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 2 yds to the Alab 16 JoJo Earle fumbled, recovered by AlabSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 2:2195% → 99%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
5.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 14 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
4.9%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
4.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Slade BoldenSimilar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+13
4.2%
Bryce Young run for 13 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
3.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
3.7%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahleel BillingsleySimilar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+51
1.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 51 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
0.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 3 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
0.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
0.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
0.7%
Archer Trafford punt for 34 yds, fair catch by JoJo Earle at the Alab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:5899% → 100%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
1.0%
Roydell Williams run for 7 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+11
1.0%
Roydell Williams run for 11 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
1.0%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-5
1.0%
Williams, Roydell rush for 2 yards to the MISSSTATE37, PENALTY ALABAMA illegal formation 5 yards to the MISSSTATE44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+9
0.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 9 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+22
0.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 22 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
0.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 13Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
0.8%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+12
0.8%
Bryce Young run for 12 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
0.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 3Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 2:370% → 0%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
0.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
0.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+4
0.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
0.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
0.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-2
0.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 12
OWN 43
-5
0.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 17
OWN 38
0
0.2%
Archer Trafford punt for 37 yds, downed at the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:35100% → 100%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
0.3%
Roydell Williams run for 29 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
0.3%
Roydell Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+5
0.2%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
0.2%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-2
0.2%
Trey Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+29
0.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 29 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21INT
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:410% → 0%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
0.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 2 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
0.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
0.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 24 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
0.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 2 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+7
0.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 7 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
0.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-29
0.1%
Will Rogers pass intercepted Jordan Battle return for 29 yds to the Alab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 28 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
0.2%
Trey Sanders run for 6 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+3
0.1%
Trey Sanders run for 3 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+20
0.1%
Trey Sanders run for 20 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:15
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q3 14:46
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 75 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
-7.2
TD · Q3 3:24
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 51 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
-2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com