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ALA

Alabama 38 at Texas A&M 41

TA&M
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+1.9TA&M 36.4%Will Reichard 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 17 · Q2 5:44
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:44 · Will Reichard 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 67Pregame prior−26.1Home team on offense+3.8Score differential+1.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:00: Devon Achane 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Seth Small Kick) — TA&M win probability +15.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:30: Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 29 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +18.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:00: Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 7 yds for a TD, (Bryce Young pass to Jameson Williams for Two-Point Conversion) — ALA win probability +38.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:00: Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 25 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +38.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Seth Small 28 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +29.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:35TA&M 4th & 3 at ALA 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:08TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 27, up 10
    Close callPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:15ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:44ALA 4th & 14 at TA&M 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−5.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:13ALA 4th & 9 at TA&M 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:05ALA 4th & 17 at TA&M 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−2.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    33.8%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:18TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 19, up 14
    Close callPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:59TA&M 4th & 21 at TA&M 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−6.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:04ALA 4th & 2 at TA&M 9, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.5%−1.9
    89% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−18.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:06TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−2.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:44ALA 4th & 4 at TA&M 4, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%−2.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−17.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:52TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−1.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:08ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−5.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:42ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:26TA&M Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:33TA&M Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:09TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:00TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:30ALA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:00ALA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    76.6%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:00TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:2014% → 15%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 5 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
13.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 16 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
14.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 11 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
14.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Malachi Moore) to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
14.4%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Demond Demas for 6 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-6
14.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 28Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+7
15.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Chase Lane for 7 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
15.4%
Seth Small 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:5385% → 84%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
15.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the Alab 40Similar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+3
15.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
15.3%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+10
15.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 10 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
15.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+9
16.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 9 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+3
16.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+15
16.6%
Bryce Young run for 15 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
16.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 7 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
16.9%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the TexAM 23Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+3
17.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 3 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
16.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Roydell Williams for 20 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0717% → 20%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
16.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Demond Demas for 14 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+34
17.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 34 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
19.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 27 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:0481% → 81%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
19.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 10 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
19.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
19.1%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
19.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 45 Brian Robinson Jr. fumbled, recovered by TexAM , return for 4 yds to the Alab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:3820% → 26%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
20.4%
Devon Achane run for 11 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
21.1%
Devon Achane run for 7 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+5
21.5%
Devon Achane run for 5 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
21.7%
Devon Achane run for 6 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+1
22.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the Alab 11Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+5
22.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 5 yds to the Alab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
25.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 6 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6INT
8 plays · 74 yds · 1:5475% → 74%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
25.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Tyreek Chappell) to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+40
25.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 40 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
24.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 16 yds to the TexAM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
24.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexAM 2Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
24.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexAM 1Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
26.2%
Bryce Young pass intercepted Demani Richardson return for 3 yds to the TexAM 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:1927% → 30%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
26.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for 5 yds to the TexAM 8Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+1
27.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the TexAM 9Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+11
27.1%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 11 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
28.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the TexAM 20Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
29.6%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 2 yds to the TexAM 22Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+5
29.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 5 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
29.6%
Nik Constantinou punt for 46 yds, fair catch by JoJo Earle at the Alab 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:4669% → 63%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
31.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 4 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-2
32.0%
Bryce Young sacked by Tyree Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+15
34.4%
Bryce Young run for 5 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jaylon Jones) to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
32.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 5 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
32.8%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-7
33.0%
Bryce Young sacked by Tyree Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
36.9%
James Burnip punt for 32 yds, downed at the TexAM 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
34.9%
Zach Calzada pass intercepted DeMarcco Hellams return for no gain to the TexAM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:1966% → 64%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
33.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 24 yds to the TexAM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
33.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexAM 12Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
33.2%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahleel BillingsleySimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 6
OPP 12
-8
34.4%
Bryce Young sacked by Leon O'Neal Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 20Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+38
36.4%
Will Reichard 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2936% → 53%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
36.4%
Devon Achane run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 23Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+33
36.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 33 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
40.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 13 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
41.1%
Ainias Smith run for 2 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
42.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+14
41.5%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 14 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
52.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for 15 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:4750% → 49%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
50.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 29 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
47.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 6 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
47.0%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
48.0%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahleel BillingsleySimilar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 4
OPP 40
-5
48.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Chris Owens) to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
50.6%
James Burnip punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4652% → 54%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
52.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the TexAM 10Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+3
53.5%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the TexAM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 4:4942% → 33%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 8 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
58.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 15 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
57.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
59.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+16
60.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 16 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-6
58.5%
Jameson Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 31 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexAM 41Similar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 16
OPP 41
-9
61.6%
Bryce Young sacked by Micheal Clemons for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 25
50
+8
64.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Roydell Williams for 8 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 17
OPP 42
0
65.5%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
66.8%
James Burnip punt for 29 yds, downed at the TexAM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15DOWNS TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3869% → 53%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
69.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 10Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+8
69.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 8 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+1
69.8%
Zach Calzada run for 1 yd to the TexAM 19Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
52.8%
Nik Constantinou punt blocked by Ja'Corey Brooks blocked by Ja'Corey Brooks for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2430% → 51%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
70.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 24 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
67.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+19
69.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 19 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
67.0%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+29
48.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 29 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:3161% → 59%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
61.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
61.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 4 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-10
65.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexAM 29Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
61.8%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
60.5%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 16
OWN 29
-5
59.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Edgerrin Cooper) to the TexAM 24Similar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 21
OWN 24
0
59.3%
Nik Constantinou punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:4844% → 48%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
56.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
55.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+11
56.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 11 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
56.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+13
56.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 13 yds to the TexAM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
56.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Javion Cohen) to the TexAM 22Similar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+2
58.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 2 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 20
0
58.8%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 13
OPP 20
+11
62.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 11 yds to the TexAM 9Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+26
52.2%
Will Reichard 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:5659% → 57%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.0%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
59.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
62.2%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
60.9%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
59.4%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+20
57.3%
Nik Constantinou punt for 48 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 20 yds to the Alab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 4:0644% → 49%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
55.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+2
52.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
54.6%
Bryce Young run for 5 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+18
53.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 18 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
51.6%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Slade BoldenSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+14
55.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 14 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
55.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
56.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+5
58.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the TexAM 12Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+9
58.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 9 yds to the TexAM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
56.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 4Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
56.7%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahleel BillingsleySimilar
Q4 8:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
59.3%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Slade BoldenSimilar
Q4 8:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
51.5%
Will Reichard 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4558% → 56%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
59.7%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
58.3%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-3
56.4%
Nik Constantinou punt for 50 yds , JoJo Earle returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 2:4045% → 90%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
55.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
54.3%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+19
55.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 19 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
49.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
49.8%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to JoJo EarleSimilar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+11
51.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 11 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
49.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+32
48.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 32 yds to the TexAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
10.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 7 yds for a TD, (Bryce Young pass to Jameson Williams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:5219% → 63%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
19.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 17 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
23.6%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
22.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 7 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+4
24.4%
Devon Achane run for 4 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
24.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 12 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
63.4%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 25 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4652% → 48%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 26Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
48.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahleel BillingsleySimilar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
50.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+4
52.4%
James Burnip punt for 43 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 4 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27END OF GAME
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:0056% → 96%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
56.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 30Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+17
54.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for 17 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
61.3%
Zach Calzada run for 11 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
63.0%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
62.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 12 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
65.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+15
66.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (DeMarcco Hellams) to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
66.3%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the Alab 11Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+28
96.3%
Seth Small 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:00
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 7 yds for a TD, (Bryce Young pass to Jameson Williams for Two-Point Conversion)
-38.7
TD · Q4 3:00
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 25 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)
+38.7
FG · Q4 0:00
Seth Small 28 yd FG GOOD
+29.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com