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ARK

Arkansas 51 at Ole Miss 52

MISS
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+10.4MISS 66.1%Dontario Drummond 67 Yd pass from MattCorral (Matt Corral Run for Two-PointConversion)AWAY 14 - HOME 14 · Q2 9:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:53 · Dontario Drummond 67 Yd pass from Matt Corral (Matt Corral Run for Two-Point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior+12.3Home team on offense+1.1Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 13:13: Snoop Conner 34 Yd Run (Caden Costa Kick) — MISS win probability +25.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:12: Treylon Burks 20 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick) — ARK win probability +33.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:01: Snoop Conner 1 Yd Run (Caden Costa Kick) — MISS win probability +27.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:22: KJ Jefferson 10 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick) — ARK win probability +40.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:07: Braylon Sanders 68 Yd pass from Matt Corral (Caden Costa Kick) — MISS win probability +37.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 9 of 9ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:23ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:12MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:50ARK 4th & 1 at MISS 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:41MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:26MISS 4th & 1 at ARK 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−1.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:00MISS 4th & 1 at ARK 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    56.0%−1.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−6.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:06MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:03ARK 4th & 2 at MISS 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−1.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:21ARK 4th & 9 at MISS 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:38MISS 4th & 13 at ARK 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−1.5
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:17MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.6%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:24ARK 4th & 5 at MISS 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−10.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:52MISS 4th & 4 at ARK 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−4.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:39ARK 4th & 17 at ARK 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:59MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 4:17ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:35MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:32ARK Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:53MISS Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    61.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:42MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:30ARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:34MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:42ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:13MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:12ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:01MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:22ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−3.4
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:07MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−1.7
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:00ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.9 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    39.4%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:3232% → 32%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.4%
Treylon Burks run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
68.4%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
68.3%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
68.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-1
68.0%
Trelon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
68.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+30
68.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 53 yds , Braylon Sanders returns for 30 yds to the Miss 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0368% → 68%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
68.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
68.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jahcour Pearson, broken up by LaDarrius BishopSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+3
68.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 3 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
67.9%
Mac Brown punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
17 plays · 82 yds · 6:4832% → 38%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
67.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 11 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
67.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 12 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
67.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+9
67.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
67.3%
Trelon Smith run for 8 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
67.2%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
67.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
66.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+8
67.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 8 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
66.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the Miss 23 Raheim Sanders fumbled, forced by Keidron Smith, recovered by Ark Raheim SandersSimilar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+2
66.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+1
66.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
65.9%
Smith, Trelon rush for 3 yards to the OLEMISS17, PENALTY ARKANSAS false start 5 yards to the OLEMISS25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+2
66.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+2
65.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trelon Smith for 2 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+16
65.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 16 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
61.6%
KJ Jefferson 5 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 5:3663% → 67%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
63.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Chase Rogers for 14 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
63.3%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
63.7%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-5
63.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Jeremy James) to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+3
62.9%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+8
62.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 8 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
63.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Chase Rogers for 8 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+1
63.0%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
62.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 1:26
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+7
62.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
63.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-2
63.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 0:24
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+13
62.1%
Matt Corral run for 13 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
62.8%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+6
62.7%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q2 14:32
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
61.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Ark 6Similar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+1
60.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
67.2%
Matt Corral 5 Yd Run (Caden Costa PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5536% → 46%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
64.0%
Trelon Smith run for 19 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
62.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+1
62.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
62.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
62.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+18
62.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tavius Robinson) to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
61.1%
Dominique Johnson run for 9 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+5
61.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 5 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
53.6%
Trelon Smith 14 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 0:2656% → 66%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
55.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 16 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
66.1%
Dontario Drummond 67 Yd pass from Matt Corral (Matt Corral Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:2536% → 38%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+21
63.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 21 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
61.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 12 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
61.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 9 yds to the Miss 27 Raheim Sanders fumbled, forced by Chance Campbell, recovered by Miss Chance CampbellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0866% → 64%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
65.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+2
65.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
64.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jadon Jackson, broken up by Montaric BrownSimilar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 10
OWN 27
-5
63.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (MoMo Sanogo) to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
63.5%
Mac Brown punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9MISSED FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:3738% → 39%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
62.3%
AJ Green run for 4 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+20
61.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamond Gordon) to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
60.0%
Malik Hornsby run for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 16
OWN 46
0
61.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 16
OWN 46
+14
62.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 14 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+7
61.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 7 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
58.7%
AJ Green run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
58.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to T.J. HammondsSimilar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-3
59.5%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+50
61.4%
Cam Little 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:2965% → 76%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
65.1%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon Sanders, broken up by Jalen CatalonSimilar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
64.4%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
65.1%
Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
66.3%
Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
66.8%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+26
66.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 26 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
67.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 6 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+6
67.6%
Jahcour Pearson run for 6 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
76.4%
Matt Corral 7 Yd Run (Caden Costa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11INT
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:3027% → 28%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
73.2%
Trelon Smith run for 11 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
73.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 6 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+10
72.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 10 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
72.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for 11 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
72.3%
KJ Jefferson pass intercepted, touchback. Keidron Smith return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:1575% → 79%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
74.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
74.2%
Matt Corral run for 8 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+33
75.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 33 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
77.3%
Matt Corral run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 12
OPP 32
-1
77.2%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 13
OPP 33
0
75.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon Sanders, broken up by Joe FouchaSimilar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+50
78.7%
Caden Costa 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5221% → 37%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
79.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 8 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
78.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+42
80.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 42 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
76.8%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+10
76.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
76.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 6 yds to the Miss 3Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
77.0%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Miss 3Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
62.9%
Trey Knox 3 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0668% → 67%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
68.6%
Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
68.8%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-1
67.2%
Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4439% → 44%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
61.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 15 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
61.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 3 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
61.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+2
62.3%
Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
56.0%
Cam Little 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:3761% → 82%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
61.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 19 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
63.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 9 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+51
81.7%
Snoop Conner 51 Yd Run (Caden Costa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4224% → 49%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
76.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 37 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+37
73.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 37 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
70.8%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-5
69.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Beaux Limmer) to the Miss 6Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
50.7%
KJ Jefferson 6 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1961% → 87%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.9%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
61.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
62.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 4 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-5
64.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+1
61.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 1 yd to the Miss 36Similar
Q3 0:03
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+13
59.4%
Matt Corral run for 13 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
64.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
64.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
64.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 13:52
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+11
61.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 11 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
87.3%
Snoop Conner 34 Yd Run (Caden Costa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:3819% → 52%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
81.3%
AJ Green run for 8 yds to the Ark 22 AJ Green fumbled, forced by Otis Reese, recovered by Ark Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+12
80.9%
Trelon Smith run for 12 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+46
81.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 46 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
48.1%
Treylon Burks 20 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0860% → 89%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.9%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
60.2%
Matt Corral run for 12 yds to the Miss 40 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dontario Drummond) to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
60.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon Sanders, broken up by Montaric BrownSimilar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
58.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 10 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
63.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+59
61.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 59 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.0%
Snoop Conner 1 Yd Run (Caden Costa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:1618% → 13%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
81.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
83.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
84.2%
De'Vion Warren run for 11 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
82.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to De'Vion Warren, broken up by Miles BattleSimilar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-7
83.4%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Chance Campbell for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 17
OWN 39
0
86.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 17
OWN 39
0
87.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3090% → 91%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
90.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+1
90.6%
Jahcour Pearson run for 1 yd to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-5
91.8%
Corral, Matt pass complete to Drummond, Dontario for 25 yards to the ARKANSAS45, PENALTY OLEMISS ineligible downfield on pass (Melton, Cedric) 5 yards to the OLEMISS25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
92.0%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+4
90.9%
Mac Brown punt for 44 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 4 yds to the Ark 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:3014% → 59%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
85.6%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
85.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
84.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 7
50
+13
84.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 13 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
83.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren Thompson, broken up by Miles BattleSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+16
84.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Miss 36 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Mark Robinson) to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
80.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 11 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
40.6%
KJ Jefferson 10 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0958% → 95%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.9%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
95.3%
Braylon Sanders 68 Yd pass from Matt Corral (Caden Costa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25END OF GAME
15 plays · 75 yds · 1:0111% → 36%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
89.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 21 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
86.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 3 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
86.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 3 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+5
88.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
88.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 15 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
85.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 7 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+12
85.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 12 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
84.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Treylon BurksSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
63.7%
Warren Thompson 9 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+41
TD · Q4 1:22
KJ Jefferson 10 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)
-40.3
TD · Q4 1:07
Braylon Sanders 68 Yd pass from Matt Corral (Caden Costa Kick)
+37.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com