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MSST

Mississippi State 26 at Texas A&M 22

TA&M
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGSAFETYEnd of GameFG-0.1TA&M 68.3%Seth Small 40 Yd Field GoalAWAY 10 - HOME 10 · Q2 14:16
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:16 · Seth Small 40 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior+16.2Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:16: Makai Polk 15 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick) — MSST win probability +13.4 pts (now 48%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:54: Makai Polk 20 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick) — MSST win probability +14.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:18: Zach Calzada 25 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — TA&M win probability +15.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. FG · Q4 5:39: Seth Small 44 Yd Field Goal — TA&M win probability +17.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. SAFETY · Q4 2:02: Nathan Pickering Safety — MSST win probability +12.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 11:49MSST 4th & 4 at TA&M 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:16TA&M 4th & 15 at MSST 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:50MSST 4th & 8 at TA&M 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:31TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:25MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:47TA&M 4th & 14 at MSST 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:19TA&M 4th & 18 at TA&M 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:46MSST 4th & 9 at TA&M 40, up 4
    Close callPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−0.8
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:12TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−3.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:11MSST 4th & 28 at TA&M 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−7.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−3.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:39TA&M 4th & 19 at MSST 27, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−6.7
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−12.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:36MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 48, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.6 ptsPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%−4.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:26TA&M Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:58MSST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:16MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:54MSST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:18TA&M Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:3672% → 72%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
71.8%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 23Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-12
71.7%
Zach Calzada pass intercepted Fred Peters return for 12 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2228% → 29%
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
71.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the TexAM 25Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
71.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the TexAM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
71.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the TexAM 6Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
71.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
71.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the TexAM 6Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
71.0%
Nolan McCord 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1371% → 72%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
71.0%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for no gain to the TexAM 35Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
70.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 9 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+44
71.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for 44 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
71.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the MisSt 11Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
72.0%
Jalen Wydermyer 11 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Seth Small Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1829% → 33%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
71.5%
Will Rogers sacked by DeMarvin Leal for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
71.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
71.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
70.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
70.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
70.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+11
70.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 11 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
70.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 22 yds to the TexAM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
69.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the TexAM 1Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
69.8%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 2Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 0
OPP 2
+1
69.8%
Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Polk, Makai, PENALTY TEXASAM face mask (Jones, Jaylon) 1 yards to the TEXASAM1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q1 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.7%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the TexAM 1Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.0%
Jaden Walley 1 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:2768% → 68%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
68.1%
Devon Achane run for 10 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
68.7%
Devon Achane run for 18 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
69.0%
Devon Achane run for 1 yd to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+20
68.8%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 5 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Emmanuel Forbes) to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
69.2%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
69.2%
Zach Calzada run for 4 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-9
68.4%
Zach Calzada sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 23 Zach Calzada fumbled, forced by Tyrus Wheat, recovered by TexAMSimilar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 15
OPP 23
+40
68.3%
Seth Small 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6MISSED FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:2032% → 33%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
68.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
50
+8
66.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 8 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+12
66.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 12 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
65.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
65.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
66.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon Johnson, broken up by DeMarvin LealSimilar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
66.9%
Nolan McCord 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1069% → 68%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
68.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 8 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
69.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
68.7%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias Smith, broken up by Jett JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
67.5%
Nik Constantinou punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5833% → 33%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
67.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+13
66.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
66.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
65.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+4
66.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+19
66.9%
Archer Trafford punt for 47 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 19 yds to the TEXASAM 34 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Block (Antonio Doyle Jr.) to the TexAM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 5:2569% → 69%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
68.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 9 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+2
69.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+38
68.6%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 38 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
71.1%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 31 Isaiah Spiller fumbled, recovered by TexAM Isaiah SpillerSimilar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+6
69.9%
Zach Calzada run for 6 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+9
70.1%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 9 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
70.9%
Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+3
70.9%
Ainias Smith run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-10
69.0%
Zach Calzada sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+37
68.9%
Seth Small 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2131% → 48%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
68.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 23 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
66.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 7 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+7
65.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 7 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
65.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 23 yds to the TexAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
51.9%
Makai Polk 15 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:4757% → 53%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
56.5%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 29 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-16
60.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the TexAM 38Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 26
OWN 38
+8
56.5%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Demond Demas for 8 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 18
OWN 46
0
54.1%
Zach Calzada pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 18
OWN 46
+5
53.3%
Nik Constantinou punt for 53 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 5 yds to the TEXASAM 49 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Andre White Jr.) to the MisSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0644% → 44%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
56.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
54.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Scott Lashley) to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 15
OWN 29
-3
56.1%
Will Rogers sacked by Micheal Clemons for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:0543% → 44%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
55.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 16 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
53.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 12 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
53.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 1 yd to the TexAM 40Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
53.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath, broken up by Tyreek ChappellSimilar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
53.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk, broken up by Leon O'Neal Jr.Similar
Q3 12:46
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
55.9%
Archer Trafford punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2856% → 53%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
56.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the TexAM 10Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 10
0
56.0%
Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the TexAM 10Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
54.3%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen WydermyerSimilar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 6
OWN 10
-5
53.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Demani Richardson) to the TexAM 5Similar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 11
OWN 5
0
53.1%
Nik Constantinou punt for 57 yds , Jaden Walley returns for no gain to the MisSt 5 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (DeShawn Page) to the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:1145% → 69%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
54.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire CalvinSimilar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+17
54.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 17 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
52.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
51.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 5 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
50.9%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexAM 44Similar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 5
OPP 44
+1
50.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 1 yd to the TexAM 43Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+12
49.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 12 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
48.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+8
46.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 8 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
45.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire CalvinSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
31.4%
Makai Polk 20 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2635% → 50%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.7%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 2 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
34.5%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
33.2%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 9 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
34.8%
Spiller, Isaiah rush for 5 yards to the TEXASAM44, PENALTY TEXASAM illegal motion (Demas, Demond) 5 yards to the TEXASAM34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+11
31.4%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 11 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+14
33.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 14 yds to the MisSt 41 Isaiah Spiller fumbled, forced by Emmanuel Forbes, recovered by TexAMSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
34.2%
Isaiah Spiller run for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+5
35.4%
Isaiah Spiller run for 5 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
34.9%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 6 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-3
34.1%
Devon Achane run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 25Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+25
49.8%
Zach Calzada 25 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17MISSED FG
22 plays · 43 yds · 7:5961% → 68%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
36.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
36.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-10
34.5%
Rogers, Will pass complete to Polk, Makai for 12 yards to the TEXASAM47, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Johnson, Kwatrivous) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
38.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+13
39.5%
Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Polk, Makai, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (White Jr., Andre) 13 yards to the MISSSTATE44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
33.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for no gain to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
33.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 10 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
31.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
30.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath, broken up by Tyreek ChappellSimilar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+11
31.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 11 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
28.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 5 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+10
26.8%
Will Rogers run for 10 yds to the TexAM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
26.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-1
25.5%
Will Rogers sacked by DeMarvin Leal for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 15Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 11
OPP 15
-10
27.3%
Rogers, Will pass sacked for loss of 2 yards to the TEXASAM17 (Johnson, Tyree), PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Cross, Charles) 10 yards to the TEXASAM25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 21
OPP 25
-5
27.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Charles Cross) to the TexAM 30Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 26
OPP 30
+3
27.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 23
OPP 27
-5
31.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Cole Smith) to the TexAM 32Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 28
OPP 32
+49
32.2%
Nolan McCord 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:2137% → 48%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+41
37.3%
Devon Achane run for 41 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
45.9%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+7
43.1%
Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 7 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
42.6%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Demond DemasSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-4
41.7%
Devon Achane run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 14
OPP 22
0
34.9%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 14
OPP 22
-5
30.8%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Derick Hunter Jr.) to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 19
OPP 27
+44
47.9%
Seth Small 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:5160% → 71%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
39.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Christian Ford, broken up by Leon O'Neal Jr.Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
38.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 14 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
30.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
28.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 3 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
27.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, broken up by Tyreek ChappellSimilar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
29.0%
Archer Trafford punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20SF
3 plays · -11 yds · 0:2544% → 29%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
43.6%
Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 10Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 11
OWN 10
0
41.1%
Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 11
OWN 10
0
28.9%
Nathan Pickering SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21Uncategorized
8 plays · 0 yds · 1:2490% → 95%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
9.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+6
9.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the TexAM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
7.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the TexAM 23Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-5
7.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 28Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 15
OPP 28
-5
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 5:39
Seth Small 44 Yd Field Goal
+17
TD · Q3 1:18
Zach Calzada 25 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+15.8
TD · Q3 6:54
Makai Polk 20 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick)
-14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com