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AUB

Auburn 24 at LSU 19

LSU
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:04 · TJ Finley pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Pregame prior+7.9Home team on offense+3.8Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score differential+1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:38: Cade York 26 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:53: Bo Nix pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 24 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +7.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 3:26: Cade York 51 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:16: Bo Nix run for 5 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +22.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:11: Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +44.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:58AUB 4th & 6 at LSU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:12AUB 4th & 7 at LSU 34, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.6%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:35LSU 4th & 6 at AUB 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:04AUB 4th & 5 at LSU 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    32.7%−0.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:38LSU 4th & 6 at AUB 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−6.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:53AUB 4th & 2 at LSU 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−0.8
    68% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:19LSU 4th & 5 at AUB 41, up 6
    Close callPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:51AUB 4th & 2 at LSU 48, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.0%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:14AUB 4th & 4 at LSU 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.1
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:00LSU 4th & 5 at AUB 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−8.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:08AUB 4th & 10 at LSU 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:59LSU 4th & 1 at AUB 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−2.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−11.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:26LSU 4th & 20 at AUB 33, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−3.7
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:19LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:52AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 29, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:24LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 47, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:55AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 13, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−3.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:06LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 49, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:09LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 46, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.1%−4.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:33LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:53AUB Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:16AUB Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:11AUB Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:0239% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.4%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
61.4%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
61.4%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+19
61.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 19 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
61.3%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+3
61.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+8
61.4%
Bo Nix run for 8 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
61.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 4:5561% → 65%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+55
61.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 55 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
61.9%
Armoni Goodwin run for 1 yd to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+7
62.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 7 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+7
61.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
62.2%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+9
61.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 9 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+13
62.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 13 yds to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-22
62.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 22 yards to the Aub 31 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LSU Max Johnson Max Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 0
OPP 31
+31
64.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 31 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 4:0836% → 35%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 7 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
63.6%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
64.1%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
64.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 10 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
63.6%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
64.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 8 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+8
63.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 8 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
63.7%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-1
63.0%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
63.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+51
65.2%
Anders Carlson 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:2566% → 67%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
65.7%
Max Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
66.5%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+15
65.8%
AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
66.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 15 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
67.0%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
67.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Corey Kiner for 6 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+3
66.9%
Max Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+5
66.5%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-7
67.6%
Max Johnson sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 17
OPP 25
0
67.4%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 17
OPP 25
+11
66.8%
Max Johnson run for 11 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+33
67.0%
Cade York 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:2532% → 32%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
68.5%
LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
68.4%
TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 35 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
67.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
67.1%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
67.6%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
68.4%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:1469% → 75%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
68.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 12 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
69.0%
Max Johnson sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 18
OWN 45
+3
68.7%
Armoni Goodwin run for 3 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+40
68.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 40 yds to the Aub 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
69.9%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Deion SmithSimilar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
69.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+3
69.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 3 yds to the Aub 3Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 1
OPP 3
-5
68.7%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Charles Turner) to the Aub 8Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
75.1%
Cade York 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3625% → 34%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 7 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
74.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 7 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
74.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to John Samuel ShenkerSimilar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
74.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 13 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
73.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+9
72.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 9 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
73.3%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
73.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+2
73.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 2 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+24
66.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 24 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 1:2369% → 71%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
69.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 12 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
69.3%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+25
68.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 25 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
72.2%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
72.1%
Max Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
71.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
70.6%
Avery Atkins punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Demetris Robertson at the Aub 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 3:0230% → 34%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
70.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
70.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+17
71.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 17 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
69.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 8 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+13
68.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 13 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
68.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 5 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
67.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 3 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
66.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Ja'Varrius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+10
68.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 10 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
66.1%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
66.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
67.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shaun ShiversSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+49
66.3%
Anders Carlson 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
65.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13FG
12 plays · 40 yds · 3:5567% → 72%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
66.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 8 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+5
67.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 5 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
68.4%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
68.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+10
67.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 10 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
68.5%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
68.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 8 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+9
67.4%
Max Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 10 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Romello Height) to the Aub 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
68.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q3 11:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
68.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Aub 5Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
67.6%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Deion SmithSimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
71.6%
Cade York 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:4131% → 30%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.9%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
68.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+33
69.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 33 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
64.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
64.4%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
66.9%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+52
69.8%
Anders Carlson 52 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jay WardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15FG
12 plays · 29 yds · 5:3673% → 80%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
73.2%
Corey Kiner run for 11 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
74.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 6 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+11
74.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 11 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
75.4%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+3
75.5%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
74.6%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
73.4%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
76.0%
Max Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-10
76.6%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 18
OPP 31
+2
75.3%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 16
OPP 29
-4
73.9%
Max Johnson sacked by Eku Leota for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 33 Max Johnson fumbled, forced by Eku Leota, recovered by LSUSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 20
OPP 33
+51
79.8%
Cade York 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0219% → 44%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 10 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+20
81.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 20 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
78.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+11
78.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 11 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
77.5%
Bo Nix run for 12 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
77.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 6 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+6
77.9%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
55.7%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4065% → 62%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.5%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
64.1%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 13:19
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
61.8%
Avery Atkins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Demetris Robertson at the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1837% → 33%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
64.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
64.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Ja'Varrius JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
67.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2467% → 67%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
66.8%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
66.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 5 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+10
65.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 10 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
69.4%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Trey PalmerSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
68.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 5 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
69.3%
Max Johnson run for no gain to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
66.5%
Avery Atkins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Demetris Robertson at the Aub 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2435% → 32%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
64.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
65.1%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
66.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
68.2%
Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3671% → 66%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
70.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 2 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+6
70.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
70.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-5
68.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 7:06
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
66.0%
Avery Atkins punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 3:4635% → 89%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
64.7%
Bo Nix run for 11 yds to the Aub 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
64.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Tank BigsbySimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
65.3%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+10
66.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 10 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
63.5%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+44
62.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 44 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
54.1%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
57.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Ze'Vian Capers for 7 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+6
58.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shaun Shivers for 6 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
56.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23INT
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:5523% → 18%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.2%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Trey PalmerSimilar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
22.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Deion Smith for 10 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
25.2%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Deion SmithSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
24.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
21.0%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 6
OWN 46
-7
17.7%
Max Johnson pass intercepted Bydarrius Knighten return for 7 yds to the Aub 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:4694% → 93%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
6.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 37Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 12
OWN 37
-1
6.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:11
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
-44.9
TD · Q4 14:16
Bo Nix run for 5 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
-22.2
TD · Q2 4:53
Bo Nix pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 24 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
-7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com