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MISS

Ole Miss 21 at Alabama 42

ALA
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:36 · Mac Brown punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense+34.4Pregame prior+9.0Score differential+29.1Blowout margin+14.6Garbage-time factor+9.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:20: Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 16 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +2.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:14: Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +4.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:55: Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +8.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:57: Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:23: Matt Corral pass complete to Chase Rogers for 2 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +0.3 pts (now 0%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:49MISS 4th & 3 at ALA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:05MISS 4th & 2 at ALA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:51MISS 4th & 1 at ALA 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:42MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:14ALA 4th & 1 at MISS 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    81.5%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    79.1%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:27MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:56ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:59MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:55ALA 4th & 1 at MISS 3, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.5%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    85.8%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:59ALA 4th & 8 at MISS 36, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:36MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 10, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:17ALA 4th & 1 at midfield, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 2:20ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:14ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:55ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:57ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:32ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:25MISS Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:47ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:43MISS Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:23MISS Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1DOWNS
19 plays · 59 yds · 6:0418% → 20%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
81.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 13 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
81.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 1 yd to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+5
81.4%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+4
81.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
81.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+1
80.9%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+1
80.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Alab 35Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+10
80.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 10 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
80.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 5 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-5
80.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Jadon Jackson) to the Alab 25Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-10
80.1%
Drummond, Dontario rush for 11 yards to the ALABAMA14, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Pearson, Jahcour) 10 yards to the ALABAMA35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 19
OPP 35
+18
80.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 18 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 1
OPP 17
-1
80.0%
Matt Corral run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 18Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+3
80.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
79.6%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
79.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+5
79.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 5 yds to the Alab 6Similar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
79.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Alab 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
13 plays · 94 yds · 6:2680% → 82%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
79.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 4 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+5
79.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+5
79.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
79.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 11 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
79.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 15 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
79.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+10
79.5%
Jase McClellan run for 10 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
79.5%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
79.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+7
79.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 7 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
79.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 12 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
79.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Miss 16Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
81.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 16 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:3319% → 20%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
80.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 14 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
80.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
80.3%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+6
80.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 6 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
80.3%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:2282% → 86%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
81.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 16 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
81.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
81.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
81.8%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahleel BillingsleySimilar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
81.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+7
81.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Miss 5Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.8%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to JoJo EarleSimilar
Q2 12:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
81.5%
Bryce Young run for 4 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 12:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:4216% → 15%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
84.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Nick Broeker) to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
84.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 13 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
84.2%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-4
84.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+4
84.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 4 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+2
85.2%
Mac Brown punt for 47 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 2 yds to the Alab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:2786% → 84%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
86.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+3
86.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 3 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+15
85.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 15 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
86.3%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
86.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jase McClellanSimilar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
84.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
84.3%
James Burnip punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Braylon Sanders at the Miss 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5015% → 15%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
84.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
84.9%
Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+7
85.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 7 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 1
OWN 31
-4
84.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:5986% → 94%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
85.8%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+11
85.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 11 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
85.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 4 yds to the Miss 8Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
86.0%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
86.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 3Similar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
94.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-9
93.3%
Matt Corral sacked by Phidarian Mathis for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 14 Matt Corral fumbled, forced by Phidarian Mathis, recovered by Alab Justin Eboigbe , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:3695% → 98%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
94.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
95.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 7Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+5
94.8%
Young, Bryce pass incomplete to Billingsley, Jahleel, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Jones, Jaylon) 5 yards to the OLEMISS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q2 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:522% → 2%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-10
97.6%
Corral, Matt pass incomplete, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Broeker, Nick) 10 yards to the OLEMISS22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-6
98.0%
Matt Corral sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 19
OWN 16
-2
98.0%
Matt Corral run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:1599% → 99%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+29
98.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 29 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
98.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 12 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
98.8%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+15
98.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 15 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
98.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 17 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:021% → 1%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.1%
Parrish Jr., Henry rush for 1 yard to the OLEMISS26, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (James, Jeremy) 10 yards to the OLEMISS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+17
99.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 17 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
99.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+5
99.2%
Corral, Matt pass complete to Jackson, Dannis for 2 yards to the OLEMISS47, PENALTY ALABAMA 12 men on the field 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
50
0
99.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
50
-2
99.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+14
99.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 14 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 3 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
99.2%
Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+6
99.2%
Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
99.2%
Corral, Matt pass incomplete to Sanders, Braylon, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Armour-Davis, Jalyn) 14 yards to the ALABAMA10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q3 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.2%
Matt Corral run for 10 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14INT
13 plays · 59 yds · 6:2599% → 100%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
99.1%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+21
99.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 21 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
99.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+5
99.5%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.5%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
99.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for no gain to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-2
99.6%
Bryce Young sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 36Similar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+19
99.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 19 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
99.6%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 18Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+3
99.7%
Bryce Young run for 3 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-5
99.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (JoJo Earle) to the Miss 20Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 13
OPP 20
-1
99.7%
Bryce Young pass intercepted Keidron Smith return for 1 yd to the Miss 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
99.7%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
99.8%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jadon JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+9
99.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Chase Rogers for 9 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q3 0:36
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
99.8%
Mac Brown punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 4:46100% → 100%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
99.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+9
99.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 9 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+10
99.8%
Young, Bryce pass sacked for loss of 6 yards to the ALABAMA33 (Gordon, Jamond), PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Reese, Otis) 10 yards to the ALABAMA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
99.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 21 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+6
99.8%
Roydell Williams run for 6 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
99.8%
Bryce Young sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 15
OPP 24
-4
99.8%
Bryce Young sacked by Chance Campbell for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 19
OPP 28
+26
99.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 26 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+42
99.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Chase Rogers for 42 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
99.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 9 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+4
99.9%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
99.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 14 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:10100% → 100%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 11 yds to the Alab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+20
99.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 20 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
99.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 1
50
0
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
11 plays · 50 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
50
+10
100.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
100.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 11 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
100.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+1
100.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+5
100.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
100.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
100.0%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
100.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Snoop ConnerSimilar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+13
100.0%
Corral, Matt pass incomplete to Sanders, Braylon, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Jobe, Josh) 13 yards to the ALABAMA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q4 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Chase Rogers for 2 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20END OF GAME
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+9
99.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:55
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q2 12:14
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q2 0:57
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com