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LSU

LSU 28 at Mississippi State 25

MSST
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:32 · Avery Atkins punt for 44 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense−17.4Score differential−7.6Garbage-time factor−5.7Pregame prior−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:22: Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 64 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +11.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:35: Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 58 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +13.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:26: Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 29 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK) — MSST win probability +14.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:32: Max Johnson pass complete to Kole Taylor for 41 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:53: Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 16 yds for a TD, (Will Rogers pass to Malik Heath for Two-Point Conversion) — MSST win probability +31.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 11:10LSU 4th & 1 at MSST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:37MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:53LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:38LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:19MSST 4th & 5 at LSU 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−6.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:59MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:41LSU 4th & 2 at MSST 41, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    56.3%−1.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:55MSST 4th & 4 at LSU 15, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.9%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−7.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:32LSU 4th & 2 at MSST 44, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.9%−3.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:45MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:36LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:04LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 14:22LSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:35LSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:26MSST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:32LSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:48MSST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:53MSST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    12.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:1242% → 43%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
42.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 13 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
42.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 14 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
42.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 5 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+1
42.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+7
43.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 7 yds Malik Heath fumbled, recovered by LSU , return for 35 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:1358% → 59%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
42.5%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
42.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 9 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
42.7%
Max Johnson run for no gain to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+3
43.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
42.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+2
42.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
42.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 1 yd to the MisSt 11Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
43.0%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+11
41.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 11 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2342% → 42%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
41.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
41.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
41.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+5
41.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
41.5%
Archer Trafford punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3259% → 59%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
41.0%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+12
41.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Deion Smith for 12 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
40.7%
Armoni Goodwin run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
40.5%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
40.9%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
41.3%
Avery Atkins punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5INT
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:0741% → 43%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
41.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 3 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+1
41.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+10
41.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 10 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
42.3%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LSU 44Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 5
OPP 44
+4
42.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+10
42.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 10 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
42.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
42.5%
Will Rogers pass intercepted Cordale Flott return for no gain to the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:4260% → 60%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
40.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+18
40.0%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 18 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
39.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
38.7%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
38.8%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:38
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+5
39.6%
Avery Atkins punt for 52 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 5 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FG
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:1140% → 46%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
40.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
40.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+22
39.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 22 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
41.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Will Rogers for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+8
40.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 8 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+19
40.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 19 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
42.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 13 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
42.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 1
OPP 13
0
43.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+3
42.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
43.5%
Will Rogers run for 4 yds to the LSU 6Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
43.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds to the LSU 2Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
42.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 5Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
45.9%
Nolan McCord 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0257% → 59%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
42.9%
Max Johnson sacked by Randy Charlton for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 16Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+7
43.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Deion Smith for 7 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+20
44.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 20 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
41.2%
Max Johnson pass intercepted Emmanuel Forbes return for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:0144% → 42%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
43.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
44.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
44.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
44.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
43.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+24
42.4%
Archer Trafford punt for 53 yds , Trey Palmer returns for 24 yds to the LSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:0459% → 60%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
41.3%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
41.1%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+4
40.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 4 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
39.3%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-6
39.3%
Max Johnson sacked by Aaron Odom for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+14
41.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 14 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
39.9%
Avery Atkins punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:3043% → 46%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
43.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+7
43.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
43.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
45.7%
Will Rogers sacked by Ali Gaye for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2859% → 71%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
41.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 11 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
29.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 64 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13MISSED FG
17 plays · 60 yds · 5:1530% → 27%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
29.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
29.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
29.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
30.1%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 5
OWN 41
-5
31.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
29.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
29.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+8
29.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
30.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 15 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
32.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+7
30.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 7 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+5
28.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
30.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 4
OPP 15
0
30.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 4
OPP 15
0
28.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
26.7%
Nolan McCord 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 4:1374% → 76%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
26.1%
Armoni Goodwin run for 9 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+7
25.2%
Corey Kiner run for 7 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
24.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Armoni Goodwin for 2 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+10
23.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 10 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
22.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+5
23.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 5 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+5
22.5%
Max Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
23.8%
Avery Atkins punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3523% → 21%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
23.0%
Will Rogers run for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
22.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
21.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+2
20.9%
Archer Trafford punt for 40 yds , Trey Palmer returns for 2 yds to the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
1 play · 58 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
7.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 58 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0212% → 26%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
12.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
12.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+1
12.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
11.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+22
10.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 22 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
11.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+29
25.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 29 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2880% → 96%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.8%
Armoni Goodwin run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
19.7%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
18.1%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
17.5%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
17.2%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+15
17.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
15.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 4 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+3
15.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+41
3.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kole Taylor for 41 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:385% → 12%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
5.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
5.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 9 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
5.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 11 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
5.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+4
5.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+17
5.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 17 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
5.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 8 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+9
5.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
5.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the LSU 3Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
5.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the LSU 2Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 2 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-5
12.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0490% → 92%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
9.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
8.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
8.5%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+2
8.3%
Avery Atkins punt for 39 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 2 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
17 plays · 66 yds · 3:3710% → 41%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
9.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 1 yd to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
9.2%
Will Rogers run for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+5
10.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 5 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
9.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+12
8.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 12 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+7
7.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
7.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 3
OPP 33
-5
9.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+10
7.4%
Will Rogers run for 10 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
9.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+5
7.1%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+4
7.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
7.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
6.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
37.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 16 yds for a TD, (Will Rogers pass to Malik Heath for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+2
41.2%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Holding (2 Yards) to the LSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1091% → 94%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
8.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-1
6.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 43
-1
6.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:53
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 16 yds for a TD, (Will Rogers pass to Malik Heath for Two-Point Conversion)
+31
TD · Q3 0:26
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 29 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)
+14.6
TD · Q3 3:35
Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 58 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com