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MSST

Mississippi State 29 at Memphis 31

MEM
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:26 · Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie Lewis, broken up by Martin Emerson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense+1.8Pregame prior−9.3Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:20: Calvin Austin III 21 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Joe Doyle Kick) — MEM win probability +19.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q4 7:48: Calvin Austin III 25 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Joe Doyle Kick) — MEM win probability +33.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:36: Calvin Austin III 94 Yd Punt Return (Joe Doyle Kick) — MEM win probability +25.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:03: Malik Heath 9 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MSST win probability +18.6 pts (now 25%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:32: Makai Polk 36 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — MSST win probability +23.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q2 14:26MEM 4th & 3 at MSST 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    48.9%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−3.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:48MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:06MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:17MSST 4th & 16 at MSST 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−1.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:38MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:17MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.1%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:19MSST 4th & 2 at MEM 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−8.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:39MEM 4th & 8 at MSST 32, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:44MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−2.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:56MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 40, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:48MSST 4th & 9 at MEM 40, up 3
    Close callPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−1.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:26MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:06MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−6.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:36MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 47, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%−2.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:02MEM 4th & 6 at MSST 33, up 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.3%−0.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:02MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:58MSST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:07MSST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:20MEM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:48MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:36MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:03MSST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:32MSST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.4%−3.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    28.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4662% → 61%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
37.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 4 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+14
37.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 14 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
38.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 3
OPP 47
-6
38.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Jaden Walley) to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+8
38.3%
Will Rogers run for 8 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+49
39.5%
Sanchez Blake Jr. 49 Yd Fumble Return (Joe Doyle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2FG
20 plays · 54 yds · 8:3660% → 57%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
40.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
40.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
40.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
40.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin Williams, broken up by Rodney OwensSimilar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+12
41.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 12 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
41.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 2 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+9
41.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 9 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
41.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
42.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the Memph 32Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+9
43.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
42.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+4
43.1%
J.J. Jernighan run for 4 yds to the Memph 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
43.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q1 4:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
43.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 4 yds to the Memph 6Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 0
OPP 6
-5
44.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Memph 11Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
45.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk, broken up by Quindell JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 0
OPP 11
-10
45.5%
McCord, Nolan field goal attempt from 29 GOOD, clock 03:25, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Jackson, Grant) 10 yards to the MEMPHIS21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 0
OPP 21
+39
43.3%
Nolan McCord 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:4644% → 45%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
43.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+23
43.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 23 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
44.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 7 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+4
44.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
45.1%
Gabriel Rogers run for no gain to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+10
45.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 10 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
45.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-15
46.3%
Clark, Rodrigues rush for 6 yards to the MISSSTATE20, PENALTY MEMPHIS personal foul (Ellis, Isaac) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 19
OPP 41
+16
45.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 16 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
46.1%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 14:26
4TH & 3
OPP 25
0
45.4%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie Lewis, broken up by Martin EmersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2155% → 61%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
45.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+41
46.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 41 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
43.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 5 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
43.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 3 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
44.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
43.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 1
OPP 12
0
44.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for no gain to the Memph 12Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+9
44.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
38.6%
Dillon Johnson 3 Yd Run (Nolan McCord Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0442% → 41%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
41.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
41.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 7 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
41.3%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
40.8%
Joe Doyle punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:3759% → 70%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
41.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+18
41.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Sylvonta Oliver) to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down. Sylvonta Oliver ejected for targeting.Similar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
40.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 24 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
38.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+7
37.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
37.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
37.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+14
39.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 14 yds to the Memph 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
29.7%
Jaden Walley 6 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:5332% → 31%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
31.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 14 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
32.8%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
32.6%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Memph 39Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
31.8%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
31.0%
Joe Doyle punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:3670% → 68%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
30.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 9 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-10
29.4%
Rogers, Will pass complete to Calvin, Jamire for 9 yards to the MEMPHIS45, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Lashley, Scott) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-9
30.2%
Will Rogers sacked by Maurice White for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 20
OWN 27
+4
31.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
31.9%
Archer Trafford punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3630% → 28%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
29.8%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Sean Dykes, broken up by Jaden CrumedySimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
30.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 4 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
29.2%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 6
OWN 26
-5
28.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 11
OWN 21
+1
28.3%
Joe Doyle punt for 44 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
29.4%
Will Rogers sacked by Jaylon Allen and John Tate IV for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11INT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3929% → 28%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.1%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Brandon ThomasSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
28.9%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Gabriel RogersSimilar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
28.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 9 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 14:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-21
28.4%
Seth Henigan pass intercepted Emmanuel Forbes return for 21 yds to the Memph 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:4873% → 72%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
27.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 9 yds to the Memph 5Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+2
27.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
26.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 7Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
26.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 5 yds to the Memph 2Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
26.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk, broken up by Greg RubinSimilar
Q3 11:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
27.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin Williams, broken up by Quindell JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
13 plays · 98 yds · 4:5027% → 49%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
27.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 8 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+16
27.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 16 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
27.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 8 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+1
28.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+19
27.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 19 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
29.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 7 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+5
29.5%
Henigan, Seth pass pass intercepted by Emerson, Martin at the MISSSTATE11, Emerson, Martin return 20 yards to the MISSSTATE31, PENALTY MISSSTATE substitution infraction 5 yards to the MISSSTATE34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
30.6%
Seth Henigan sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 13
OPP 37
0
28.5%
Seth Henigan run for no gain to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 13
OPP 37
+5
27.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 5 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+11
26.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 11 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
28.8%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
48.5%
Calvin Austin III 21 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Joe Doyle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 22 yds · 3:2460% → 58%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
40.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 7 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
38.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
38.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire CalvinSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-5
39.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Scott Lashley) to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+10
39.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 10 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+5
38.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 5 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
37.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
37.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire CalvinSimilar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
38.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin, broken up by Greg RubinSimilar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
41.7%
Archer Trafford punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3644% → 44%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
43.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 13 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
44.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
44.4%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
46.4%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Gabriel RogersSimilar
Q3 0:56
4TH & 3
OWN 40
-4
43.5%
Joe Doyle punt for 48 yds , Jaden Walley returns for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:0058% → 62%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
41.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+7
40.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 7 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
40.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 2 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+20
40.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 10 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Holding (John Tate IV) to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
37.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+12
36.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 12 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
33.9%
J.J. Jernighan run for 1 yd to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
33.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to J.J. JernighanSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
34.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath, broken up by John Tate IVSimilar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
38.0%
Archer Trafford punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1342% → 37%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
42.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
42.6%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
40.0%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
37.2%
Joe Doyle punt for 65 yds, downed at the MisSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1065% → 62%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
35.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the MisSt 16Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-8
35.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Cole Smith) to the MisSt 8Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+6
36.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 6 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 11
OWN 14
0
36.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+13
37.7%
Archer Trafford punt for 35 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for 13 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
4 plays · 36 yds · 1:1047% → 80%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
46.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+2
49.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+6
47.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
80.3%
Calvin Austin III 25 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Joe Doyle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT TD
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0229% → 8%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
67.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 10 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
67.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
66.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
67.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, broken up by Sanchez Blake Jr.Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+94
92.4%
Calvin Austin III 94 Yd Punt Return (Joe Doyle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:228% → 17%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
91.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 14 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
91.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
91.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 5 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+10
92.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 10 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
93.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 15 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
74.6%
Malik Heath 9 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-10
73.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kameron Jones) to the Memph 13Similar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 20
OWN 35
-5
83.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22FG
9 plays · 4 yds · 0:5391% → 95%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
90.9%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+3
91.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-5
91.4%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Dylan Parham) to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+5
90.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+51
95.2%
Joe Doyle 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:236% → 30%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
93.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 29 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
70.5%
Makai Polk 36 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:0787% → 92%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
86.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 15
OPP 49
-5
90.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 20
OWN 46
-5
91.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:48
Calvin Austin III 25 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Joe Doyle Kick)
+33.2
TD · Q4 5:36
Calvin Austin III 94 Yd Punt Return (Joe Doyle Kick)
+25
TD · Q4 1:32
Makai Polk 36 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-23.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com