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UTC

Chattanooga 23 at Kentucky 28

UK
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadUTC aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreUTC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:44 · Jason Pierce punt for 41 yds , Wan'Dale Robinson returns for 4 yds to the Chatt 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior+38.0Home team on offense+3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:56: Cole Copeland pass complete to Reginald Henderson for 12 yds for a TD (Aaron Sears KICK) — UTC win probability +0.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: UTC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 10:43: Aaron Sears 43 yd FG GOOD — UTC win probability +2.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q4 13:27: Aaron Sears 30 yd FG GOOD — UTC win probability +13.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UTC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:18: Will Levis pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 31 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +12.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:20: Cole Copeland run for 2 yds for a TD (Aaron Sears KICK) — UTC win probability +15.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UTC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 2:57UK 4th & 9 at UK 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:20UTC 4th & 7 at UTC 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:22UTC 4th & 14 at UTC 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:47UTC 4th & 5 at UK 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:38UK 4th & 2 at UK 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:44UTC 4th & 7 at UTC 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:39UK 4th & 5 at UTC 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:52UTC 4th & 2 at UTC 46, down 4
    Close callPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:42UK 4th & 3 at UK 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:43UTC 4th & 4 at UK 26, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.7%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:35UK 4th & 4 at UK 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:14UTC 4th & 4 at UTC 46, down 1
    Close callPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:27UTC 4th & 6 at UK 13, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−13.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UTC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:43UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:56UTC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:29UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:18UK Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:20UTC Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:1198% → 98%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
98.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 7 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+18
98.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 18 yds to the Chatt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
98.2%
Michael Drennen II run for 1 yd to the Chatt 44Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-5
98.2%
PENALTY UKY False Start (Magwood,Chauncey) 5 yards from CHA44 to CHA49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+9
98.2%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 9 yds to the Chatt 40Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+8
98.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 8 yds to the Chatt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
98.2%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale RobinsonSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
98.2%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 11 yds to the Chatt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
98.2%
Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 10 yds to the Chatt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
97.8%
Josh Ali run for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:472% → 3%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.8%
Ailym Ford run for 4 yds to the Chatt 29Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
97.8%
Ailym Ford run for 5 yds to the Chatt 34Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+48
97.8%
Ailym Ford run for 48 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
97.7%
Tyrell Price run for 9 yds to the Kent 9Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+3
97.7%
Tyrell Price run for 3 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+12
96.9%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Reginald Henderson for 12 yds for a TD (Aaron Sears KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 3:5497% → 96%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
97.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Justin Rigg for 6 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
97.1%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
97.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 5 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
97.1%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+10
97.1%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 10 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
97.1%
PENALTY UKY False Start (Cox,Eli) 5 yards from UKY48 to UKY43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+6
97.1%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 6 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
97.1%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale RobinsonSimilar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
97.1%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Izayah CummingsSimilar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
96.3%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brandon Dowdell at the Chatt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:374% → 4%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
96.3%
Cole Copeland pass incomplete to Reginald HendersonSimilar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
96.3%
Ailym Ford run for 2 yds to the Chatt 17Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+1
96.4%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Ailym Ford for 1 yd to the Chatt 18Similar
Q1 1:20
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
96.0%
Jason Pierce punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Wan'Dale Robinson at the Kent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:5196% → 97%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
96.1%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 9 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-10
96.2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (Austin Dotson) to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
95.8%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 5 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
95.9%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale RobinsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+5
95.8%
Will Levis run for 5 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+39
95.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 39 yds to the Chatt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
96.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 20 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 2:074% → 4%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
96.2%
Ailym Ford run for 1 yd to the Chatt 36Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
96.2%
Ailym Ford run for 5 yds to the Chatt 41Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-5
96.1%
PENALTY CHA False Start (Bethea,Brock) 5 yards from CHA41 to CHA36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-5
96.3%
PENALTY CHA False Start (Summers,Tyrin) 5 yards from CHA36 to CHA31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
96.4%
Cole Copeland pass incomplete to Reginald HendersonSimilar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+55
96.1%
Jason Pierce punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENTUCKY 24 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trevin Wallace) to the Kent 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7INT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:5996% → 96%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
96.0%
PENALTY UKY False Start (Bates,Brenden) 5 yards from UKY14 to UKY09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+1
96.0%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 1 yd to the Kent 8Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 16
OWN 8
0
95.9%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale RobinsonSimilar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 16
OWN 8
0
95.7%
Will Levis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 8FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:365% → 5%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
95.2%
Ailym Ford run for 4 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+7
95.4%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Reginald Henderson for 7 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+2
95.4%
Ailym Ford run for 2 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
94.9%
Aaron Sears 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0295% → 94%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
94.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 36Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+8
94.7%
Will Levis pass complete to Mike Drennen for 8 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+1
94.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
94.3%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:545% → 5%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
94.9%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Reginald Henderson for 3 yds to the Chatt 9Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 7
OWN 9
0
94.9%
Cole Copeland pass incomplete to Reginald HendersonSimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 7
OWN 9
0
95.1%
Cole Copeland pass incomplete to Kanore McKinnonSimilar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 7
OWN 9
+4
95.0%
Jason Pierce punt for 41 yds , Wan'Dale Robinson returns for 4 yds to the Chatt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0595% → 94%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
94.5%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
94.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 11 yds to the Chatt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
94.7%
Will Levis pass complete to Brenden Bates for 4 yds to the Chatt 31Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+1
94.7%
Will Levis pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 1 yd to the Chatt 30Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
94.5%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 5
OPP 30
-8
93.6%
Will Levis sacked by Ty Boeck for a loss of 8 yards to the Chatt 38 Will Levis fumbled, recovered by Chatt Jay Person , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:476% → 7%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.6%
Cole Copeland pass incomplete to Jamoi MayesSimilar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
93.7%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Tyler Smith for 2 yds to the Chatt 40Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+6
93.8%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Reginald Henderson for 6 yds to the Chatt 46Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
92.9%
Jason Pierce punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 1:1092% → 92%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
92.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Justin Rigg for 8 yds to the Kent 11Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+12
92.5%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 12 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
92.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 12 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
92.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 7 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
93.2%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Izayah CummingsSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
92.9%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
92.3%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
93.1%
Tyrell Price run for 1 yd to the Chatt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 15FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:179% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.4%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Reginald Henderson for 6 yds to the Chatt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
91.0%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Chatt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 47
0
90.3%
Cole Copeland pass incomplete to Tyron ArnettSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+1
90.4%
Ailym Ford run for 1 yd to the Chatt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+8
90.5%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Ailym Ford for 8 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
90.2%
Ailym Ford run for 12 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
89.8%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 6 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
89.7%
Cole Copeland pass incomplete to Tyrell PriceSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
90.2%
Cole Copeland pass incomplete to Reginald HendersonSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
90.8%
Copeland,Cole pass incomplete to Henderson,Reginald broken up by Corker,Yusuf PENALTY UKY Illegal Substitution 5 yards from CHA42 to CHA47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
87.9%
Aaron Sears 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4789% → 87%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
88.5%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
89.0%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
88.7%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
89.5%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 4 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+2
89.3%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
86.5%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:2114% → 16%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.4%
Cole Copeland pass incomplete to KeShawn ToneySimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
86.6%
Ailym Ford run for 6 yds to the Chatt 26Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+4
86.8%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 4 yds to the Chatt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
86.2%
Ailym Ford run for 10 yds to the Chatt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
85.2%
Cole Copeland pass incomplete to Reginald HendersonSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
85.6%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Ailym Ford for 6 yds to the Chatt 46Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
82.6%
Cole Copeland pass incomplete to KeShawn ToneySimilar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
83.8%
Jason Pierce punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18INT
6 plays · 34 yds · 3:1185% → 84%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
84.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+4
84.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Justin Rigg for 4 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
85.0%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+2
84.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Brenden Bates for 2 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+23
84.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 23 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
84.2%
Will Levis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 19FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:3619% → 36%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
81.0%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Reginald Henderson for 7 yds to the Chatt 41Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+14
77.8%
Ailym Ford run for 14 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
77.2%
PENALTY CHA False Start (Truett,Colin) 5 yards from UKY45 to UKY50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
50
+33
78.7%
Tyrell Price run for 33 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
76.0%
Cole Copeland pass incomplete to Chris JamesSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
76.1%
PENALTY UKY Offside (McCall,Marquan) 5 yards from UKY17 to UKY12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+1
76.0%
Ailym Ford run for 1 yd to the Kent 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
77.3%
Cole Copeland pass incomplete to Reginald HendersonSimilar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
64.0%
Aaron Sears 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:0371% → 90%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
71.1%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
71.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+21
70.8%
Will Levis run for 21 yds to the Chatt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
75.5%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the Chatt 47Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
75.5%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Josh AliSimilar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+15
74.1%
Levis,Will pass incomplete to Robinson,Wan'Dale PENALTY CHA Pass Interference (Lowery III,Rueben) 15 yards from CHA47 to CHA32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
77.4%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 1 yd to the Chatt 31Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+31
89.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 31 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 21INT TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:3815% → 5%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.1%
Ailym Ford run for 7 yds to the Chatt 32Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
83.3%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Chris James for 10 yds to the Chatt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+25
83.5%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Kanore McKinnon for 25 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
80.3%
Copeland,Cole rush for 2 yards gain to the UKY31, out of bounds PENALTY CHA Holding (Truett,Colin) 10 yards from UKY33 to UKY43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+8
83.2%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Reginald Henderson for 8 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 12
OPP 35
0
95.4%
Cole Copeland pass intercepted for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 22TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:204% → 18%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Tyrell Price run for no gain to the Chatt 25Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.4%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Chris James for 6 yds to the Chatt 31Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
96.1%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 9 yds to the Chatt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
95.9%
Tyrell Price run for 1 yd to the Chatt 41Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+12
95.9%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Reginald Henderson for 12 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
95.7%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Reginald Henderson for 14 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
95.3%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Chris James for 5 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+1
95.2%
Ailym Ford run for 1 yd to the Kent 29Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+11
95.7%
Cole Copeland pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 11 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
95.1%
Ailym Ford run for 4 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+6
95.1%
Ailym Ford run for 6 yds to the Kent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
95.1%
Ailym Ford run for 7 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.1%
Ailym Ford run for 1 yd to the Kent 2Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.7%
Cole Copeland run for 2 yds for a TD (Aaron Sears KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:1995% → 93%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
94.5%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 42Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
92.6%
run for no gain to the Kent 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:20
Cole Copeland run for 2 yds for a TD (Aaron Sears KICK)
-15.2
FG · Q4 13:27
Aaron Sears 30 yd FG GOOD
-13.3
TD · Q4 10:18
Will Levis pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 31 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com