2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:42 · Kai Kroeger punt for 42 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for no gain to the Geo 38 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Geo 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:00: JT Daniels pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 43 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:06: JT Daniels pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 38 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +1.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- SAFETY · Q2 0:24: Team Safety — UGA win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:01: Jack Podlesny 36 Yd Field Goal — UGA win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:57: Zamir White run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3SC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 8:51SC 4th & 12 at UGA 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.121% to convertField goalTheir call3.9%77% to makePunt3.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 3:57SC 4th & 6 at SC 39, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.4%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%average punt
- Q1 1:34SC 4th & 7 at UGA 9, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.7%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call4.7%89% to makePunt4.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 13:09UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 43, up 8Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snapGo for it94.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 10:42SC 4th & 9 at SC 38, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.3%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q2 2:45SC 4th & 24 at SC 29, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%average punt
- Q2 0:32UGA 4th & 7 at SC 43, up 15Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.7%−<0.137% to convertField goal95.7%28% to makePuntTheir call95.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 4:18SC 4th & 8 at SC 45, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 0:40SC 4th & 6 at SC 32, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 8:17UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 31, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 1:21SC 4th & 9 at UGA 9, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.225% to convertField goal0.4%89% to makePunt0.0%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SC made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 12:21UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:00UGA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:06UGA Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:57UGA Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:37UGA Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:55SC Touchdown, down 28 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2698% → 98%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
97.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Brock Bowers for 21 yds to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+11
97.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 11 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+12
97.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 12 yds to the SCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2FG9 plays · 56 yds · 3:193% → 3%
Q1 11:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
97.4%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Dylan Wonnum) to the SCaro 22Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+61
97.4%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Josh Vann for 61 yds to the Geo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-2
97.2%
Zeb Noland sacked by Adam Anderson for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4597% → 97%
Q1 8:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
96.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 14 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+11
96.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Brock Bowers for 11 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
97.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 43 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 16 yds · 2:593% → 3%
Q1 5:16
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+4
96.9%
Luke Doty pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 4 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+4
96.9%
Luke Doty pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 4 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
96.9%
Kai Kroeger punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5INT2 plays · 13 yds · 0:3797% → 97%
SCDrive 6FG6 plays · 3 yds · 1:303% → 4%
Q1 2:39
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-5
96.5%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the Geo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 3:0196% → 96%
Q2 13:49
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-7
96.2%
JT Daniels sacked by Jabari Ellis and Kingsley Enagbare for a loss of 7 yards to the Geo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:184% → 4%
Q2 11:50
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+16
96.0%
Luke Doty pass complete to Josh Vann for 31 yds to the GEORGIA 48 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Josh Vann) to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
95.9%
Kai Kroeger punt for 42 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for no gain to the Geo 38 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Geo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9TD12 plays · 90 yds · 4:2496% → 97%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
95.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to James Cook for 12 yds to the Geo 22 GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Geo 12Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+8
95.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 8 yds to the Geo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+17
95.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 17 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+8
95.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 8 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
95.3%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jahmar Brown) to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
96.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 38 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10PUNT12 plays · 4 yds · 3:034% → 3%
Q2 4:53
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
96.5%
Luke Doty pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 7 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
96.4%
Luke Doty pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 16 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 14
OWN 39
-10
96.5%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Eric Douglas) to the SCaro 29Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 24
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Kai Kroeger punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0697% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12SF1 play · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13END OF HALF8 plays · 39 yds · 0:1497% → 99%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
97.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Brock Bowers for 12 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
97.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 18 yds to the SCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
97.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 9 yds to the SCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14INT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:272% → 2%
UGADrive 15TD2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0999% → 100%
SCDrive 16FUMBLE9 plays · 22 yds · 3:141% → 0%
Q3 13:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
99.1%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Jovaughn Gwyn) to the SCaro 27Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
99.7%
Luke Doty pass complete to Kevin Harris for 8 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.7%
Luke Doty sacked by Nolan Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the Geo 47 Luke Doty fumbled, forced by Nolan Smith, recovered by Geo Quay Walker , return for 0 yards , return for 1 yd to the Geo 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD9 plays · 53 yds · 3:02100% → 100%
Q3 9:40
3RD & 7
50
+9
99.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 9 yds to the SCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
99.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 19 yds to the SCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+5
99.7%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to James Cook for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 2:480% → 0%
UGADrive 19INT5 plays · 34 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
SCDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:160% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21FUMBLE7 plays · 34 yds · 2:39100% → 100%
Q4 13:27
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+8
99.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 8 yds to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
99.9%
Kendall Milton run for 8 yds to the Geo 46 Kendall Milton fumbled, forced by R.J. Roderick, recovered by SCaro O'Donnell Fortune , return for 8 yds to the Geo 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22TD6 plays · 46 yds · 1:550% → 0%
UGADrive 23PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:06
JT Daniels pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 38 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+1.5
FG · Q2 0:01
Jack Podlesny 36 Yd Field Goal
+1.4
TD · Q3 13:57
Zamir White run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+1