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AUB

Auburn 20 at Penn State 28

PSU
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:08 · Bo Nix pass incomplete to Kobe Hudson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Home team on offense+17.8Pregame prior+0.6Garbage-time factor+5.9Score differential+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.4Time remaining+2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:28: Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +4.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:23: Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:06: Tyler Warren run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:52: Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +16.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 10:48: Noah Cain run for 3 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +18.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:14PSU 4th & 1 at AUB 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:37AUB 4th & 10 at PSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:29PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:57AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:12AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:47AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:57PSU 4th & 1 at AUB 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    66.5%−5.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:55AUB 4th & 1 at PSU 26, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%−3.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−12.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:11AUB 4th & 17 at AUB 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−4.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:02PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 33, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:08AUB 4th & 2 at PSU 2, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−6.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−14.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:38PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 13, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:24PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:28AUB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:23PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:06PSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:52AUB Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:48PSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:4161% → 61%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
61.1%
Jahan Dotson run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
61.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 5 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
61.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 8 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
61.1%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+10
61.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 10 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
61.3%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
61.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+4
61.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 4 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
61.2%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the Aub 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:3139% → 39%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
60.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 18 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
60.7%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+10
60.5%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Jackson, Shedrick, PENALTY PENNST pass interference 10 yards to the PENNST28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
60.4%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
60.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+1
60.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 1 yd to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
60.6%
Anders Carlson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0460% → 60%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
60.4%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
60.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+6
59.9%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+8
59.8%
Jordan Stout punt for 51 yds , Demetris Robertson returns for 8 yds to the Aub 33 AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the Aub 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:2840% → 40%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
60.3%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
60.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+16
60.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 16 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
59.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-5
59.7%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 16
OWN 35
0
60.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+6
60.4%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
60.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:2659% → 64%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
59.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 10 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
59.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the PnSt 27 Keyvone Lee fumbled, recovered by PnStSimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+9
59.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 9 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
59.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 23 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+37
60.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 37 yds to the Aub 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
63.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 4 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3738% → 45%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
61.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 5 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
61.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
60.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+10
60.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 10 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
60.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
61.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+36
61.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 36 yds to the PnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
59.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the PnSt 12Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+8
59.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the PnSt 4Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
55.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:5657% → 56%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
57.2%
Noah Cain run for 9 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+4
58.4%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
57.3%
Sean Clifford sacked by TEAM for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 28 PENN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+5
56.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
56.1%
Jordan Stout punt for 58 yds, downed at the Aub 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:4843% → 44%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+23
57.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 23 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
56.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+4
54.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 4 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
54.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 1 yd to the Aub 44Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+1
54.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
55.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Tyler FrommSimilar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
55.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 6:3754% → 69%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
54.1%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+4
54.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 4 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+5
53.3%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
54.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 22 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
56.5%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+22
56.7%
Jahan Dotson pass complete to Tyler Warren for 22 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
58.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
58.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 7 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+10
56.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 10 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
58.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 6 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+2
58.3%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+4
56.5%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
57.9%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 2Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3334% → 33%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 6 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
64.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to John Samuel Shenker, broken up by Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
66.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
67.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:2966% → 68%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
65.7%
Sean Clifford run for 20 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
67.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 12 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.2%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Roger McCreary return for no gain to the Aub 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-2
66.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
64.3%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 10 yards to the Aub 20 Kobe Hudson Kobe Hudson fumbled, recovered by PnStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:3769% → 80%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
68.5%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+17
68.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 17 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
68.8%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the Aub 2Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.9%
Tyler Warren run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:0823% → 39%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
77.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 10 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
77.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
76.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 8 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
76.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+6
76.8%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+3
76.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 3 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
76.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 9 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+3
75.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
75.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+5
75.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 5 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
77.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
76.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+6
76.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+5
77.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
61.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:5369% → 71%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.2%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
70.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 5 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
70.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 12 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
71.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 5 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-1
73.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+5
72.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 5 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
71.1%
PJ Mustipher run for no gain to the Aub 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:5535% → 40%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
64.9%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
65.9%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick Jackson, broken up by Joey Porter Jr.Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+11
67.2%
Bo Nix run for 11 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
63.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
63.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
61.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
61.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 9 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 0:03
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
63.1%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the PnSt 26Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+43
60.0%
Anders Carlson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0264% → 90%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.9%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
63.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 8 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
65.2%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+18
66.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to John Lovett for 18 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+40
68.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 40 yds to the Aub 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
69.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 2 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Targeting (Zakoby McClain) to the Aub 1 for a 1ST down, McClain ejected.Similar
Q4 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
69.8%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 2Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
69.8%
Tyler Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 3Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.7%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 1:3415% → 12%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
84.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 16 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
83.5%
AUBURN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+3
85.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
86.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Demetris Robertson, broken up by Ji'Ayir BrownSimilar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 12
OWN 39
-5
87.0%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 17
OWN 34
0
87.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 17
OWN 34
+16
88.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 53 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 16 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0390% → 91%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
89.7%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
89.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 6 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 38
-5
91.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
90.6%
Jordan Stout punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Demetris Robertson at the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:5212% → 10%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
88.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
88.2%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
86.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+2
85.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 2 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
85.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+24
86.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 24 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
85.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
85.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the PnSt 9Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
87.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 7 yds to the PnSt 2Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
90.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:2995% → 97%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
95.3%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-1 Yards) to the PnSt 2Similar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 11
OWN 2
-1
95.4%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 1Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 12
OWN 1
+15
95.8%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Dotson, Jahan, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference 15 yards to the PENNST16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
95.6%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the PnSt 17Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 9
OWN 17
-1
96.8%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 10
OWN 16
-3
96.9%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 13Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
96.6%
Jordan Stout punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Demetris Robertson at the Aub 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:335% → 10%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
94.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
94.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 9 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+13
93.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 13 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
92.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
93.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+14
93.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 14 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
89.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
90.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:48
Noah Cain run for 3 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)
+18.5
TD · Q3 5:52
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)
-16.3
TD · Q3 13:06
Tyler Warren run for 2 yds for a TD (Jordan Stout KICK)
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com