Try the model
VAN

Vanderbilt 24 at Colorado State 21

CSU
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Canvas Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:50 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 174Home team on offense−12.3Pregame prior+2.4Garbage-time factor−5.4Score differential−3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:47: Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 20 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — VAN win probability +9.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:36: Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 9 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — VAN win probability +15.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:32: Ken Seals run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — VAN win probability +18.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:07: Trey McBride 3 Yd pass from Todd Centeio (Cayden Camper Kick) — CSU win probability +31.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:19: Joseph Bulovas 38 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +30.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 11:25VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 9, down 7
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:32CSU 4th & 14 at VAN 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:32CSU 4th & 6 at VAN 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:46VAN 4th & 8 at CSU 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:04CSU 4th & 16 at VAN 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:12VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 45, down 14
    Close callPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:57CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 28, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:22VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:12VAN 4th & 4 at CSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.0%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:45CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:09CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:51VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−3.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:24CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:33VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:50CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 30, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:34VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 24, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:20CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:29VAN 4th & 15 at VAN 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−3.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:07CSU 4th & 3 at VAN 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%−10.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−18.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:19VAN 4th & 9 at CSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−13.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−31.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:57CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:08CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:47VAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:36VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:32VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:07CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 15:0062% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
61.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 21 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
61.5%
David Bailey run for 13 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
61.5%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+27
61.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 27 yds to the Vandy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
61.5%
BAILEY, David rush up the middle for no gain to the VAN7 (JAMES, Christian;ANDERSON, BJ). PENALTY Before the snap, VAN Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the VAN7 to the VAN4. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
62.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 3 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
65.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 21 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
67.1%
David Bailey run for 13 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
67.3%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+27
67.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 27 yds to the Vandy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
67.4%
VANDERBILT Penalty, substitution infraction (4 Yards) to the Vandy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3238% → 37%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
62.2%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 4 yds to the Vandy 7Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+2
62.3%
Ken Seals run for 2 yds to the Vandy 9Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 4
OWN 9
0
62.3%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 4
OWN 9
0
63.0%
Harrison Smith punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3MISSED FG
16 plays · 40 yds · 11:2563% → 67%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
62.9%
Todd Centeio run for 10 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
63.0%
David Bailey run for 8 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+4
63.0%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
63.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to E.J. Scott for 6 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+5
63.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for 5 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
63.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
64.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for no gain to the Vandy 24Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+7
64.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 7 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
64.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
64.5%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the Vandy 16Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-5
64.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 14
OPP 21
0
63.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 14
OPP 21
+39
63.8%
Cayden Camper 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
65.8%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 4 yds to the Vandy 7Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+2
66.0%
Ken Seals run for 2 yds to the Vandy 9Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 9
0
66.5%
pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
16 plays · 1 yds · 6:3264% → 66%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
64.2%
Re'Mahn Davis run for no gain to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
64.3%
Re'Mahn Davis run for no gain to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+1
64.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Re'Mahn Davis for 1 yd to the Vandy 22Similar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
65.6%
Harrison Smith punt for 66 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
66.7%
Todd Centeio run for 10 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
67.1%
David Bailey run for 8 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+4
67.3%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
67.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to E.J. Scott for 6 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+5
67.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 5 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
67.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
67.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+7
67.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 7 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
67.4%
pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
67.4%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the Vandy 16Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-5
66.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 21
0
66.3%
pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 4:1165% → 66%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
64.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for 36 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
66.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+2
66.0%
Todd Centeio run for 2 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
65.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
65.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
65.6%
Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
65.8%
Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+1
66.3%
pass complete to Re'Mahn Davis for 1 yd to the Vandy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6FUMBLE
10 plays · 7 yds · 2:3935% → 34%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
64.9%
Devin Boddie Jr. run for 2 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
65.0%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+10
65.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 10 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
64.5%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
65.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for 36 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
67.3%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+2
67.2%
Todd Centeio run for 2 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
66.8%
pass incomplete to Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
65.4%
Ken Seals sacked by Toby McBride for 0 yards to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
66.2%
Ken Seals sacked for 0 yards to the Vandy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:4567% → 73%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
67.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+7
67.4%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+20
72.6%
David Bailey run for 20 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:2230% → 28%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
70.4%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Cole Clemens) to the Vandy 20Similar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
70.5%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
70.7%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 15 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
70.0%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
70.2%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 7 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+14
69.5%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 14 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
69.1%
Ken Seals run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
69.6%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+8
69.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 8 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-5
69.5%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Bradley Ashmore) to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
71.6%
Harrison Smith punt for 33 yds, downed at the ColSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:4273% → 74%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+21
73.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 21 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
73.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+14
73.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 14 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+32
75.0%
Todd Centeio run for 32 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
75.1%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-3
75.1%
David Bailey run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 13
OPP 25
+2
74.5%
Todd Centeio run for 2 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 11
OPP 23
-5
73.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Barry Wesley) to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+46
74.2%
Cayden Camper 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 3:5226% → 24%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
74.3%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 2 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+10
74.3%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 10 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
73.9%
Ken Seals sacked by Scott Patchan and Devin Phillips for 0 yards to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+9
74.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Re'Mahn Davis for 9 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+6
74.8%
Ken Seals pass complete to Re'Mahn Davis for 6 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
76.3%
Harrison Smith punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1577% → 77%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
77.2%
David Bailey run for 8 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 2
OWN 27
-1
77.4%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+2
77.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Cameron Butler for 2 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
77.3%
punt blocked by Allan George blocked by Allan GeorgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 1:1023% → 35%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
76.8%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 2
50
-5
75.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Ben Cox) to the Vandy 45Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
76.2%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+18
77.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 18 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
75.2%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
75.3%
SEALS, Ken pass to the right complete for 2 yards to JOHNSON, Cam caught at the CSU37 and advanced to the CSU35 (FRANCIS, Tywan). PENALTY CSU Unnecessary Roughness on FRANCIS, Tywan enforced 15 yards from the CSU35 to the CSU20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
74.0%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
64.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 20 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13END OF HALF
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:4771% → 71%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+20
70.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 20 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
72.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
72.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 11 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
73.3%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
73.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 7 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-15
72.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Trey McBride) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 18
50
+5
70.6%
Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3829% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Re'Mahn Davis for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
70.8%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
71.7%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
72.8%
Harrison Smith punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:1072% → 74%
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
72.1%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
72.1%
David Bailey run for 6 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 14:22
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
72.7%
Todd Centeio run for 2 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
73.6%
Todd Centeio pass intercepted return for no gain to the Vandy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:3631% → 49%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
68.8%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 1 yd to the Vandy 48Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-5
69.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Michael Warden) to the Vandy 43Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+10
71.0%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 10 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
68.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for no gain to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+8
70.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 8 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
68.3%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
68.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 5 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+25
68.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 25 yds to the ColSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
66.5%
Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the ColSt 9Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
51.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 9 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5160% → 59%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.7%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
59.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
57.8%
Todd Centeio run for 10 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
58.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1343% → 68%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.6%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+25
56.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 25 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
52.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
52.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 15 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
51.2%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 7 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 3
OPP 14
0
51.2%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+4
52.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 4 yds to the ColSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
51.2%
Rocko Griffin run for 9 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.5%
Ken Seals run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2340% → 38%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
39.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 12 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
40.8%
Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
43.2%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-5
42.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
41.3%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
37.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:1866% → 66%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
33.9%
Ken Seals run for 7 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+1
32.6%
Devin Boddie Jr. run for 1 yd to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+5
32.9%
SEALS, Ken pass to the left incomplete dropped by SHEPPARD, Will broken up by CAMERON, Marshaun at the VAN45. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on CAMERON, Marshaun enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards from the VAN45 to the VAN45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
32.4%
Rocko Griffin run for 8 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-15
31.6%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Personal Foul (Gavin Schoenwald) to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
34.0%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
34.9%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:51
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
34.4%
Harrison Smith punt for 53 yds, downed at the ColSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2737% → 31%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
36.7%
A'Jon Vivens run for 1 yd to the ColSt 6Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+2
36.6%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 7
OWN 8
0
35.1%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 7
OWN 8
+2
31.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 81 yds , Cam Johnson returns for 2 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:2769% → 72%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
31.5%
Re'Mahn Davis run for no gain to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+15
31.9%
SEALS, Ken pass to the left incomplete intended for SHEPPARD, Will thrown to the VAN45. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on CAMERON, Marshaun enforced 15 yards from the VAN13 to the VAN28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
30.5%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 2 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
30.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 6 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
30.0%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
28.4%
Harrison Smith punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4333% → 31%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
32.6%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
32.5%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
32.2%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
30.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1672% → 71%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
27.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 6 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+2
27.1%
Ken Seals run for 2 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 2
OWN 24
0
27.6%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 2
OWN 24
+5
29.5%
Harrison Smith punt for 56 yds , Gerick Robinson returns for 5 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1431% → 24%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.3%
David Bailey run for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to A'Jon Vivens for 5 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
30.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+4
26.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 55 yds , Cam Johnson returns for 4 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
24.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Targeting on BROWN, Tavian enforced (Tavian Brown) to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 4:5177% → 83%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
23.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 33Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+2
24.0%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+10
24.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 10 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
21.7%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 1 yd to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-15
21.7%
SEALS, Ken pass to the right complete for 18 yards to SHEPPARD, Will caught at the CSU41 and advanced to the CSU36 (CAMERON, Marshaun), out of bounds. PENALTY VAN Pass Interference on SHEPPARD, Will enforced 15 yards from the VAN46 to the VAN31 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 24
OWN 31
-5
24.8%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Delay Of Game (Ken Seals) to the Vandy 26Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 29
OWN 26
+7
24.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 7 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 22
OWN 33
+7
25.8%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 7 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
17.1%
Harrison Smith punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:2224% → 60%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
23.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 16 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
26.9%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 9
50
0
26.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 9
50
+15
24.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to E.J. Scott for 15 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+29
30.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 29 yds to the Vandy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
31.1%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
30.6%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the Vandy 3Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
28.6%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
60.2%
Trey McBride 3 Yd pass from Todd Centeio (Cayden Camper Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 28FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:4849% → 87%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
51.1%
SEALS, Ken pass to the right incomplete intended for SHEPPARD, Will thrown to the CSU50. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on CAMERON, Marshaun enforced 15 yards from the VAN25 to the VAN40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
47.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Cam Johnson for 6 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+15
46.1%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Targeting on STEWART, Logan enforced (Logan Stewart) to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
43.3%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 7 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+7
42.7%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 7 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
40.4%
Re'Mahn Davis run for no gain to the ColSt 21Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+2
41.0%
Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 8
OPP 19
-1
43.5%
Rocko Griffin run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 20Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+38
13.2%
Joseph Bulovas 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 29Uncategorized
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.1%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
21.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to E.J. Scott for 17 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:07
Trey McBride 3 Yd pass from Todd Centeio (Cayden Camper Kick)
+31.6
FG · Q4 0:19
Joseph Bulovas 38 yd FG GOOD
-30.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-21.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com