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PITT

Pittsburgh 41 at Tennessee 34

TENN
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-11.5TENN 13.7%Kenny Pickett 1 Yd Run (Sam ScartonKick)AWAY 34 - HOME 20 · Q3 4:49
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:49 · Kenny Pickett 1 Yd Run (Sam Scarton Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Home team on offense−25.1Pregame prior−5.5Garbage-time factor−7.4Score differential−11.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:16: Jimmy Calloway 44 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick) — TENN win probability +16.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:19: Vincent Davis 2 Yd Run (Sam Scarton Kick) — PITT win probability +11.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:32: Jacob Warren 8 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick) — TENN win probability +18.5 pts (now 37%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:22: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +13.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:09: Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +16.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:37PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:38PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:17TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:37PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 11, down 7
    Close callPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:44TENN 4th & 3 at PITT 20, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.3%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:34PITT 4th & 12 at TENN 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:43TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:53PITT 4th & 6 at TENN 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    51.4%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:57PITT 4th & 21 at TENN 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−2.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    66.9%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:03TENN 4th & 17 at TENN 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−3.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:18PITT 4th & 2 at TENN 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−2.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:49PITT 4th & 1 at TENN 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    66.5%−3.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−14.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:20PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:53TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 28, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:39PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−3.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:59TENN 4th & 1 at PITT 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−3.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−16.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:34TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:53PITT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:25PITT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:16TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:19PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:49PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:32TENN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:22PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:09TENN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1566% → 66%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-4
33.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 12Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 14
OWN 12
0
34.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 14
OWN 12
0
34.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for no gain to the Pitt 12Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
34.5%
TEAM punt blocked by Christian Charles blocked by Christian CharlesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
35.1%
Jabari Small 2 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
Q1 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
35.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Tenn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4065% → 64%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
35.1%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+3
35.4%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+6
36.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 6 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
36.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Len'Neth Whitehead at the Tenn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:1337% → 38%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
36.6%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Princeton Fant for 9 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+4
36.9%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
37.0%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+10
37.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Princeton Fant for 10 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
37.7%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 20
OWN 34
0
37.7%
Joe Milton III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 20
OWN 34
+13
37.8%
Joe Milton III run for 13 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
38.4%
Joe Milton III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
38.2%
Paxton Brooks punt for 51 yds, downed at the Pitt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3462% → 60%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
38.4%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 4Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
38.7%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+5
39.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 5 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
40.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Theo Jackson at the Tenn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6FG
13 plays · 31 yds · 2:4640% → 43%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
40.3%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jimmy CallowaySimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
40.3%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+5
40.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-5
40.5%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+9
40.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 9 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
41.1%
Joe Milton III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
41.2%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+5
40.9%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+7
41.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jacob Warren for 7 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
41.7%
Joe Milton III sacked by Habakkuk Baldonado for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+6
41.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 6 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+3
42.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 3 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
42.7%
Chase McGrath 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 4:3858% → 60%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
42.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 7 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+6
42.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
42.3%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Theo Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 19Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+12
43.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 12 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
43.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 22 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
43.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 4 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+1
43.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the Tenn 42Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+16
44.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 16 yds to the Tenn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
43.5%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Tenn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
43.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Tenn 8Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-3
43.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 11Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
40.1%
Melquise Stovall 11 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 3:3141% → 50%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.3%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
41.4%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
41.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
43.0%
Jaylen Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 41Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+54
42.2%
Joe Milton III run for 54 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
44.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the Pitt 3Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
44.5%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Darnell Wright) to the Pitt 8Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-14
44.8%
Joe Milton III run for 1 yd to the Pitt 7 TENNESSEE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Pitt 22Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
-15
45.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Cedric Tillman) to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 37
+6
44.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jabari Small for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 0
OPP 31
+48
49.7%
Chase McGrath 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4152% → 63%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
48.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 31 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
46.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 4 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+1
46.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Tenn 39Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+23
46.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
37.3%
Lucas Krull 16 Yd pass from Jared Wayne (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · -12 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-12
41.8%
Joe Milton III sacked by Keyshon Camp for a loss of 12 yards to the Tenn 18 Joe Milton III fumbled, forced by Keyshon Camp, recovered by Pitt Keyshon Camp , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3163% → 62%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
37.4%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
37.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 12
OPP 20
0
38.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+38
38.1%
Sam Scarton 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:3439% → 37%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
38.9%
Jaylen Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 18Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 13
OWN 18
0
38.0%
Hendon Hooker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 13
OWN 18
0
37.1%
Hendon Hooker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 13
OWN 18
+5
36.8%
Paxton Brooks punt for 35 yds , Melquise Stovall returns for 5 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:4164% → 68%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
35.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
35.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+14
36.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 14 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
35.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+15
35.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 15 yds to the Tenn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
35.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
35.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Tenn 5Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 2
OPP 5
-4
35.9%
Kenny Pickett run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 9Similar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
31.9%
Sam Scarton 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:1734% → 49%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
33.8%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
33.8%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+20
33.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 20 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
49.4%
Jimmy Calloway 44 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:4957% → 74%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.6%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
42.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 13 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
40.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-5
41.1%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+5
42.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 5 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+20
42.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 20 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+27
39.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 27 yds to the Tenn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
37.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 8 yds to the Tenn 3Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+1
37.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 1 yd to the Tenn 2Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
25.9%
Vincent Davis 2 Yd Run (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.2%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Tenn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4532% → 32%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the Tenn 26Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
31.8%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q3 14:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
30.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 11 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
32.5%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-5
31.7%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Habakkuk Baldonado for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 27 Hendon Hooker fumbled, recovered by Pitt Habakkuk Baldonado , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 2:0673% → 70%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
27.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
27.4%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Tenn 27Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-11
27.9%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Jeremy Banks for a loss of 11 yards to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 21
OPP 38
0
30.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 35 yds, downed at the Tenn 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4731% → 29%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+14
30.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 14 yds to the Tenn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
31.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the Tenn 18Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-9
31.0%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-9 Yards) to the Tenn 9Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 18
OWN 9
0
30.6%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jimmy CallowaySimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 18
OWN 9
+1
29.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 1 yd to the Tenn 10Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 17
OWN 10
0
29.1%
Paxton Brooks punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Melquise Stovall at the Pitt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:0973% → 86%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
27.4%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 41Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+18
27.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 18 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
26.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 5 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+4
26.5%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-1
25.9%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+5
27.5%
Kenny Pickett run for 5 yds to the Tenn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
25.0%
Vincent Davis run for 7 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+15
24.6%
Pickett, Kenny pass incomplete, PENALTY TENNESSEE pass interference 15 yards to the TENNESSEE6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q3 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
24.6%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Tenn 5Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
24.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q3 5:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
25.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the Tenn 1Similar
Q3 4:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.7%
Kenny Pickett 1 Yd Run (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:0316% → 37%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
16.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Princeton Fant for 16 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
17.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Princeton Fant for 12 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
18.2%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Calijah Kancey for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+3
16.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 3 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+23
15.9%
Hendon Hooker run for 23 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
18.0%
Hooker, Hendon pass incomplete to Merrill, Walker, PENALTY PITTSBURGH holding 9 yards to the PITTSBURGH8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q3 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
36.5%
Jacob Warren 8 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0274% → 72%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.2%
Jordan Addison run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
25.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
27.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
28.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Trevon Flowers at the Tenn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2730% → 27%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
30.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 17Similar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 15
OWN 17
-7
29.8%
Hendon Hooker sacked by David Green for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 10Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 22
OWN 10
+2
29.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 2 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q3 0:26
3RD & 20
OWN 12
+16
27.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 16 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
27.1%
Paxton Brooks punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Melquise Stovall at the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2375% → 94%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
25.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+40
23.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 40 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
20.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 21 yds to the Tenn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
20.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds to the Tenn 5Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
19.9%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Tenn 5Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
6.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:0214% → 32%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
13.6%
Hendon Hooker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+19
13.1%
Hendon Hooker run for 19 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
14.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for 6 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+34
14.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for 34 yds to the Pitt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
15.3%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the Pitt 1Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
14.7%
Jaylen Wright run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2579% → 78%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
21.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
21.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
22.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 42 yds, downed at the Tenn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27DOWNS
14 plays · 63 yds · 4:0025% → 17%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
24.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+15
24.3%
Hendon Hooker run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
50
-5
28.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+15
25.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
29.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 16 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (12 Yards) to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
30.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for no gain to the Pitt 12Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
30.6%
Hendon Hooker run for 6 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+3
28.2%
Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds to the Pitt 3Similar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 1
OPP 3
-1
25.1%
Jaylen Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 4Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 5
-2
16.5%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 3Similar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
16.1%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 5Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 11
OWN 3
0
16.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 11
OWN 3
0
17.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 28INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2827% → 27%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
27.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-25
26.5%
Hendon Hooker pass intercepted Brandon Hill return for 25 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 29END OF 4TH QUARTER
10 plays · 17 yds · 4:3689% → 95%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
11.1%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+6
10.7%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+6
9.5%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
7.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 8 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+5
4.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
4.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 15
OPP 37
-1
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 38Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 16
OPP 38
-1
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 17
OPP 39
-2
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:32
Jacob Warren 8 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)
+18.5
TD · Q4 10:09
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
+16.9
TD · Q2 2:16
Jimmy Calloway 44 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)
+16.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com