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APSU

Austin Peay 17 at Ole Miss 54

MISS
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadAPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreAPSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:26: Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 1 yd for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — APSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:59: Sam Williams 33 Yd Fumble Return (Caden Costa Kick) — MISS win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:28: Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 15 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:51: Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 49 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:04: Draylen Ellis pass complete to Baniko Harley for 30 yds for a TD, (Maddux Trujillo KICK) — APSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 9APSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 14:04APSU 4th & 10 at APSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:21APSU 4th & 1 at APSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:20APSU 4th & 1 at MISS 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:23MISS 4th & 12 at APSU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:54APSU 4th & 8 at APSU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:29MISS 4th & 4 at APSU 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:29APSU 4th & 20 at MISS 33, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:29MISS 4th & 1 at APSU 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:51MISS 4th & 2 at APSU 49, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.4%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:03MISS 4th & 6 at APSU 11, up 30
    Close callWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:57MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:40MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 42, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:21APSU 4th & 13 at MISS 13, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:54APSU 4th & 12 at MISS 36, down 41
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:00APSU 4th & 7 at APSU 31, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:48MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 48, up 41
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:56APSU 4th & 17 at APSU 45, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:14MISS 4th & 5 at APSU 8, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7APSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:26MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:59MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:28MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:51MISS Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:03MISS Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:04APSU Touchdown, down 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:46MISS Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:13MISS Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:12APSU Touchdown, down 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+35
98.8%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to D.J. Render for 20 yds to the APeay 30 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Deane Leonard) to the APeay 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.8%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
98.8%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
98.8%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+1
98.7%
Matt Rigney punt for 36 yds , Braylon Sanders returns for 1 yd to the Miss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:3899% → 99%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
98.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+14
98.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 14 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+28
98.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 28 yds to the APeay 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
98.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 5 yds to the APeay 29Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
98.7%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+17
98.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 17 yds to the APeay 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.7%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+9
98.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 9 yds to the APeay 3Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
98.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the APeay 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 1 yd for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 3DOWNS
13 plays · 52 yds · 3:011% → 2%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
98.6%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Ahmaad Tanner for 14 yds to the APeay 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
98.6%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+8
98.6%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 8 yds to the APeay 34Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
98.6%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 1 yd to the APeay 35Similar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+2
98.6%
Draylen Ellis run for 2 yds to the APeay 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.6%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
98.6%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 3 yds to the APeay 40Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+15
98.6%
ELLIS, Draylen pass up the middle incomplete intended for MCCRAY, Drae thrown to the OLE44. PENALTY OLE Pass Interference on LEONARD, Deane enforced 15 yards from the APS40 to the OLE45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.5%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Drae McCray for 4 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+5
98.5%
Brian Snead run for 5 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
98.5%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
98.3%
Ahmaad Tanner run for no gain to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
98.4%
CORRAL, Matt scrambles up the middle for a gain of 10 yards to the OLE46 (PERRY, Koby). PENALTY OLE Holding on CADE, Erick enforced 10 yards from the OLE36 to the OLE26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:5798% → 98%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+27
98.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 27 yds to the APeay 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 18
OWN 45
+6
98.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 6 yds to the APeay 49Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
98.3%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
98.1%
Mac Brown punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 5FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:242% → 2%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
98.2%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to CJ Evans Jr. for 11 yds to the APeay 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.1%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
98.1%
Brian Snead run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 30Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+33
98.3%
Sam Williams 33 Yd Fumble Return (Caden Costa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:002% → 2%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.3%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the APeay 20Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
98.3%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to CJ Evans Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the APeay 18Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+4
98.3%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to CJ Evans Jr. for 4 yds to the APeay 22Similar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+46
98.2%
Matt Rigney punt for 36 yds for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:2598% → 98%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
98.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+10
98.3%
Jerrion Ealy run for 10 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
98.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 11 yds to the APeay 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
98.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 15 yds to the APeay 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
98.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the APeay 24Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
98.3%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+4
98.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 4 yds to the APeay 20Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 4
OPP 20
0
98.1%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 8DOWNS
16 plays · 46 yds · 5:002% → 2%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.0%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to D.J. Render for 2 yds to the APeay 22Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+11
97.9%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 11 yds to the APeay 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
97.9%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 8 yds to the APeay 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+6
97.8%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Baniko Harley for 6 yds to the APeay 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.9%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
97.9%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Drae McCray for 7 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
97.8%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 5 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
97.8%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
97.8%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 4 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-1
97.6%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to D.J. Render for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+15
97.7%
ELLIS, Draylen pass to the left incomplete intended for MCCRAY, Drae broken up by BATTLE, Miles at the OLE5. PENALTY OLE Pass Interference on BATTLE, Miles enforced 15 yards from the OLE38 to the OLE23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
97.5%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-5
97.5%
Ahmaad Tanner run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 15
OPP 28
-5
97.7%
ELLIS, Draylen pass to the left complete for 10 yards to RENDER, D.J. caught at the OLE31 and advanced to the OLE18 (FINLEY, A.J.). PENALTY Before the snap, APS Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the OLE28 to the OLE33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 20
OPP 33
0
97.5%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 20
OPP 33
0
97.6%
Draylen Ellis sacked by Cedric Johnson for 0 yards to the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:0198% → 99%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
97.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 9 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+19
97.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 19 yds to the APeay 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
97.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the APeay 43Similar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+5
97.9%
Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the APeay 38Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
97.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 2 yds to the APeay 36Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+7
97.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 7 yds to the APeay 29Similar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+14
97.8%
Matt Corral run for 14 yds to the APeay 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
98.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 15 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 10Uncategorized
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:161% → 1%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
98.7%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to D.J. Render for 5 yds to the APeay 20Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
98.7%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the APeay 20Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+6
98.7%
Brian Snead run for 6 yds to the APeay 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
98.7%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+8
98.7%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 8 yds to the APeay 34Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 2
OWN 34
-4
98.6%
Ahmaad Tanner run for a loss of 4 yards to the APeay 30Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
98.7%
AUSTINPEAY Penalty, fumbled snap, . SAFETY Illegal Touch Of Kick on RIGNEY, Matthew (Matt Rigney) declined for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:0399% → 99%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
98.9%
Braylon Sanders run for 6 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
98.9%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+2
98.8%
Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the APeay 49Similar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+49
99.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 49 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Draylen Ellis sacked for 0 yards to the APeay 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.5%
Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the APeay 25Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+10
99.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the APeay 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.5%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+9
99.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 9 yds to the APeay 11Similar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+11
99.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 11 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:590% → 1%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Roughing the Passer on WILLIAMS, Sam enforced (15 Yards) to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.7%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 3 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+15
99.7%
ELLIS, Draylen pass to the left incomplete intended for MCCRAY, Drae thrown to the OLE0. PENALTY OLE Pass Interference on JONES, Jaylon enforced 15 yards from the OLE45 to the OLE30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.5%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Baniko Harley for 30 yds for a TD, (Maddux Trujillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 2 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+8
99.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Mac Brown punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 53 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
99.7%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Drae McCray for 6 yds to the APeay 15Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+21
99.6%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Baniko Harley for 21 yds to the APeay 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.6%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to D.J. Render for 8 yds to the APeay 44Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
99.6%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+18
99.6%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to CJ Evans Jr. for 18 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 11 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
99.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 15 yds to the APeay 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
99.7%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 9 yds to the APeay 40Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+40
99.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 40 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:250% → 0%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.7%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to Drae McCray for 7 yds to the APeay 32Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
99.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offsides (Quentin Bivens) to the APeay 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.7%
pass incomplete pass complete to Baniko Harley for 9 yds to the APeay 37Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.7%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to D.J. Render for 2 yds to the APeay 39Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
99.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jaylon Jones) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.7%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
99.7%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to D.J. Render for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
99.7%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
99.6%
Maddux Trujillo 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 4:06100% → 100%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
99.8%
CONNER, Snoop rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the APS40 (CHAPMAN, Kory). PENALTY OLE Holding on BROWN, Ben enforced 10 yards from the APS46 to the OLE44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+17
99.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 17 yds to the APeay 39Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+1
99.8%
Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the APeay 38Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
99.8%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the APeay 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
99.8%
Matt Corral run for 19 yds to the APeay 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
99.8%
Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the APeay 9Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+6
99.8%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the APeay 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.8%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Snoop Conner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:100% → 0%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 5 yds to the APeay 28Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Draylen Ellis pass complete to D.J. Render for 4 yds to the APeay 32Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 7 yds to the APeay 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
99.9%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 1 yd to the APeay 40Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+15
99.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (MoMo Sanogo) to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.8%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 2 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-6
99.8%
run for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 14
OPP 38
+2
99.9%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 2 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+34
99.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 34 yds to the APeay 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
99.9%
Luke Altmyer run for 14 yds to the APeay 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
99.9%
Snoop Conner run for 8 yds to the APeay 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 23 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+20
99.9%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 20 yds to the APeay 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+6
99.9%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 6 yds to the APeay 30Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 1 yd to the APeay 31Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Matt Rigney punt for 40 yds, downed at the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
99.9%
Jahcour Pearson run for 16 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.9%
run for 3 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:48
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Draylen Ellis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
CJ Evans Jr. run for no gain to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Draylen Ellis sacked by Tywone Malone for 0 yards to the APeay 45Similar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Matt Rigney punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
99.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 12 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the APeay 49Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the APeay 47Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+17
99.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 17 yds to the APeay 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
99.9%
Kinkead Dent pass complete to Jonathan Hess for 7 yds to the APeay 23Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+10
99.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 10 yds to the APeay 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
99.9%
Kinkead Dent run for 2 yds to the APeay 11Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+3
99.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the APeay 8Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Kinkead Dent pass complete to Jonathan Hess for no gain to the APeay 8Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
99.9%
Caden Costa 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 26TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:490% → 0%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
100.0%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 2 yds to the APeay 21Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+21
100.0%
Sheldon Layman pass complete to Trey Goodman for 21 yds to the APeay 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
100.0%
Sheldon Layman pass complete to Joshua DeCambre for 13 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
100.0%
Sheldon Layman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
100.0%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+40
100.0%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 40 yds for a TD, (Maddux Trujillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 26 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
100.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+17
100.0%
run for 17 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
100.0%
PENALTY APS Unsportsmanlike Conduct on BENTLEY, Eric OLE Unsportsmanlike Conduct on RHODES, Jordan , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
100.0%
JJ Henry run for 4 yds to the APeay 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-1
100.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:28
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 15 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q2 4:51
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 49 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q1 4:59
Sam Williams 33 Yd Fumble Return (Caden Costa Kick)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com