Try the model
MER

Mercer 14 at Alabama 48

ALA
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMER aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMER score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG—ALA 99.9%Will Reichard 30 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 31 · Q2 0:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:33 · Will Reichard 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior+40.2Home team on offense+27.8Score differential+20.0Blowout margin+7.3Garbage-time factor+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:22: Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:51: Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 18 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:30: Jase McClellan run for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MER made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:00ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:57MER 4th & 4 at MER 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:05ALA 4th & 15 at ALA 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:39MER 4th & 6 at MER 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:06MER 4th & 7 at MER 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:53MER 4th & 11 at MER 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:43ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 46, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:11MER 4th & 15 at MER 1, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:30ALA 4th & 1 at MER 5, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:12MER 4th & 20 at MER 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:33ALA 4th & 6 at MER 13, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:59MER 4th & 2 at MER 31, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:37MER 4th & 1 at ALA 32, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.1%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:10ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 49, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:41ALA 4th & 12 at MER 22, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MER made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:22ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:51ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:30ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:52ALA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:21MER Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:50ALA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:24MER Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
99.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
99.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 4 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 2
OWN 35
-7
99.6%
Bryce Young sacked by Solomon Zubairu for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 28Similar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
99.6%
James Burnip punt for 42 yds, downed at the Mercr 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
99.6%
Fred Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mercr 29Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+5
99.6%
Ethan Dirrim run for 5 yds to the Mercr 34Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+2
99.6%
Fred Davis run for 2 yds to the Mercr 36Similar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 4
OWN 36
-5
99.6%
Trey Turk punt for 49 yds , Slade Bolden returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 6 yds · 2:44100% → 99%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
99.6%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie IIISimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+10
99.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 10 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 21Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
99.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+5
99.5%
MERCER Penalty, Defensive Offside (Chris Hill) to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+10
99.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 10 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
99.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jameson Williams) to the Alab 21Similar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
99.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Emil Ekiyor Jr.) to the Alab 11Similar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 20
OWN 11
0
99.5%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 20
OWN 11
+5
99.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 5 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 15
OWN 16
0
99.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
99.4%
James Burnip punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Yahsyn McKee at the Mercr 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 4PUNT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.4%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Andrew MaySimilar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.4%
Brandon Marshall run for 1 yd to the Mercr 41Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+3
99.4%
Fred Payton pass complete to Fred Davis for 3 yds to the Mercr 44Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+33
99.4%
TEAM punt blocked by Chris Braswell, Jase McClellan return for 33 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 5INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:321% → 1%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.4%
Brandon Marshall run for 1 yd to the Mercr 36Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
99.4%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Devron Harper for 9 yds to the Mercr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.3%
Carter Peevy run for 9 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
99.3%
Carter Peevy pass intercepted Kool-Aid McKinstry return for no gain to the Alab 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:1899% → 99%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
99.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 14 yds to the Mercr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
99.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 8 yds to the Mercr 32Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+14
99.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 14 yds to the Mercr 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
99.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 14 yds to the Mercr 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.4%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:101% → 1%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.4%
Ethan Dirrim run for 7 yds to the Mercr 32Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.4%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Ethan DirrimSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-4
99.4%
Carter Peevy sacked by DJ Dale for a loss of 4 yards to the Mercr 28Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+9
99.3%
Trey Turk punt for 36 yds , Slade Bolden returns for 9 yds to the Alab 37 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:5499% → 100%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.4%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+18
99.4%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Mercr 42 for a 1ST down MERCER Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Isaac Dowling) to the Mercr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
99.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 13 yds to the Mercr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
99.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 1 yd to the Mercr 29Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
99.3%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+11
99.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 11 yds to the Mercr 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 18 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:391% → 1%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jordan Battle) to the Mercr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
99.5%
Ethan Dirrim run for 6 yds to the Mercr 41 MERCER Penalty, Offensive Holding (Devron Harper) to the Mercr 31Similar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 14
OWN 31
+3
99.5%
Parker Wroble run for 3 yds to the Mercr 34Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Ty JamesSimilar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Andrew MaySimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+25
99.5%
Trey Turk punt for 54 yds , Slade Bolden returns for 25 yds to the Alab 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-5
99.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Javion Cohen) to the Alab 36Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+5
99.5%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
99.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 5 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
99.5%
James Burnip punt for 44 yds , Yahsyn McKee returns for 2 yds to the Mercr 48 MERCER Penalty, Illegal Block (6 Yards) to the Mercr 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:041% → 1%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
99.5%
Ethan Dirrim run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mercr 5Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 11
OWN 5
-2
99.5%
MERCER Penalty, False Start (-2 Yards) to the Mercr 3Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 13
OWN 3
-1
99.5%
MERCER Penalty, Delay of Game (-1 Yards) to the Mercr 2Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 14
OWN 2
-1
99.5%
Ethan Dirrim run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mercr 1Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 15
OWN 1
0
99.5%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Parker WrobleSimilar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 15
OWN 1
+16
99.5%
Trey Turk punt for 44 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 16 yds to the Mercr 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
99.5%
MERCER Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Richie Coffey) to the Mercr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
99.5%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the Mercr 13Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
99.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jase McClellanSimilar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+8
99.5%
Bryce Young run for 8 yds to the Mercr 5Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
99.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (DeMarcco Hellams) to the Mercr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.8%
Brandon Marshall run for 2 yds to the Mercr 41Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-6
99.8%
Carter Peevy sacked by Byron Young for a loss of 6 yards to the Mercr 35Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 14
OWN 35
-6
99.8%
Carter Peevy sacked by Phidarian Mathis for a loss of 6 yards to the Mercr 29Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 20
OWN 29
+29
99.8%
Trey Turk punt for 46 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 29 yds to the Mercr 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+16
99.8%
Trey Sanders run for 16 yds to the Mercr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.8%
Trey Sanders run for 4 yds to the Mercr 26Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
99.8%
Trey Sanders run for 4 yds to the Mercr 22Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+5
99.8%
Trey Sanders run for 5 yds to the Mercr 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
99.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 2 yds to the Mercr 15Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+2
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the Mercr 13Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Brian Robinson Jr.Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
99.9%
Will Reichard 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Fred Davis run for 6 yds to the Mercr 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
99.8%
Fred Davis run for 7 yds to the Mercr 30Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Fred Davis run for 2 yds to the Mercr 32Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 1
OWN 32
-1
99.9%
Ethan Dirrim run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mercr 31Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 2
OWN 31
-3
99.9%
Trey Turk punt for 37 yds , JoJo Earle returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 28 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jalyn Armour-Davis) to the Alab 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
99.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 18 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+41
99.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 41 yds to the Mercr 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Mercr 8Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 18TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ty James for 11 yds to the Mercr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Parker Wroble for 5 yds to the Mercr 31Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
99.9%
Brandon Marshall run for 3 yds to the Mercr 34Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Parker Wroble for 6 yds to the Mercr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Devron Harper for 60 yds for a TD, (Devin Folser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
99.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 17 yds to the Mercr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
99.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for a loss of 2 yards to the Mercr 49Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+14
99.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 14 yds to the Mercr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
99.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 19 yds to the Mercr 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
99.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Darrian Dalcourt) to the Mercr 21Similar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 21 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 20INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.9%
Fred Davis run for 4 yds to the Mercr 19Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
99.9%
Fred Davis run for 5 yds to the Mercr 24Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Fred Payton run for 2 yds to the Mercr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Fred Payton pass intercepted Marcus Banks return for no gain to the Mercr 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21MISSED FG
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:11100% → 100%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+39
99.9%
Paul Tyson pass complete to JoJo Earle for 39 yds to the Mercr 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for a loss of 7 yards to the Mercr 15 Trey Sanders fumbled, recovered by Alab Trey SandersSimilar
Q3 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Paul Tyson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Paul Tyson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 22TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:460% → 0%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Brandon Marshall run for 7 yds to the Mercr 27Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
Brandon Marshall run for 1 yd to the Mercr 28Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+10
99.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jaylen Moody) to the Mercr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
Fred Davis run for 4 yds to the Mercr 42Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+17
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ethan Dirrim for 17 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Ethan DirrimSimilar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
99.9%
Fred Davis run for 8 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+1
99.9%
Fred Davis run for 1 yd to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+3
99.9%
Fred Payton run for 3 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Andrew May for 7 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+22
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ty James for 22 yds for a TD, (Devin Folser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 5:24100% → 100%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
Trey Sanders run for 7 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+13
99.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 13 yds to the Mercr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the Mercr 34Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jahleel BillingsleySimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+14
99.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 14 yds to the Mercr 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the Mercr 19Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-2
99.9%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mercr 21Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 11
OPP 21
-1
99.9%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Obinna Nwankwo for a loss of 1 yard to the Mercr 22Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+40
99.9%
Will Reichard 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:360% → 0%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
100.0%
Ethan Dirrim run for 9 yds to the Mercr 34Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+28
100.0%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ethan Dirrim for 28 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
100.0%
Fred Davis run for 9 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Fred Davis run for no gain to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+3
99.9%
Fred Payton run for 3 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
99.9%
Fred Payton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 28 Fred Payton fumbled, recovered by Mercr Fred PaytonSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-24
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 24 yards to the Mercr 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MercrSimilar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 36
OWN 48
+4
100.0%
Fred Payton run for 4 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 32
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Trey Turk punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
100.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 8 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
100.0%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the Alab 34Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
100.0%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:51
Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 18 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q2 6:30
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 3:22
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
+0.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com