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LOU

Louisville 24 at Ole Miss 43

MISS
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 6, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-5.7MISS 93.7%Malik Cunningham pass complete toBraden Smith for 4 yds for a TD (JamesTurner KICK)AWAY 10 - HOME 29 · Q3 1:58
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:58 · Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 4 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Home team on offense+20.2Pregame prior+7.0Score differential+8.6Garbage-time factor+5.4Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:25: Matt Corral run for 6 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +6.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:12: Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +5.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 12:35: James Turner 38 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +2.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:58: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 4 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +5.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:58: Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +3.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7LOU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 6:25LOU 4th & 1 at MISS 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−0.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:04MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:11LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:25MISS 4th & 17 at LOU 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:55LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 40, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:08MISS 4th & 2 at LOU 46, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    73.7%−1.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:21LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 13, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:19MISS 4th & 18 at MISS 36, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:50LOU 4th & 3 at MISS 41, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:44LOU 4th & 2 at MISS 19, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:35LOU 4th & 6 at MISS 20, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:37MISS 4th & 6 at LOU 46, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%−0.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:22MISS 4th & 15 at LOU 20, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:58LOU 4th & 3 at MISS 4, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.9%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:58LOU 4th & 1 at MISS 1, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:22MISS 4th & 5 at LOU 41, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:55MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:25MISS Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:12MISS Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:58LOU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:11MISS Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:58LOU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:11MISS Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:58LOU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
13 plays · 94 yds · 2:5174% → 75%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+24
74.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 24 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
74.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
74.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario DrummondSimilar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+11
73.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 11 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
74.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 27 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
74.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+18
74.0%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 18 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
74.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
74.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+2
73.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Greedy Vance) to the Lvile 1Similar
Q1 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.6%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd for a TD (Cale Nation PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 42 yds · 5:1926% → 26%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
74.2%
Jalen Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 16Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
74.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+11
74.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 11 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
74.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 8 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+5
73.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 5 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
73.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+6
73.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
73.6%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
73.6%
Hassan Hall run for 6 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
73.5%
Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the Miss 39Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-2
73.8%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1675% → 74%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
74.9%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
74.7%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Hudson WolfeSimilar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
74.4%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
74.0%
Mac Brown punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4326% → 25%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
74.2%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
74.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
74.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+47
74.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Braylon Sanders at the OLEMISS 36 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Isaiah Woullard) to the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:4075% → 75%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
74.5%
Jerrion Ealy run for 9 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+2
75.0%
Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
74.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Orlando Umana) to the Miss 32Similar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+34
74.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 34 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
75.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chandler Jones) to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
75.6%
Matt Corral sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 17
OPP 30
0
75.2%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 17
OPP 30
0
74.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 17
OPP 30
+47
74.5%
Caden Costa 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:2124% → 23%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
75.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+18
75.9%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Mark Robinson) to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
75.5%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
75.4%
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the Lvile 40Similar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-5
75.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Bryan Hudson) to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+10
76.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 10 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-5
75.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 13:55
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
76.8%
Mark Vassett punt for 53 yds, downed at the Miss 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 2:2475% → 84%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
75.4%
Snoop Conner run for 11 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+28
75.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 28 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
76.6%
Matt Corral sacked by TEAM for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 40 OLE MISS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Matt Corral) to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+10
75.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Chase Rogers for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 6
50
+4
76.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Chase Rogers for 4 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+19
75.6%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Monty Montgomery) to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
76.9%
Snoop Conner run for 8 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+13
76.9%
Snoop Conner run for 13 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
83.7%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:5119% → 17%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
81.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marshon Ford) to the Lvile 7Similar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 16
OWN 7
0
81.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 16
OWN 7
-2
81.6%
Jalen Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 5Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 18
OWN 5
+8
82.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jalen Mitchell for 8 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
82.8%
Mark Vassett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Braylon Sanders at the Miss 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:5686% → 84%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
85.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
85.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-5
85.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+9
85.1%
Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 3
OPP 49
-15
84.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Nick Broeker) to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 18
OWN 36
+1
84.4%
Mac Brown punt for 43 yds , Braden Smith returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-15
82.8%
Malik Cunningham pass intercepted Deantre Prince return for 15 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:4785% → 92%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+34
85.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 34 yds to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.9%
Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Lvile 1Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.6%
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12FUMBLE
16 plays · 52 yds · 6:1910% → 9%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
90.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Marshon FordSimilar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
90.5%
Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the Lvile 23Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+18
91.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Lakia Henry) to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
90.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
90.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 1
50
+2
90.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
91.3%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 12
50
+9
91.7%
Braden Smith pass complete to Malik Cunningham for 9 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
91.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HarrellSimilar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+14
91.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 14 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
90.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+9
91.0%
Hassan Hall run for 9 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 2
OPP 19
0
91.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for no gain to the Miss 19Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 2
OPP 19
-6
91.5%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 25 Hassan Hall fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13END OF HALF
8 plays · 70 yds · 0:3794% → 97%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
94.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 22 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
94.7%
Matt Corral run for 8 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+7
94.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 7 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.9%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
94.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 11 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
97.2%
Caden Costa 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:154% → 6%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
96.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 17 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
96.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cole Bentley) to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+9
96.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 9 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+5
96.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
96.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
94.2%
James Turner 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 4:0695% → 98%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
94.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 17Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+22
94.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 22 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
95.3%
Matt Corral run for 10 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
95.5%
Matt Corral pass complete to John Rhys Plumlee for 5 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
95.6%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to John Rhys PlumleeSimilar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
95.5%
Matt Corral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+17
95.2%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 17 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
95.7%
Jerrion Ealy run for 7 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+7
95.8%
Jerrion Ealy run for 7 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
95.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+1
96.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Lvile 19Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 14
OPP 19
-1
96.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 15
OPP 20
0
96.0%
Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon SandersSimilar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 15
OPP 20
+38
98.2%
Caden Costa 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 6:111% → 6%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
98.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 8 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+5
98.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 5 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
99.0%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+12
99.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 12 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
99.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 9 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-9
98.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Caleb Chandler) to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 5 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+17
99.2%
Jalen Mitchell run for 17 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
99.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 7 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+4
99.2%
Jalen Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Miss 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
99.4%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Miss 6Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+2
99.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+4
93.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 4 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3996% → 100%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
96.4%
Snoop Conner run for 12 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
96.6%
Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+4
96.8%
Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
50
+6
96.9%
Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 6 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+24
97.3%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 24 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
97.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryce Ramsey) to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+19
97.4%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 19 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+11
99.5%
Snoop Conner run for 11 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
17 plays · 70 yds · 5:000% → 4%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.7%
Jalen Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-3
99.7%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Ashanti Cistrunk and MoMo Sanogo for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+10
99.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 3 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+28
99.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 28 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
99.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 11 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
99.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 2 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
99.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+15
99.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 15 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.7%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 4Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.7%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:3799% → 100%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
98.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 23 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+6
98.6%
Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+21
98.6%
Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 21 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
98.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+12
98.7%
Matt Corral run for 12 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 6 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:020% → 2%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
99.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 13 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
99.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 20 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 6 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
99.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 5 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler HarrellSimilar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
99.9%
Trevion Cooley run for 9 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
99.9%
Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
99.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 14 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 9 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:3999% → 100%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.1%
Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
99.2%
Matt Corral run for no gain to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+4
99.2%
Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+9
99.1%
Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 9 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
99.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 12 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.4%
Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-2
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:25
Matt Corral run for 6 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q2 7:12
Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q3 1:58
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 4 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com