Try the model
UTEP

UTEP 30 at New Mexico State 3

NMSU
2021 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2021 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreUTEP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:12 · Weston Eget pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 7 yds to the UTEP 24 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Home team on offense−51.4Score differential−37.9Pregame prior−3.0Garbage-time factor−19.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−10.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:49: Ronald Awatt run for 34 yds for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +0.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 13:48: Ethan Albertson 27 yd FG GOOD — UTEP win probability +6.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:03: Gavin Baechle 27 yd FG GOOD — UTEP win probability +2.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:48: Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 59 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +9.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 4:02: Gavin Baechle 33 yd FG GOOD — UTEP win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12UTEP made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:31NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:09UTEP 4th & 3 at NMSU 18, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:05NMSU 4th & 11 at UTEP 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:05UTEP 4th & 1 at NMSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.7%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:48NMSU 4th & 4 at UTEP 9, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.0%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−4.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:10NMSU 4th & 30 at NMSU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−1.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:29UTEP 4th & 21 at NMSU 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:50NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:44UTEP 4th & 3 at NMSU 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−0.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−5.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:48NMSU 4th & 6 at UTEP 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−1.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:40NMSU 4th & 5 at UTEP 20, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−5.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:02UTEP 4th & 5 at NMSU 15, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:44NMSU 4th & 20 at NMSU 35, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:12UTEP 4th & 6 at NMSU 35, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:12NMSU 4th & 2 at UTEP 31, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:54NMSU 4th & 8 at UTEP 8, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:45NMSU 4th & 25 at UTEP 25, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:25UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 7, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:51NMSU 4th & 10 at midfield, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:37UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:48UTEP Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2935% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
35.3%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to O'Maury Samuels for 14 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
35.3%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Thomaz WhitfordSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
35.3%
O'Maury Samuels run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
35.3%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
35.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5464% → 65%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
35.9%
Hardison,Gavin pass complete to Cowing,Jacob for 50 yards to the NMS30 (Kirklin,Devlin) PENALTY UTE Holding (Deharo,Bobby) 10 yards from UTE20 to UTE10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+2
35.9%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the UTEP 8Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 22
OWN 8
+72
35.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 72 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
35.7%
Deion Hankins run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+8
35.7%
Deion Hankins run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+8
35.7%
Deion Hankins run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
34.9%
Deion Hankins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.5%
Jonah Johnson run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1765% → 65%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
34.9%
Deion Hankins run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+2
34.9%
Ronald Awatt run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
35.0%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Justin GarrettSimilar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
35.1%
Gavin Baechle 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 4:0435% → 36%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
35.3%
UTEP Penalty, Roughing The Passer (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
35.7%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared WyattSimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
35.7%
UTEP Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Dennis Barnes) to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
35.9%
Jonah Johnson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+16
36.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 16 yds to the UTEP 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
36.1%
Samuels,O'Maury rush for 2 yards gain to the UTE17 (Hayward,Breon; Thompson,Blake) PENALTY NMS Holding (Doxtater,Sage) 10 yards from UTE19 to UTE29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 20
OPP 29
0
35.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 20
OPP 29
+7
35.9%
Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 13
OPP 22
+2
35.6%
Jonah Johnson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 20
OPP 29
0
35.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 20
OPP 29
+7
35.9%
Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 13
OPP 22
+2
35.6%
Jonah Johnson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
35.7%
Ethan Albertson 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:1665% → 66%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
35.2%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 36 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
34.3%
Ronald Awatt run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
34.3%
Ronald Awatt run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
34.4%
Ronald Awatt run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
34.9%
Gavin Hardison run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
33.9%
Ronald Awatt run for 34 yds for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
33.9%
Ronald Awatt run for 34 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 3:0136% → 31%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
35.6%
UTEP Penalty, Personal Foul (Breon Hayward) to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
36.5%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Jadrian Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
36.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Dominic GicintoSimilar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+15
35.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 15 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
37.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared Wyatt for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, Pass Interference Roughing The Passer (Jadrian Taylor) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
36.5%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Jadrian Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
36.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Dominic GicintoSimilar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+15
35.7%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 15 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
37.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared Wyatt for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, Pass Interference Roughing The Passer (Jadrian Taylor) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
38.0%
O'Maury Samuels run for 10 yds to the UTEP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
38.0%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Dominic GicintoSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
38.0%
O'Maury Samuels run for no gain to the UTEP 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+6
37.1%
Jonah Johnson run for 6 yds to the UTEP 9Similar
Q2 13:48
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
30.8%
Ethan Albertson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:2271% → 72%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
28.7%
Deion Hankins run for 19 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
28.1%
Ronald Awatt run for 3 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
27.6%
Gavin Hardison pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 1 yds · 2:0829% → 26%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
29.3%
Johnson,Jonah pass complete to Garcia-Castaneda,Isaiah for 66 yards to the UTE00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 12:18 PENALTY NMS Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Doxtater,Sage) 5 yards from NMS34 to NMS29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+11
29.0%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 11 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
30.0%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
30.1%
Jonah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
30.1%
Jonah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
28.1%
Johnson,Jonah pass incomplete QB hurried by Williams,Deylon PENALTY NMS Intentional Grounding (Johnson,Jonah). NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 20
OWN 35
0
26.9%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Robert Downs IIISimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 20
OWN 35
0
26.7%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Dominic GicintoSimilar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 20
OWN 35
-5
26.7%
Carlson,Josh punt 63 yards to the UTE02 PENALTY NMS Illegal Formation (Johnson,Jonah) 5 yards from NMS35 to NMS30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 25
OWN 30
-5
26.7%
PENALTY NMS Illegal Substitution 5 yards from NMS30 to NMS25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 30
OWN 25
0
26.4%
Josh Carlson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 16 yds · 2:4174% → 76%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 11
OWN 35
-5
26.1%
PENALTY UTE False Start (Deharo,Bobby) 5 yards from UTE35 to UTE31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+19
26.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
50
+13
25.6%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 13 yds to the NEWMEXST 37 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
25.5%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-10
25.6%
Awatt,Ronald rush for 9 yards gain to the NMS29 (McCullough,D.J.; Union,Torren) PENALTY UTE Holding (Henry,Zuri) 10 yards from NMS38 to NMS48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
25.5%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-10
25.6%
Awatt,Ronald rush for 9 yards gain to the NMS29 (McCullough,D.J.; Union,Torren) PENALTY UTE Holding (Henry,Zuri) 10 yards from NMS38 to NMS48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 21
OPP 48
0
23.4%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Justin GarrettSimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 21
OPP 48
0
23.7%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Justin GarrettSimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 21
OPP 48
0
23.7%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Justin GarrettSimilar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 21
OPP 48
0
24.2%
Joshua Sloan punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:3927% → 25%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
26.6%
O'Maury Samuels run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+3
26.8%
O'Maury Samuels run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
26.8%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Robert Downs IIISimilar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
26.8%
Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 17
OWN 11
+4
26.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 4 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 17
OWN 11
+4
26.5%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 4 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
25.4%
Josh Carlson punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12FG
18 plays · 58 yds · 4:5078% → 87%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
22.4%
Ronald Awatt run for 11 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
21.7%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+5
21.6%
Deion Hankins run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+15
21.6%
Hardison,Gavin pass incomplete to Cowing,Jacob PENALTY NMS Pass Interference (Union,Torren) 15 yards from NMS49 to NMS34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
21.0%
Ronald Awatt run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
20.9%
Ronald Awatt run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
21.1%
Deion Hankins run for no gain to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
20.9%
Ronald Awatt run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
21.1%
Deion Hankins run for no gain to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+6
19.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 6 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
17.8%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+8
17.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 8 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+2
18.0%
James Tupou run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
17.8%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Walter Dawn Jr.Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
12.9%
Gavin Baechle 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
12.7%
Gavin Baechle 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1282% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.5%
Ronald Awatt run for 2 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
18.4%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 14 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
9.1%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 59 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:0813% → 8%
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
12.7%
Juwaun Price run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
13.7%
Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+7
13.8%
Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
14.1%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
14.0%
O'Maury Samuels run for 4 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
14.1%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q3 13:48
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+16
13.9%
Jonah Johnson pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 16 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
15.2%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Robert Downs IIISimilar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
14.9%
Juwaun Price run for 6 yds to the UTEP 19Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+1
14.7%
Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 5
OPP 20
0
7.6%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:3894% → 98%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
5.6%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 8 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
5.6%
Quardraiz Wadley run for no gain to the UTEP 28Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-5
5.7%
PENALTY UTE False Start (Thompson,Trent) 5 yards from UTE28 to UTE23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+16
5.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 16 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
5.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Targeting (Chris Bell) to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
5.3%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+11
5.0%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
5.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+1
5.2%
Calvin Brownholtz run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+11
2.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Quardraiz Wadley for 11 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
1.8%
Gavin Baechle 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 10 yds · 3:182% → 1%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
1.5%
Jonah Johnson sacked by Praise Amaewhule for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 19 Jonah Johnson fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Stephawn Townsend , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+1
1.4%
O'Maury Samuels run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+15
1.4%
Johnson,Jonah pass complete to Samuels,O'Maury for 5 yards loss to the NMS15 (Knight,Tyrice) PENALTY UTE Roughing The Passer (Amaewhule,Praise) 15 yards from NMS20 to NMS35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
1.5%
Johnson,Jonah pass complete to Downs III,Robert for 6 yards to the NMS41 (Theard,Gary; Richardson,Torey) PENALTY UTE Holding (Richardson,Torey) 10 yards from NMS35 to NMS45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
1.6%
Johnson,Jonah pass complete to Wyatt,Jared for 40 yards to the UTE15, End Of Play PENALTY NMS Pass Interference (Wyatt,Jared) 15 yards from NMS45 to NMS30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+5
1.5%
Juwaun Price run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 20
OWN 35
0
1.4%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Robert Downs IIISimilar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 20
OWN 35
0
1.4%
Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 20
OWN 35
0
1.0%
Josh Carlson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:4899% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
1.0%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 19 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
1.0%
Calvin Brownholtz run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+5
0.9%
Calvin Brownholtz run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+6
0.6%
Calvin Brownholtz run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
0.6%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
0.6%
Calvin Brownholtz pass incomplete to Josh FarrSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
0.6%
Calvin Brownholtz pass incomplete to Tyrin SmithSimilar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
0.7%
Calvin Brownholtz pass incomplete to Miles BanksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:180% → 0%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
0.3%
Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
0.2%
Weston Eget pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-CastanedaSimilar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
0.2%
Weston Eget run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
0.3%
Eget,Weston pass incomplete to Warner,Terrell PENALTY UTE Pass Interference (Barnes,Dennis) 15 yards from NMS46 to UTE39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
0.3%
Alex Escobar run for 7 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
0.3%
Juwaun Price run for no gain to the UTEP 32Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+1
0.3%
Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the UTEP 31Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+7
0.3%
Weston Eget pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 7 yds to the UTEP 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
0.3%
Eget,Weston pass incomplete to Downs III,Robert, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UTE Pass Interference (Barnes,Dennis) 15 yards from UTE24 to UTE09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
0.5%
O'Maury Samuels run for 1 yd to the UTEP 8Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
0.4%
Weston Eget pass incomplete to Dominic GicintoSimilar
Q4 12:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
0.4%
Weston Eget pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q4 7:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
0.1%
Weston Eget pass incomplete to Juwaun PriceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
0.4%
Willie Eldridge run for 3 yds to the UTEP 11Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+1
0.4%
Calvin Brownholtz run for 1 yd to the UTEP 12Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 6
OWN 12
0
0.3%
Calvin Brownholtz pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
0.2%
O'Maury Samuels run for 3 yds to the UTEP 12Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-13
0.1%
Weston Eget sacked by James Neal for a loss of 13 yards to the UTEP 25Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 25
0
0.1%
Weston Eget pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q4 4:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 25
+19
0.1%
Weston Eget run for 19 yds to the UTEP 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
0.3%
Willie Eldridge run for 1 yd to the UTEP 7Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+2
0.3%
Willie Eldridge run for 2 yds to the UTEP 9Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+2
0.3%
Willie Eldridge run for 2 yds to the UTEP 7Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 9
OWN 7
0
0.3%
Joshua Sloan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Robert Downs III at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:340% → 0%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
50
0
0.1%
Juwaun Price run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
50
0
0.1%
Weston Eget pass incomplete to Robert Downs IIISimilar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 10
50
0
0.1%
Weston Eget pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 10
50
0
0.0%
Weston Eget pass incomplete to Dominic GicintoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
50
+3
0.1%
Isaiah Bravo run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
0.1%
Isaiah Bravo run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+1
0.1%
Isaiah Bravo run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:48
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 59 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)
-9.2
FG · Q2 13:48
Ethan Albertson 27 yd FG GOOD
-6.3
FG · Q2 0:03
Gavin Baechle 27 yd FG GOOD
-2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com