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BGSU

Bowling Green 6 at Tennessee 38

TENN
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2021 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:33 · Matt Naranjo punt for 48 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 181Pregame prior+4.1Home team on offense+36.8Score differential+30.7Garbage-time factor+12.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+15.7Blowout margin+17.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:25: Joe Milton III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — BGSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:54: Nate Needham 42 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:16: Nate Needham 50 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:53: Joe Milton III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +1.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:51: Tiyon Evans run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BGSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 13:24BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:53BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:15BGSU 4th & 16 at BGSU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:18TENN 4th & 19 at BGSU 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:54BGSU 4th & 4 at TENN 24, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:32TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 36, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:16BGSU 4th & 23 at TENN 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00TENN 4th & 2 at midfield, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.5%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:10BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 13, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:05TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 46, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:09BGSU 4th & 16 at BGSU 8, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:06BGSU 4th & 2 at TENN 42, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:55TENN 4th & 2 at BGSU 36, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:02BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 36, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:04BGSU 4th & 1 at TENN 33, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:21TENN 4th & 1 at BGSU 19, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:36TENN 4th & 19 at BGSU 26, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:56BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 24, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:33BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 18, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:25TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:52TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:53TENN Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:51TENN Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:11TENN Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:312% → 2%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
98.4%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
98.4%
Jhaylin Embry run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
98.4%
Terion Stewart run for no gain to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 14:55
4TH & 2
OWN 35
-5
98.4%
PENALTY BGS Delay Of Game (Naranjo,Matt) 5 yards from BGS35 to BGS30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
98.3%
Matt Naranjo punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 2:5998% → 98%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
98.3%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+4
98.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jacob Warren for 4 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+7
98.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 7 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
98.3%
Jabari Small run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+3
98.3%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
98.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 5 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+10
98.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 10 yds to the BwGrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
98.3%
Joe Milton III run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
98.3%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+10
98.3%
PENALTY BGS Holding (Sheppard,Marcus) 10 yards from BGS23 to BGS13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
98.3%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+6
98.3%
Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
98.1%
Joe Milton III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:262% → 2%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
98.0%
Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+1
98.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 1 yd to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
98.1%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
97.9%
Matt Naranjo punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:0198% → 98%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
97.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Princeton Fant for 6 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
98.0%
Joe Milton III run for 5 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.0%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
97.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 4
50
+12
97.9%
Joe Milton III run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+30
98.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 30 yds to the BwGrn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
98.0%
Jabari Small run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.1%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:322% → 2%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
98.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Taron Keith for no gain to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+13
98.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jaedyn McKinstry for 13 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.0%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Matt McDonald) to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 16
OWN 22
0
98.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Levi GazarekSimilar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 16
OWN 22
0
98.0%
Terion Stewart run for no gain to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 16
OWN 22
0
97.8%
Matt Naranjo punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:5798% → 98%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.9%
Tiyon Evans run for 6 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
97.9%
Tiyon Evans run for 3 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
97.9%
Tiyon Evans run for 4 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
97.9%
Tiyon Evans run for 3 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+19
98.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 19 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
98.0%
Milton III,Joe pass complete to Jones Jr.,Velus for 4 yards to the BGS36 (Sheppard,Marcus) PENALTY TEN Holding (Wright,Darnell) 10 yards from BGS40 to BGS50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 20
50
+4
97.9%
Tiyon Evans run for 4 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 24
OWN 46
+8
97.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 8 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 16
OPP 46
-3
97.9%
Joe Milton III sacked by Karl Brooks for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 19
OPP 49
0
97.6%
Paxton Brooks punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BwGrn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 5:063% → 4%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
97.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Cavon Croom for 7 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+12
97.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Cavon Croom for 12 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Jaison PattersonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 1 yd to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+31
97.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 31 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
97.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 7 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+8
97.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 8 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
97.3%
Terion Stewart run for no gain to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+6
97.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Cavon Croom for 6 yds to the Tenn 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
97.3%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Cavon CroomSimilar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
96.4%
Nate Needham 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1697% → 96%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
96.7%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
96.7%
Tiyon Evans run for no gain to the Tenn 31Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+5
96.6%
Joe Milton III run for 5 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
96.4%
Paxton Brooks punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 7:164% → 5%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
96.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 5 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+24
96.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 24 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
96.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Cavon Croom for 11 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
96.0%
Terion Stewart run for 8 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+2
95.8%
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
95.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 8 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+3
95.8%
Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the Tenn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
95.8%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 2 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+3
95.8%
Jhaylin Embry run for 3 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 11
OPP 20
-5
96.1%
PENALTY BGS False Start (Banks-Wall,Jeremiah) 5 yards from TEN20 to TEN25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 16
OPP 25
-7
95.9%
Matt McDonald sacked by Tyler Baron for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 23
OPP 32
+50
95.0%
Nate Needham 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:1096% → 95%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
95.5%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Princeton FantSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
95.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jabari Small for 5 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-2
95.3%
Joe Milton III sacked by Walter Haire for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+5
95.1%
Milton III,Joe pass incomplete PENALTY BGS Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TEN45 to TEN50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
50
0
95.3%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 1:5895% → 97%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
95.0%
Jabari Small run for 7 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+17
95.1%
Jabari Small run for 17 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
95.4%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
95.4%
Joe Milton III run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+7
95.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Targeting (Davon Ferguson) to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
95.5%
Tiyon Evans run for 21 yds to the BwGrn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
95.5%
Tiyon Evans run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.9%
Joe Milton III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:434% → 4%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
96.4%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+1
96.4%
Taron Keith run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+4
96.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 4 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
96.4%
Matt Naranjo punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0597% → 96%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
96.9%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
96.8%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-5
96.7%
PENALTY TEN False Start (Hyatt,Jalin) 5 yards from BGS49 to TEN46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 13
OWN 46
0
96.6%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to JaVonta PaytonSimilar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
96.4%
Paxton Brooks punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Davon Ferguson at the BwGrn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:564% → 4%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
96.2%
Jhaylin Embry run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 11
OWN 13
-5
96.2%
PENALTY BGS False Start (Stewart,Terion) 5 yards from BGS13 to BGS08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 16
OWN 8
0
96.4%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 16
OWN 8
0
96.5%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 16
OWN 8
0
96.4%
Matt Naranjo punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:1897% → 99%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
97.0%
Tiyon Evans run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
97.0%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+8
96.9%
Tiyon Evans run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
97.0%
Tiyon Evans run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+15
97.0%
Milton III,Joe pass incomplete to Tillman,Cedric PENALTY BGS Pass Interference (Dabney,Sy) 15 yards from BGS34 to BGS19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
98.8%
Tiyon Evans run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16DOWNS
13 plays · 33 yds · 4:451% → 1%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Cavon CroomSimilar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 12 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
98.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jaedyn McKinstry for 2 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-5
98.6%
PENALTY BGS Illegal Substitution (McKinstry,Jaedyn) 5 yards from BGS39 to BGS34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+9
98.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Cavon Croom for 9 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+7
98.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
50
+7
98.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jaedyn McKinstry for 7 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
98.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 1 yd to the Tenn 42Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
98.7%
Terion Stewart run for no gain to the Tenn 42Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
98.9%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Andrew BenchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 9
OWN 43
+13
99.3%
Joe Milton III run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.3%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
99.3%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+6
99.3%
Joe Milton III run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+1
99.4%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 6 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
99.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
99.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Jamal JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 4
OWN 41
-5
99.1%
PENALTY BGS Delay Of Game (Wardzala,Jack) 5 yards from BGS41 to BGS36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
99.2%
Matt Naranjo punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19FUMBLE
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4099% → 100%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
99.4%
Jabari Small run for 12 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.5%
Joe Milton III run for 6 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
99.5%
Tiyon Evans run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
99.5%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-12
99.5%
Joe Milton III sacked by Darren Anders for a loss of 12 yards to the Tenn 42 Joe Milton III fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Darren Anders , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
99.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jhaylin Embry for 7 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
99.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+2
99.1%
Matt McDonald run for 2 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
99.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Terion Stewart for no gain to the Tenn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21FG
16 plays · 41 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
99.5%
Jabari Small run for 11 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
99.5%
Tiyon Evans run for 4 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+13
99.5%
Tiyon Evans run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.6%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
99.5%
Tiyon Evans run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.6%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+5
99.6%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
99.6%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+2
99.6%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
99.6%
Jabari Small run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 1
OPP 8
0
99.6%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-10
99.6%
Small,Jabari rush for 8 yards gain to the BGS00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:11 PENALTY TEN Holding (Carvin,Jerome) 10 yards from BGS08 to BGS18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+3
99.6%
Joe Milton III run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 5 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jerome Carvin) to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 19
OPP 26
0
99.6%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 19
OPP 26
+43
99.8%
Chase McGrath 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:360% → 0%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.8%
Nick Mosley run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+1
99.8%
Nick Mosley run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+4
99.8%
Nick Mosley run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Matt Naranjo punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
99.9%
Milton III,Joe pass incomplete to Jones Jr.,Velus PENALTY BGS Pass Interference (Day,Patrick) 15 yards from TEN30 to TEN45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+5
99.9%
Marcus Pierce Jr. run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Marcus Pierce Jr. run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+40
100.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 40 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
100.0%
Nick Mosley run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+6
100.0%
Nick Mosley run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+3
100.0%
Nick Mosley run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
100.0%
Matt Naranjo punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25FUMBLE
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
100.0%
Marcus Pierce Jr. run for 5 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+5
100.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Grant Frerking for 5 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
100.0%
Marcus Pierce Jr. run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
100.0%
Marcus Pierce Jr. run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
100.0%
Marcus Pierce Jr. run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
100.0%
Marcus Pierce Jr. run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
100.0%
Marcus Pierce Jr. run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26END OF HALF
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+24
100.0%
Nick Mosley run for 24 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
100.0%
Nick Mosley run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:51
Tiyon Evans run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q3 12:53
Joe Milton III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+1.4
FG · Q2 1:16
Nate Needham 50 yd FG GOOD
-0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com