Try the model
LT

Louisiana Tech 34 at Mississippi State 35

MSST
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Davis Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-9MSST 41.9%Jacob Barnes 20 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 14 · Q3 3:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:06 · Jacob Barnes 20 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Pregame prior+16.1Home team on offense−16.9Score differential−7.4Garbage-time factor−6.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:06: Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 24 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +9.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:50: Trey Baldwin 35 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Barnes Kick) — LT win probability +15.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:01: Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +22.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:24: Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +18.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 3:37: Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 15 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — MSST win probability +31.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 12:29MSST 4th & 12 at LT 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:40LT 4th & 10 at LT 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:28MSST 4th & 22 at MSST 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:53MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:33LT 4th & 7 at MSST 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    19.2%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:23MSST 4th & 20 at MSST 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−3.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:53LT 4th & 16 at MSST 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    33.4%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:55LT 4th & 8 at LT 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:51MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:56LT 4th & 4 at MSST 42, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%−2.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:06LT 4th & 2 at MSST 2, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−12.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:47MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−2.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:11LT 4th & 3 at MSST 15, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−8.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:49LT 4th & 6 at LT 29, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:07LT 4th & 5 at LT 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−1.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:00LT 4th & 11 at MSST 43, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.7 ptsWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%−6.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%
    28% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−9.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00LT 4th & 8 at MSST 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−30.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−38.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 4LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 0:35MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00LT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:55LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:06LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:50LT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:01MSST Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:24MSST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.7%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:37MSST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:2392% → 91%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
91.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+21
91.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 21 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
91.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the LaTch 32Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-10
91.8%
Rogers,Will pass incomplete to Johnson,Dillon PENALTY MSU Holding (Johnson,Kwatrivous) 10 yards from LAT32 to LAT42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 20
OPP 42
0
91.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 20
OPP 42
+8
91.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 8 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q1 12:29
4TH & 12
OPP 34
+52
91.3%
Brandon Ruiz 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:399% → 9%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
91.3%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Griffin HebertSimilar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
91.3%
Kendall,Austin pass complete to Harris,Smoke for 1 yard loss to the LAT33 (Duncan,Collin) PENALTY MSU Offside (Charlton,Randy) 5 yards from LAT34 to LAT39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
91.1%
Austin Kendall pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:4191% → 91%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
91.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 11 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
91.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+6
91.3%
Will Rogers run for 6 yds to the LaTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
91.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the LaTch 10Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+3
91.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the LaTch 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
91.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the LaTch 1Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:259% → 9%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
90.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 2 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-10
90.9%
Kendall,Austin rush for 2 yards gain to the LAT27 (Forbes,Emmanuel) PENALTY LAT Holding (Fournier,Christopher) 10 yards from LAT25 to LAT15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 18
OWN 15
+1
90.9%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 1 yd to the LaTch 14Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 19
OWN 14
+9
91.0%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 9 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
90.7%
Cesar Barajas punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 3:1291% → 90%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
90.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 1 yd to the MisSt 16Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+17
90.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 17 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
90.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
90.5%
Will Rogers run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-13
90.4%
Will Rogers sacked by Tyler Grubbs for a loss of 13 yards to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 22
OWN 21
0
89.5%
Tucker Day punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · -11 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
89.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for loss of 11 yds to the LaTch 33. Fumble by Williams. Recovered by Miss. StSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:4590% → 92%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
90.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 1
OPP 24
-10
90.3%
Rogers,Will pass complete to Griffin,Lideatrick for 20 yards to the LAT04 (Williamson,BeeJay) PENALTY MSU Holding (Cross,Charles) 10 yards from LAT24 to LAT34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+14
90.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 14 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
92.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 20 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:359% → 11%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.4%
Greg Garner run for 3 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+72
89.2%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Bub Means for 72 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:0790% → 89%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
89.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete pass complete to for 14 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
89.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 5 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
89.2%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Johnson,Dillon) 5 yards from MSU34 to MSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
88.6%
Tucker Day punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 0:5811% → 15%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
88.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+2
88.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+59
84.7%
Austin Kendall run for 59 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 41 yds · 0:0086% → 87%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
86.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 25 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
86.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
86.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+8
86.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 8 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST down Fumble by Marks. Recovered by LATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:4517% → 18%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
83.3%
Greg Garner run for 1 yd to the LaTch 40Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
83.5%
Kendall,Austin pass incomplete to Emilus,Samuel PENALTY MSU Offside (Brule,Aaron) 5 yards from LAT40 to LAT45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
83.0%
Greg Garner run for 2 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+8
83.1%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 8 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
82.8%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
82.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 8 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 2
OPP 37
-5
82.8%
PENALTY LAT Illegal Substitution 5 yards from MSU37 to MSU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
83.0%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Smoke HarrisSimilar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
81.7%
Cesar Barajas punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jaden Walley at the MisSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 2:1084% → 81%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
83.5%
Rogers,Will pass complete to Polk,Makai for 7 yards to the MSU18 (Woods,Cedric) PENALTY MSU Holding (Johnson,Kwatrivous) 5 yards from MSU11 to MSU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+3
83.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the MisSt 3Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 18
OWN 3
0
83.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 18
OWN 3
+2
82.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for loss of 2 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 20
OWN 1
0
81.2%
Tucker Day punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 1:1722% → 31%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
78.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+1
78.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+24
69.1%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 24 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2473% → 71%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
73.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
73.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 10 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
74.5%
Rogers,Will pass complete to Marks,Jo'quavious for 5 yards to the LAT49 (Buchanan,Baylen) PENALTY MSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Jones,Kameron) 5 yards from MSU46 to MSU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 15
OWN 41
-2
71.3%
Will Rogers sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 39 Will Rogers fumbled, recovered by LaTch Levi Bell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:4934% → 33%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
65.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-5
65.5%
PENALTY LAT False Start (Fournier,Christopher) 5 yards from MSU35 to MSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 11
OPP 40
0
66.1%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Austin Kendall) to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 20
OPP 49
+4
68.3%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 16
OPP 45
0
67.5%
Cesar Barajas punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17END OF HALF
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:5369% → 70%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
68.9%
Will Rogers sacked by Levi Bell for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+10
68.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 10 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+23
66.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 23 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
69.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 15 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:0533% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the LaTch 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
67.1%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Marcus Williams Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Tahj Magee for 12 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
65.7%
Greg Garner run for 5 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
64.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 3 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
65.6%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Tahj MageeSimilar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
63.5%
Cesar Barajas punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0464% → 60%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
64.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 7 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+7
65.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 7 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
65.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-5
67.3%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Griffin,Lideatrick) 5 yards from MSU42 to MSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
65.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
61.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete pass incomplete fumbled, recovered by LaTch , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:51
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
60.3%
Tucker Day punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:5540% → 46%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.0%
Kendall,Austin pass complete to Harris,Smoke for 11 yards to the LAT36 (Peters,Fred) PENALTY LAT Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Hebert,Griffin) 5 yards from LAT25 to LAT20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
60.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
57.6%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Griffin HebertSimilar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-5
58.2%
PENALTY LAT False Start (Means,Bub) 5 yards from LAT42 to LAT37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+15
60.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 15 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
57.0%
Austin Kendall run for 6 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
56.8%
Harlan Dixon run for no gain to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
57.5%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Griffin HebertSimilar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
53.8%
Cesar Barajas punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 31 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+30
57.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 30 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 3:1849% → 58%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
50.8%
Keyon Brooks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+22
50.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Bub Means for 22 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
50.0%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Keyon Brooks for 10 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
50.0%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Samuel EmilusSimilar
Q3 6:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
50.0%
Keyon Brooks run for no gain to the MisSt 7Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
50.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 5 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
41.9%
Jacob Barnes 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23INT TD
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:1142% → 27%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
42.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+17
42.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 17 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-35
26.5%
Trey Baldwin 35 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Barnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0325% → 21%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
25.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 0:47
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
21.4%
Tucker Day punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:3683% → 93%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
17.4%
Kendall,Austin pass incomplete to Magee,Tahj QB hurried by Young,Cameron PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Green,Jalen) 15 yards from LAT29 to LAT44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
15.2%
Austin Kendall run for 5 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+29
15.2%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 29 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
14.4%
Austin Kendall run for 7 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 15
0
14.4%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Griffin HebertSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
14.8%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Smoke HarrisSimilar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+33
6.6%
Jacob Barnes 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:598% → 32%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
7.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 15 yds to the LaTch 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
9.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the LaTch 1Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1283% → 86%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.7%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Griffin HebertSimilar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
17.0%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Griffin HebertSimilar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
14.5%
Cesar Barajas punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 3:2525% → 47%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
24.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 9 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+3
26.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
25.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 7 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
26.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
50
+5
27.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+40
28.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 40 yds to the LaTch 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
46.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1772% → 74%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.5%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
29.1%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Tre Harris for no gain to the LaTch 25Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.3%
PENALTY MSU Offside (Groce Jr.,Rodney) 5 yards from LAT25 to LAT30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
28.5%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
26.4%
Cesar Barajas punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 30TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:3040% → 74%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
39.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
40.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 8 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
40.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 18 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
43.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+15
74.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 15 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 31FG
17 plays · 47 yds · 3:3736% → 24%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
64.1%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 8 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
61.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
62.3%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 22 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
58.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
58.2%
Austin Kendall pass incomplete to Smoke HarrisSimilar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+2
59.1%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 2 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 5
OPP 37
-6
62.6%
PENALTY LAT False Start (Hollins,Kellton) 6 yards from MSU37 to MSU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 11
OPP 43
+13
68.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 13 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
57.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 12
OPP 32
0
57.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+4
63.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
76.3%
Jacob Barnes 46 yd FG MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:37
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 15 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+31
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+23.7
TD · Q4 12:01
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+22.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com