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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:57 · Will Spiers punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:58: Christopher Smith 74 Yd Interception Return (Jack Podlesny Kick) — UGA win probability +13.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:58: Jake Camarda kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — UGA win probability +6.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 9:33: Will Shipley run for 2 yds to the Geo 31 — CLEM win probability +6.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q4 9:08: B.T. Potter 22 Yd Field Goal — CLEM win probability +9.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:44: Zamir White run for 4 yds to the Geo 49 — UGA win probability +10.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 9:42UGA 4th & 7 at CLEM 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snapGo for it41.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.7%average punt
- Q1 8:14CLEM 4th & 15 at CLEM 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snapGo for it57.2%−0.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.7%average punt
- Q1 6:31UGA 4th & 8 at CLEM 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snapGo for it41.8%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.9%average punt
- Q1 4:57CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snapGo for it57.2%−0.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.7%average punt
- Q2 14:19UGA 4th & 5 at CLEM 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snapGo for it42.7%−0.240% to convertField goalTheir call42.9%77% to makePunt40.1%−2.7average punt
- Q2 9:14CLEM 4th & 5 at UGA 44, tiedClose callPunted · 59.5% before the snapGo for it59.5%41% to convertField goal58.6%−0.927% to makePuntTheir call59.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 6:28UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 34, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 43.5% before the snapGo for it44.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.9%−1.3average punt
- Q2 5:32CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snapGo for it55.3%−1.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.8%average punt
- Q2 0:53CLEM 4th & 15 at UGA 42, down 7Close callPunted · 43.3% before the snapGo for it42.5%−0.817% to convertField goal43.3%30% to makePuntTheir call42.8%−0.5average punt
- Q3 11:24CLEM 4th & 15 at CLEM 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snapGo for it37.8%−3.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.2%average punt
- Q3 7:29CLEM 4th & 19 at UGA 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snapGo for it37.0%−2.811% to convertField goal38.5%−1.230% to makePuntTheir call39.7%average punt
- Q3 2:38UGA 4th & 5 at CLEM 5, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.5% before the snapGo for it67.7%−0.233% to convertField goalTheir call67.8%92% to makePunt58.9%−8.9average punt
- Q3 0:10CLEM 4th & 23 at CLEM 10, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snapGo for it19.9%−3.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.2%average punt
- Q4 12:56UGA 4th & 12 at UGA 46, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snapGo for it72.7%−2.623% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.2%average punt
- Q4 9:08CLEM 4th & 5 at UGA 5, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snapGo for it19.8%33% to convertField goalTheir call19.2%−0.692% to makePunt10.0%−9.8average punt
- Q4 7:36UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 33, up 7Close callPunted · 77.7% before the snapGo for it78.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 4:48CLEM 4th & 5 at UGA 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.7%41% to convertField goal16.8%−3.925% to makePunt17.0%−3.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 2:58UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.7%97% to makeGo for two53.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1PUNT12 plays · 27 yds · 5:0450% → 49%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Brock Bowers for 7 yds to the Geo 32Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
50.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 4 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+1
50.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kendall Milton for 1 yd to the Clem 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2151% → 51%
Q1 9:06
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
51.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Davis Allen, broken up by Devonte WyattSimilar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-8
50.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei sacked by Nolan Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the Clem 5Similar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 15
OWN 5
+7
50.5%
Will Spiers punt for 51 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for 7 yds to the Clem 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4150% → 49%
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
50.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 4 yds to the Clem 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2851% → 51%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
51.4%
Uiagalelei, D.J. pass incomplete to Ross, Justyn, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Ringo, Kelee) 15 yards to the CLEMSON17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
51.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 6 yds to the Clem 23Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 4
OWN 23
-6
51.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei sacked by Nakobe Dean for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 17Similar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
50.7%
Will Spiers punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5MISSED FG16 plays · 44 yds · 5:3149% → 49%
Q1 4:33
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+10
51.3%
Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Bowers, Brock, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Phillips, Jalyn) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+12
50.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Brock Bowers for 12 yds to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
49.9%
Zamir White run for 2 yds to the Clem 24 Zamir White fumbled, forced by LaVonta Bentley, recovered by Geo Zamir White for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
49.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Brock Bowers for 2 yds to the Clem 22Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 8
OPP 22
-5
50.2%
Daniels, JT pass complete to Burton, Jermaine for 6 yards to the CLEMSON16, PENALTY GEORGIA ineligible downfield on pass (Jones, Broderick) 5 yards to the CLEMSON27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 13
OPP 27
+8
50.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 8 yds to the Clem 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 36 yds · 4:5853% → 54%
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
52.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 3 yds to the Clem 23Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+11
52.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 11 yds to the Clem 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+15
53.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 15 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
55.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to E.J. Williams for no gain to the Geo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 2:3848% → 49%
Q2 8:36
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+8
51.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 8 yds to the Geo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to John FitzPatrick for no gain to the Geo 25Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 8 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
50.8%
Jake Camarda punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Will Taylor at the Clem 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8FUMBLE4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5254% → 52%
Q2 5:32
4TH & 9
OWN 16
+1
51.9%
Will Spiers punt for 35 yds , Kendall Milton returns for 1 yd to the 50 yard line Kendall Milton fumbled, recovered by ClemSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9INT TD5 plays · 20 yds · 2:2757% → 44%
CLEMDrive 10PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 2:0140% → 39%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Braden Galloway, broken up by Lewis CineSimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
40.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 24 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
42.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Kobe Pace for 6 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+8
42.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 8 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · 7 yds · 0:3163% → 64%
CLEMDrive 12PUNT11 plays · 20 yds · 3:3140% → 36%
Q3 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
39.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Justyn Ross, broken up by Devonte WyattSimilar
Q3 14:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
38.1%
Uiagalelei, D.J. pass incomplete to Ross, Justyn, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Dean, Nakobe) 10 yards to the CLEMSON36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+11
39.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
50
+5
42.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 5 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-8
40.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei sacked by Nakobe Dean for a loss of 8 yards to the Clem 45Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
36.3%
Will Spiers punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13INT5 plays · 15 yds · 1:4163% → 63%
Q3 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+13
36.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Zamir White for 13 yds to the Geo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Brock Bowers for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-3
36.7%
JT Daniels pass intercepted Baylon Spector return for 3 yds to the Geo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 2:0443% → 35%
Q3 8:55
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-8
42.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei sacked by Jalen Carter for a loss of 8 yards to the Geo 39Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 16
OPP 39
-3
37.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei sacked by Adam Anderson for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 42Similar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 19
OPP 42
0
35.4%
Will Spiers punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15FG12 plays · 81 yds · 4:4366% → 74%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
32.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 21 yds to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 3
OPP 36
-3
29.9%
Kendall Milton run for 7 yds to the Clem 29 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Robinson) to the Clem 39Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+9
29.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 9 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+15
27.2%
Daniels, JT pass incomplete to Mitchell, Adonai, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Jones, Sheridan) 15 yards to the CLEMSON8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q3 3:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
27.2%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Jermaine Burton, broken up by Xavier ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
27.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 3 yds to the Clem 5Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
27.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Brock Bowers, broken up by Andrew MukubaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16PUNT6 plays · -13 yds · 2:1725% → 21%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
25.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Braden Galloway for 6 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-14
25.9%
Uiagalelei, D.J. pass complete to Ross, Justyn for 4 yards to the CLEMSON33, PENALTY CLEMSON illegal block (Bockhorst, Matt) 14 yards to the CLEMSON15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 14
OWN 19
-9
22.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei sacked by Travon Walker for a loss of 9 yards to the Clem 10Similar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 23
OWN 10
+6
21.4%
Will Spiers punt for 51 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for 6 yds to the Geo 16 GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Block (Jermaine Burton) to the Geo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 2:0776% → 75%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
24.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Brock Bowers for 13 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-8
21.9%
JT Daniels sacked by Myles Murphy for a loss of 8 yards to the Geo 46Similar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
24.7%
Jake Camarda punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Will Taylor at the Clem 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18FG12 plays · 82 yds · 3:4022% → 30%
Q4 12:14
2ND & 4
OWN 19
0
21.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for no gain to the Clem 19Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+44
18.5%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 44 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
22.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 8 yds to the Geo 24Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+4
21.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 4 yds to the Geo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
21.4%
Uiagalelei, D.J. pass incomplete to Ladson Jr., Frank, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Ringo, Kelee) 15 yards to the GEORGIA5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
21.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Frank Ladson Jr., broken up by Latavious BriniSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2979% → 78%
Q4 8:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
21.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to James Cook for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 28Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+5
22.8%
Camarda, Jake punt 49 yards to the CLEMSON23, Taylor, Will return 8 yards to the CLEMSON31, PENALTY CLEMSON running into kicker (Carter, Barrett) 5 yards to the GEORGIA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
21.6%
Jake Camarda punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Will Taylor at the Clem 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20DOWNS8 plays · 30 yds · 2:4426% → 23%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
26.1%
Uiagalelei, D.J. pass incomplete to Ladson Jr., Frank (Speed, Ameer), PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Speed, Ameer) 14 yards to the CLEMSON39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
27.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 8 yds to the Clem 47Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
27.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Braden Galloway for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
50
-4
27.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei sacked by Jordan Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 46Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
26.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Braden Galloway, broken up by Lewis CineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21END OF GAME15 plays · 41 yds · 4:2487% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:58
Christopher Smith 74 Yd Interception Return (Jack Podlesny Kick)
-13.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:44
Zamir White run for 4 yds to the Geo 49
-10.2
FG · Q4 9:08
B.T. Potter 22 Yd Field Goal
+9.7