Try the model
RICE

Rice 17 at Arkansas 38

ARK
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Razorback Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:12 · Jordan Myers rush to Ark19 for -1 yards
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior+16.7Home team on offense−6.9Score differential−3.1Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:28: Jordan Myers rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN Collin Riccitelli extra point is GOOD. — RICE win probability +6.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:36: Wiley Green pass to August Pitre III for 41 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Collin Riccitelli extra point is GOOD. — RICE win probability +14.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:26: KJ Jefferson rush for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Cam Little extra point is GOOD. — ARK win probability +17.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q3 24:00: Cam Little 34 yard field goal is GOOD. — ARK win probability +18.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:13: Trelon Smith rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Cam Little extra point is GOOD. — ARK win probability +18.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7RICE made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:46ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:01RICE 4th & 8 at ARK 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:13RICE 4th & 9 at RICE 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:38ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:30RICE 4th & 5 at ARK 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:05RICE 4th & 7 at ARK 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:08RICE 4th & 13 at RICE 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:49ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:27ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:24RICE 4th & 9 at RICE 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:30ARK 4th & 2 at RICE 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    68.2%−3.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:12RICE 4th & 1 at ARK 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−3.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−14.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:50ARK 4th & 2 at RICE 42, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−3.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%−2.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:01RICE 4th & 20 at RICE 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−2.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 5RICE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:36ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:28RICE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:36RICE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:26ARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:13ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:30ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:10ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5290% → 90%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
90.4%
KJ Jefferson sacked at Ark23 for -5 yardsSimilar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+11
90.4%
Trelon Smith rush to Ark34 for 11 yardsSimilar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
90.2%
KJ Jefferson incomplete pass intended for Treylon BurksSimilar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
90.2%
Reid Bauer punts 43 yards to Rice23, Sean Fresch Fair CatchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:3910% → 11%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
90.2%
Khalan Griffin rush to Rice29 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+20
90.0%
Wiley Green pass to Bradley Rozner to Rice49 for 20 yardsSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
89.7%
Khalan Griffin rush to Rice49 for no gainSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
89.5%
Khalan Griffin rush to Ark49 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
89.3%
Wiley Green incomplete pass intended for Jake BaileySimilar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
89.4%
Charlie Mendes punts 49 yards to Ark0, TOUCHBACK.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3RUSHING TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:1989% → 90%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
89.4%
Trelon Smith rush to Ark40 for 20 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.4%
Trelon Smith rush to Ark40 for no gainSimilar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
89.2%
Trelon Smith rush to Ark44 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+7
89.2%
KJ Jefferson rush to Rice49 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
89.3%
Trelon Smith rush to Rice46 for 3 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+12
89.2%
Raheim Sanders rush to Rice34 for 12 yardsSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
89.0%
KJ Jefferson incomplete pass intended for Tyson MorrisSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
89.9%
KJ Jefferson rush for 34 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Cam Little extra point is GOOD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:1010% → 11%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.6%
Wiley Green pass to Jaeger Bull to Rice29 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
89.5%
Ark-Grant Morgan PENALIZED 15 yards for Ejection for TargetingSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
89.4%
Rice-PENALIZED -5 yards for False StartSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 15
OWN 39
0
89.5%
Jordan Myers rush to Rice39 for no gainSimilar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+6
89.4%
Wiley Green pass to August Pitre III to Rice45 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
89.3%
Wiley Green pass to Jordan Myers to Rice45 for no gainSimilar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+4
89.4%
Charlie Mendes punts 42 yards to Ark13, Greg Brooks Jr. returns to Ark17 for 4 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:0389% → 89%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
89.3%
Ark-Ketron Jackson Jr. PENALIZED -8 yards for Illegal BlockSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
89.2%
Trelon Smith rush to Ark11 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
89.1%
KJ Jefferson incomplete pass intended for Treylon BurksSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
88.9%
KJ Jefferson incomplete pass intended for Treylon BurksSimilar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 8
OWN 11
+16
88.8%
Reid Bauer punts 45 yards to Rice44, Sean Fresch returns to Ark40 for 16 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6FG MISSED
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:0011% → 12%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
88.8%
Ark-PENALIZED 5 yards for OffsideSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
88.4%
Luke McCaffrey incomplete pass intended for Bradley RoznerSimilar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
88.3%
Luke McCaffrey rush to Ark33 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+10
88.5%
Luke McCaffrey pass to Bradley Rozner to Ark23 for 10 yardsSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
88.0%
Ari Broussard rush to Ark22 for 1 yardSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+4
87.8%
Ari Broussard rush to Ark18 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
87.8%
Luke McCaffrey incomplete pass intended for Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 5
OPP 18
0
88.1%
Collin Riccitelli 36 yard field goal is MISSED.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7BLOCKED PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2189% → 88%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
88.5%
Ark-Treylon Burks PENALIZED -10 yards for HoldingSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 19
OWN 11
+4
88.4%
KJ Jefferson pass to De'Vion Warren to Ark15 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q1 44:00
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+6
90.5%
Trelon Smith rush to Ark21 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q1 21:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+3
90.5%
KJ Jefferson pass to Treylon Burks to Ark24 for 3 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
87.7%
Reid Bauer punt is blocked by Kenneth Orji. Plae Wyatt RETURNED from Ark21 for no gain.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8FG GOOD
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4913% → 15%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
86.9%
Khalan Griffin rush to Ark16 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+6
86.8%
Khalan Griffin rush to Ark10 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
86.7%
Wiley Green rush to Ark9 for 1 yardSimilar
Q2 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
86.5%
Rice-PENALIZED -5 yards for Illegal SubstitutionSimilar
Q2 12:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
86.7%
Wiley Green incomplete pass intended for Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q2 12:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+7
87.3%
Jordan Myers rush to Ark7 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q2 12:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
85.4%
Collin Riccitelli 25 yard field goal is GOOD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9Uncategorized
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5586% → 86%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
85.6%
Ark-De'Vion Warren PENALIZED -5 yards for Illegal Plyr DownfldSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+12
85.5%
KJ Jefferson pass to Treylon Burks to Ark30 for 12 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+6
85.8%
Trelon Smith rush to Ark36 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
85.6%
KJ Jefferson pass to Tyson Morris to Ark38 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+8
85.5%
Trelon Smith rush to Ark46 for 8 yardsSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
85.8%
KJ Jefferson pass intended for Ketron Jackson Jr. intercepted by Sean Fresch RETURNED from Ark49 for no gain.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3716% → 15%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
83.6%
Wiley Green incomplete passSimilar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
83.5%
Khalan Griffin rush to Ark45 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-2
83.3%
Cameron Montgomery rush to Ark47 for -2 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 8
OPP 47
-5
84.2%
Rice-Jack Bradley PENALIZED -5 yards for False StartSimilar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
84.9%
Charlie Mendes punts 42 yards to Ark10, Out of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0885% → 83%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
84.7%
KJ Jefferson rush to Ark18 for 8 yardsSimilar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 2
OWN 18
0
84.7%
KJ Jefferson incomplete pass intended for Treylon BurksSimilar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 2
OWN 18
-2
84.0%
Treylon Burks rush to Ark16 for -2 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
83.4%
Reid Bauer punts 25 yards to Ark41, Out of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12RUSHING TD
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:1218% → 25%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
82.5%
Khalan Griffin rush to Ark34 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
81.6%
Wiley Green incomplete pass intended for Jack BradleySimilar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+20
82.2%
Wiley Green pass to Jake Bailey to Ark14 for 20 yardsSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
81.3%
Ark-Jalen Catalon PENALIZED 7 yards for Personal FoulSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
81.2%
Khalan Griffin rush to Ark8 for -1 yardsSimilar
Q2 4:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.1%
Wiley Green incomplete pass intended for Jake BaileySimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
81.7%
Ark-LaDarrius Bishop PENALIZED 6 yards for Pass InterferenceSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
81.0%
Ari Broussard rush to Ark1 for 1 yardSimilar
Q2 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.7%
Jordan Myers rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN Collin Riccitelli extra point is GOOD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:4577% → 73%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
77.4%
Ark-PENALIZED -10 yards for HoldingSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
77.3%
Trelon Smith rush to Ark11 for no gainSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+7
76.7%
Trelon Smith rush to Ark18 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 3
OWN 18
-4
74.5%
TEAM rush to Ark14 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, recovered at Ark14 by Treylon Burks RETURNED for 0 yards.Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
73.4%
Reid Bauer punts 40 yards to Rice46, Sean Fresch Fair CatchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0027% → 10%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
72.8%
Khalan Griffin rush to Rice47 for 1 yardSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
71.9%
Khalan Griffin rush to Rice47 for no gainSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+4
72.0%
Jordan Myers rush to Ark49 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q2 46:00
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
90.5%
Charlie Mendes punts 49 yards to Ark0, TOUCHBACK.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15END OF HALF TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 6:0091% → 91%
Q2 37:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.5%
KJ Jefferson incomplete pass intended for De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q2 31:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
90.5%
Trelon Smith rush to Ark27 for 7 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3627% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.7%
Wiley Green pass to Jack Bradley to Rice30 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
71.6%
Wiley Green pass to Jaeger Bull to Rice40 for 10 yardsSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
69.9%
Khalan Griffin rush to Rice40 for no gainSimilar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
69.9%
Khalan Griffin rush to Rice41 for 1 yardSimilar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
70.2%
Wiley Green incomplete pass intended for August Pitre IIISimilar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
71.9%
Charlie Mendes punts 17 yards to Ark42, Out of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17Uncategorized
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:4574% → 72%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
73.7%
Rice-Casey Tawa PENALIZED 5 yards for Illegal MotionSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
74.0%
Trelon Smith rush to Rice47 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+1
74.4%
KJ Jefferson pass to Treylon Burks to Rice46 for 1 yardSimilar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+1
73.6%
Trelon Smith rush to Rice45 for 1 yardSimilar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+1
72.1%
KJ Jefferson rush to Rice44 for 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18PASSING TD
2 plays · 56 yds · 0:4032% → 47%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
68.0%
Wiley Green pass to August Pitre III to Ark41 for 15 yardsSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
53.4%
Wiley Green pass to August Pitre III for 41 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Collin Riccitelli extra point is GOOD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19RUSHING TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:5556% → 73%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+31
56.4%
KJ Jefferson pass to Tyson Morris to Rice26 for 31 yardsSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
58.7%
KJ Jefferson pass to De'Vion Warren to Rice16 for 10 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
58.2%
Trelon Smith rush to Rice16 for no gainSimilar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
57.7%
Trelon Smith rush to Rice9 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+4
55.5%
Trelon Smith rush to Rice5 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
73.0%
KJ Jefferson rush for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Cam Little extra point is GOOD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20Uncategorized
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:5934% → 39%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
65.9%
Jordan Myers rush to Rice23 for -2 yardsSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+35
65.7%
Luke McCaffrey pass to August Pitre III to Ark42 for 35 yardsSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
61.9%
Luke McCaffrey pass to Robert French to Ark34 for 8 yardsSimilar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+7
59.8%
Luke McCaffrey pass to Jake Bailey to Ark27 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
59.4%
Ari Broussard rush to Ark23 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
58.7%
Luke McCaffrey incomplete pass intended for August Pitre IIISimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+5
60.2%
Luke McCaffrey rush to Ark18 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 1
OPP 18
-1
61.1%
Jordan Myers rush to Ark19 for -1 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21FG GOOD
11 plays · 99 yds · 0:0065% → 84%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
64.5%
KJ Jefferson pass to Treylon Burks to Ark28 for 9 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+9
66.6%
KJ Jefferson rush to Ark37 for 9 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
64.9%
Raheim Sanders rush to Ark42 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+10
67.1%
Raheim Sanders rush to Rice48 for 10 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
67.3%
KJ Jefferson pass to Blake Kern to Rice34 for 14 yardsSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
69.1%
Raheim Sanders rush to Rice32 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+11
69.0%
Raheim Sanders rush to Rice21 for 11 yardsSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
68.8%
Raheim Sanders rush to Rice19 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+2
68.1%
Raheim Sanders rush to Rice17 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+1
65.3%
Trelon Smith rush to Rice16 for 1 yardSimilar
Q3 24:00
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
83.8%
Cam Little 34 yard field goal is GOOD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22INT
8 plays · 51 yds · 13:5925% → 35%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
75.0%
Brendan Suckley rush to Rice26 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+6
64.4%
Ark-LaDarrius Bishop PENALIZED 6 yards for Pass InterferenceSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
64.5%
Khalan Griffin rush to Rice36 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
63.5%
Ari Broussard rush to Rice41 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-10
61.8%
Rice-Isaac Klarkowski PENALIZED -10 yards for HoldingSimilar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-39
64.9%
Wiley Green pass intended for Jake Bailey intercepted by Jalen Catalon RETURNED from Ark48 for 39 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23RUSHING TD
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:4274% → 91%
Q4 13:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
73.8%
Rice-Wiley Green PENALIZED 5 yards for Block Below the WaistSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
73.8%
Ark-Myron Cunningham PENALIZED -5 yards for False StartSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
73.7%
Trelon Smith rush to Rice8 for 1 yardSimilar
Q4 13:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
73.5%
KJ Jefferson incomplete pass intended for De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q4 13:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
71.9%
Rice-Miles McCord PENALIZED 6 yards for Pass InterferenceSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.5%
Trelon Smith rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Cam Little extra point is GOOD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24INT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:2415% → 15%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.5%
Jordan Myers rush to Rice30 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
84.8%
Ark-Montaric Brown PENALIZED 15 yards for Face MaskSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
84.1%
Luke McCaffrey rush to Rice44 for -1 yardsSimilar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+2
84.7%
Luke McCaffrey rush to Rice46 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-5
85.1%
Wiley Green pass intended for August Pitre III intercepted by Montaric Brown RETURNED from Ark45 for 5 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2390% → 89%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
50
-8
90.3%
KJ Jefferson sacked at Ark42 for -8 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 18
OWN 42
0
89.7%
KJ Jefferson incomplete pass intended for De'Vion WarrenSimilar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 18
OWN 42
+16
88.9%
KJ Jefferson pass to Ketron Jackson Jr. to Rice42 for 16 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
89.4%
Reid Bauer punts 37 yards to Rice5, Out of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:4114% → 11%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
85.7%
Ari Broussard rush to Rice9 for 4 yardsSimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+2
85.8%
Jordan Myers rush to Rice11 for 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+9
86.6%
Wiley Green pass to Jake Bailey to Rice20 for 9 yardsSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
85.5%
Ark-Bumper Pool PENALIZED 15 yards for Personal FoulSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
84.7%
Jordan Myers rush to Rice36 for 1 yardSimilar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
85.9%
Wiley Green rush to Rice37 for 1 yardSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-5
86.9%
Rice-Jovaun Woolford PENALIZED -5 yards for False StartSimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-7
88.4%
Wiley Green sacked at Rice25 for -7 yards. Wiley Green FUMBLES (FF-Isaiah Nichols), recovered at Rice25 by Wiley Green RETURNED for 0 yards.Similar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
89.2%
Charlie Mendes punts 43 yards to Ark32, Out of BoundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27PASSING TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:2492% → 98%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+38
91.7%
KJ Jefferson rush to Rice30 for 38 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
92.8%
Ark-Ketron Jackson Jr. PENALIZED -10 yards for HoldingSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
92.7%
Trelon Smith rush to Rice35 for 5 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+17
92.9%
KJ Jefferson pass to Treylon Burks to Rice18 for 17 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
92.9%
Rice-Myron Morrison PENALIZED 9 yards for Personal FoulSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.5%
KJ Jefferson pass to Tyson Morris for 9 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Cam Little extra point is GOOD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 28INT
9 plays · 59 yds · 1:174% → 4%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.0%
Wiley Green incomplete pass intended for Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.0%
Wiley Green pass to Jake Bailey to Rice36 for 11 yardsSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.6%
Wiley Green incomplete pass intended for August Pitre IIISimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
95.6%
Wiley Green incomplete pass intended for Andrew MasonSimilar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+11
96.1%
Wiley Green pass to Jordan Myers to Rice47 for 11 yardsSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
95.6%
Rice-Desmyn Baker PENALIZED -5 yards for False StartSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 15
OWN 43
-4
96.1%
Wiley Green sacked at Rice38 for -4 yardsSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 19
OWN 38
-44
96.1%
Wiley Green pass intended for Andrew Mason intercepted by Jalen Catalon RETURNED from Ark40 for 44 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 29RUSHING TD
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:2798% → 100%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
97.9%
Dominique Johnson rush to Rice16 for no gainSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
98.3%
Dominique Johnson rush to Rice9 for 7 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+6
98.2%
Dominique Johnson rush to Rice3 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.6%
Dominique Johnson rush for 3 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Cam Little extra point is GOOD.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 30END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 21 yds · 29:009% → 4%
Q4 58:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.8%
Luke McCaffrey incomplete pass intended for Jake BaileySimilar
Q4 53:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
91.9%
Luke McCaffrey incomplete pass intended for Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q4 47:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.3%
Jordan Myers rush to Rice31 for 6 yardsSimilar
Q4 29:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
96.2%
Luke McCaffrey pass to Cedric Patterson III to Rice46 for 15 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 24:00
Cam Little 34 yard field goal is GOOD.
+18.6
TD · Q4 13:13
Trelon Smith rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Cam Little extra point is GOOD.
+18.6
TD · Q3 8:26
KJ Jefferson rush for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN Cam Little extra point is GOOD.
+17.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com