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ILL

Illinois 21 at Penn State 56

PSU
2020 · Week 16 · Dec 19, 2020 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-0.2PSU 84.3%Will Levis run for 4 yds for a TD (KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 21 · Q1 1:13
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:13 · Will Levis run for 4 yds for a TD ( KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior+31.5Home team on offense+0.9Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Blowout margin−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:10: Isaiah Williams pass complete to Daniel Barker for 38 yds for a TD ( KICK) — ILL win probability +2.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:04: Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds for a TD ( KICK) — PSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:32: Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd for a TD ( KICK) — PSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:49: Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 70 yds for a TD ( KICK) — PSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:20: Will Levis pass complete to Brenton Strange for 7 yds for a TD ( KICK) — PSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ILL made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 9:44PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:13PSU 4th & 3 at ILL 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.8%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−3.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:04ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:20PSU 4th & 1 at ILL 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    82.7%−1.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:32ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:49ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:09PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 9, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:44ILL 4th & 10 at PSU 33, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:04PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 45, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:13ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:20PSU 4th & 1 at ILL 7, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:45PSU 4th & 26 at PSU 14, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:38ILL 4th & 10 at PSU 48, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:04PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 24, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:03ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 35, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:32ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 39, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:48PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:06ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 9:50ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 6:10ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:13PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 14:04PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 5:32PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 3:49PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:20PSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:32PSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
88.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 75 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2INT
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
88.4%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Chase Brown for 33 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
88.4%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete, broken up by Keaton EllisSimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
88.4%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 14:48
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+9
88.4%
Isaiah Williams run for 9 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
88.4%
Mike Epstein run for no gain to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
88.4%
Isaiah Williams pass intercepted return for no gain to the PnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
88.2%
Sean Clifford run for 10 yds to the PnSt 16 Sean Clifford fumbled, forced by Devon Witherspoon, recovered by Illin Devon WitherspoonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:3612% → 13%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
88.0%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the PnSt 16Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
88.0%
Isaiah Williams run for 8 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+3
88.1%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the PnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
87.1%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Brian Hightower for 5 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0112% → 13%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+64
87.9%
Isaiah Williams run for 64 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
87.6%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 12Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+12
86.6%
Chase Brown run for 12 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
87.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 6 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-3
87.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-7
86.9%
Sean Clifford sacked by Jake Hansen for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 22Similar
Q1 9:44
4TH & 14
OWN 22
+4
86.7%
Jordan Stout punt for 45 yds , Carlos Sandy returns for 4 yds to the Illin 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:3714% → 17%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
86.0%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Daniel Barker for 12 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
85.8%
Isaiah Williams run for 5 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+8
85.8%
Isaiah Williams run for 8 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
83.4%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Daniel Barker for 38 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5784% → 84%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
84.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 9 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
84.1%
Sean Clifford run for 10 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
84.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Theo Johnson for 23 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
84.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+15
84.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 15 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
84.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+4
84.7%
Will Levis run for 4 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+1
84.5%
Will Levis run for 1 yd to the Illin 4Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+4
84.3%
Will Levis run for 4 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1317% → 16%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.5%
Isaiah Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.5%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-4
83.6%
Isaiah Williams sacked by Shaka Toney for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+50
83.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 34 yds , returns for 50 yds to the Illin 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:4085% → 87%
Q2 14:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
84.6%
Caziah Holmes run for 7 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.0%
Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
86.0%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 24 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
85.2%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-3
85.2%
Mike Epstein run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 48Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
85.9%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Daniel Barker, broken up by Daequan HardySimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
86.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 6:4886% → 90%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
85.9%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the PnSt 9Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+19
85.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 19 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
86.0%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+24
86.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 24 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
86.7%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
86.6%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the Illin 48Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+9
86.1%
Sean Clifford run for 9 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
86.1%
Will Levis run for 2 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
86.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 12 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
86.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+8
86.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 8 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
86.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
86.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 8 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+5
86.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
89.0%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
89.0%
Isaiah Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+1
89.3%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Chase Brown for 1 yd to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
89.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
95.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 70 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.9%
Mike Epstein run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.9%
Isaiah Williams run for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
94.7%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
95.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17MISSED FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 1:4796% → 97%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
96.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 7 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+16
96.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 16 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
96.2%
Caziah Holmes run for 2 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
96.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Caziah Holmes for 7 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+11
96.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 11 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
96.2%
Sean Clifford sacked by Isaiah Gay for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+8
96.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 8 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+14
96.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 14 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
96.8%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
96.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.6%
Isaiah Williams run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
95.4%
Isaiah Williams run for 6 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
95.4%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
95.4%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Daniel ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
95.4%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-6
95.4%
Isaiah Williams sacked by PJ Mustipher for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
95.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 55 yds, downed at the PnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
96.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith, broken up by Jartavius MartinSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
96.8%
Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-6
96.7%
Sean Clifford sacked by Milo Eifler for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 9Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 13
OWN 9
0
96.5%
Jordan Stout punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Carlos Sandy at the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
96.1%
Mike Epstein run for 6 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-1
96.0%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+7
96.2%
Isaiah Williams run for 7 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
95.8%
Isaiah Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+4
96.2%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Daniel Barker for 4 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
96.2%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Casey Washington, broken up by Ellis BrooksSimilar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 10
OPP 33
-6
96.3%
Isaiah Williams sacked by Antonio Shelton for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 39 Isaiah Williams fumbled, recovered by PnSt Brandon Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3697% → 98%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
97.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
97.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
97.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
97.5%
Jordan Stout punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Carlos Sandy at the Illin 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
97.2%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
97.2%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+3
97.3%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Brian Hightower for 3 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 6:13
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
97.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 4:2398% → 100%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
97.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 6 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+9
97.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 9 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
97.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 9 yds to the PENNST 44 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, targeting (Derrick Smith) to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
98.0%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+7
98.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
98.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the Illin 15Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+8
98.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 8 yds to the Illin 7Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
98.0%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the Illin 7Similar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Brenton Strange for 7 yds for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:200% → 0%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Daniel ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.8%
Will Levis run for 4 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-20
99.8%
Sean Clifford sacked by Calvin Avery for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 28 PENN ST Penalty, personal foul (Rasheed Walker) to the PnSt 14Similar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 26
OWN 14
0
99.8%
Jordan Stout punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Carlos Sandy at the PnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Mike Epstein run for no gain to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Mike Epstein run for no gain to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 42 yds, downed at the PnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
99.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 7 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+6
99.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 6 yds to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
99.9%
Will Levis run for 5 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-BrownSimilar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Will Levis pass incomplete, broken up by Isaiah GaySimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Jordan Stout punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Carlos Sandy at the Illin 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Isaiah Williams run for no gain to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Carlos Sandy, broken up by Ji'Ayir BrownSimilar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+7
99.9%
Isaiah Williams run for 7 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 5:09100% → 100%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
99.9%
Will Levis run for 13 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
99.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Caziah Holmes for 12 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
99.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 14 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
99.9%
Will Levis sacked by Jake Hansen and Jer'Zhan Newton for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+22
99.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 22 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
99.9%
Will Levis run for 8 yds to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+7
99.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 7 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd to the Illin 1Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd for a TD ( KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
100.0%
Conner Lillig run for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
100.0%
Conner Lillig run for 2 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
100.0%
Nick Fedanzo run for 2 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+1
100.0%
Deuce Spann run for 1 yd to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Hugh Robertson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 31END OF GAME
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
100.0%
Joseph Bruno run for 5 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+10
100.0%
Joseph Bruno run for 10 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
100.0%
Joseph Bruno run for 20 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
100.0%
Joseph Bruno run for 7 yds to the Illin 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:49
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 70 yds for a TD ( KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q2 5:32
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd for a TD ( KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q1 6:10
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Daniel Barker for 38 yds for a TD ( KICK)
-2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com